What is Happening with the Bullpen

The 2009 Phillies had a good season as they won the National League for the second year in a row, even though it seemed that a few aspects of the team performed under their capabilities. There is no question that Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, and Brad Lidge had less than stellar seasons. I expect all three to rebound from their 2009 seasons and based on their career numbers, they should have no problem returning to form. Rollins puts up consistent numbers when comparing seasons as a whole, Hamels never really had a bad season until 2009, and Lidge has always followed up a bad season with a career year. With an improved Rollins, the already potent lineup becomes a wrecking machine. With an improved Hamels, the Phillies rotation boasts 2 bonafide aces with the potential for a third, in Happ. With an improved Lidge, the back of the bullpen becomes solidified, but the bullpen in general still has to be viewed as the weakest part of the team.

Going into the offseason, the Phillies weaknesses were pretty easy to identify. These weaknesses were the bench, thirdbase, and most importantly, the bullpen. The Phillies significantly improved their bench with the additions of Gload, Schneider, and Castro. Even without the additions of these three players, the Phillies improved their bench dramatically just by discarding Eric Bruntlett. If that isn’t the definition of addition by subtraction, I don’t know what is. The Phillies also improved the thirdbase position as they refused to pick up the option on Pedro Feliz and then acquired Placido Polanco to replace him. That would be a classic addition by addition move. With all the moves that the Phillies have made this offseason, it seems as if they have avoided their biggest need, bullpen help. Granted there were more valuable players at other positions, but the bullpen needed the most improvement. The Phillies have officially lost Park and Myers, and the return of Eyre is still in question.

The Phillies have been rumored to be in talks with many different relievers this offseason including, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, Ron Mahay, and the latest being Mike Macdougal and Danys Baez. Lyon and Rodney could have been high on the Phillies priority list in the beginning of the offseason, but they quickly became out of the Phillies price range after devoting $18 million to Placido Polanco. This then limited the Phillies to go after a few mid-level relievers. It really is unfortunate that this free agent class is the worst class this decade. As more and more players are being signed, it seems that the Phillies are content on their current bullpen options. At first glance, this appears as a horrible decision because the Phillies bullpen was horrendous last year and they could potentially lose 4 pitchers in Myers, Park, Eyre, and Condrey. How could this be viewed as an improvement, if anything, the porous bullpen has digressed. So how can the Phillies be content on their current bullpen options? Who are these options?

These options are 47-year old Jamie Moyer and a collection of pitchers from the Phillies farm system. If you take a look at the Phillies prospects, they are bullpen heavy, and outfield heavy. Many times the relief pitching prospects will not get much attention because they will be viewed as having limited ceilings. Generally they are older prospects as they are either converted starters or were college closers. The way the Phillies have drafted in recent years, they seem to draft high potential toolsy type position players early, and then alternate between high school and college pitchers in the later rounds. Because of this, the Phillies have a smorgasbord of good relief pitchers in their farm system.

The minor league pitchers that could find themselves with a legitimate opportunity to pitch in the Phillies bullpen in 2010 are almost unlimited. There are 2 starters in Lehigh Valley that could find time in Andrew Carpenter and Joe Savery. There are 3 more starters in Reading that could see Philadelphia in Yohan Flande, Vance Worley, and Michael Stutes. And there are 4 relievers in Reading that could be given a shot in Scott Mathieson, B.J. Rosenberg, Michael “not David” Schwimmer, and Sergio Escalona. That is 11 different pitching prospects in just 2 levels, and that is not even including Antonio Bastardo who finished the season on the major league squad. All of the aforementioned pitchers have major league talent and many of them will be major league ready in 2010. The pitchers that have the best chance of appearing in the Phillies bullpen in 2010 are Mathieson, Bastardo, Escalona, Carpenter, and as a long shot, Vance Worley.

Mathieson originally was destined to start the 2010 season in triple-A but with the lack of movement by the Phillies front office, it appears that Mathieson is all but guaranteed a bullpen spot out of spring training. Mathieson, once he makes it back to the majors, will be an amazing story. Mathieson was originally a starting pitcher in the Phillies farm system and was promoted to the Phillies starting rotation in 2006. Mathieson didn’t do stellar as he fell off towards the end of the season but he showed a lot of promise in his fastball and slider. It became apparent on why Mathieson fell off during the end of the 2006 season, as he had severe elbow issues and had to be shut down due to injury. Since the end of the 2006 season, Mathieson has undergone 3 elbow surgeries, 2 of which were Tommy John surgeries. Even before the array of elbow injuries, Mathieson was projected as a future closer based on his over powering fastball and hard biting slider. After his 3 elbow surgeries it made the decision much easier to change him from starter to reliever. Mathieson made it back on the mound towards the end of this year for the first time in over 3 years and showed that the surgeries didn’t affect his ability to pitch at all. In 22 games, through 3 different levels, Mathieson was 4-0 with a 0.84 era while striking out 34 compared to only 17 hits allowed. I mentioned before that he has an overpowering fastball and that could stand as an understatement. I have witnessed on multiple occasions his fastball reaching 102 mph. With a 102 mph fastball and a good slider, it hurts to say but Billy Wagner would be a great comparison to Mathieson. Lucky for the Phillies, Mathieson is actually liked by teammates and doesn’t possess facial features or personality traits that resemble disease carrying rodents.

Antonio Bastardo is a very interesting prospect as he has been a starter in the Phillies farm system for his entire career and was thrust into the Phillies rotation in 2009 but will be expected to be a major part of the Phillies bullpen in 2010. If the Phillies do not bring Scott Eyre back, Bastardo will be the primary left-handed reliever in the Phillies bullpen, at least for the beginning portion of the 2010 season. This exists because J.C. Romero will be recovering from off-season elbow surgery and is not expected to be ready by the opening of the season. Bastardo has starting ability, there is no question about that, but currently provides more value to the Phillies as a reliever. Bastardo is 23-years old and throws a low 90s fastball, a filthy changeup, and slider. Bastardo doesn’t get much attention in terms of a young player coming up through the system. This surprises me because he has absolutely embarrassed batters in his 3 seasons in the minors. First of all, it is extremely rare for a non collegiate player to go through the farm system in less than 3 years. In Bastardo’s first full season in the Phillies system, he went 10-0 with a 2.14 era. Overall, Bastardo is 19-9 with a 2.58 era in 271 innings. What makes Bastardo such an incredible prospect is that he strikes out batters at a very good rate and he refuses to allow batters to get contact on his pitches. In his 3 seasons in the minors, Bastardo has struck out 10 batters per 9 innings and only allowed 6.7 hits per 9 innings. Bastardo appears to be very deceiving as he consistently blows batters away with his 90 mph fastball and makes them then look silly on his changeup. As a reliever, Bastardo appears almost identical to J.C. Romero, as they are both left-handed, throw the same exact pitches with almost identical throwing motions, are the same size, and are both Caribbean born. With both of these players on the team and in the same exact role, it should really benefit Bastardo as he can really learn a lot from Romero.

As long Romero is injured, Escalona will be on the major league squad as he is the next best left-handed option in the Phillies system. Escalona is a good minor league reliever as he has posted a 3.40 era in 306 innings, he has struck out 309 batters, and allowed only 294 hits. Escalona does not have electric stuff as his fastball sits at about 88-89 but he changes speeds affectively enough to get batters out. Escalona is a solid option as the second left-hander out of the pen. He wouldn’t do any worse than Jack Taschner last year.

Carpenter is also interesting because he has made a few spot starts for the Phillies in the past and will be involved in the competition for the 5th starter’s spot in spring training. Carpenter has been a good starter in the Phillies farm system for a few years even though he doesn’t appear to have dominating stuff. In 2009, Carpenter was one of the better pitchers in the International League as he was 11-6 with a 3.35 era. Carpenter usually sits in the low 90s with his fastball and throws an average slider and changeup. He projects as a decent middle reliever and could take Clay Condrey’s previous position.

A long shot to make an appearance in the Phillies bullpen would be double-A starter, Vance Worley. Worley was just drafted last year so he still is very inexperienced but the Phillies front office seems to really like Worley. Worley was being scouted by advanced scouts including Ruben Amaro Jr., during the time of Bastardo’s promotion and then again during the trade deadline. The Phillies would rather take time and develop Worley as a starter but if the other bullpen options fail, Worley could get a look.

It seems like a risky move for a championship contending team to go with a handful of unknown pitchers in the bullpen but talent usually wins out over experience. The Phillies took a similar risk in 2003 on minor league starter Ryan Madson. That year, Madson was undeniably the best reliever the Phillies had and would not have found themselves in a playoff race without him. The current options that the Phillies possess are talented enough to not be concerned about their lack of experience.

Hitting Prosect #8: Zach Collier

I said a while ago that I would be working on a prospect list, but with everything that has gone on in the past few weeks, I have gotten away from that. Worry not, I am back to the prospect list. I left off with Steven Susdorf as my #9 hitting prospect. With my eighth selection, I continue with another outfield prospect from the 2008 draft, Zach Collier.

Collier was drafted by the Phillies in the first round, 34th overall, in the 2008 draft out of Chino Hills HS in California. Collier is a classic Phillies draft choice as he is a raw but toolsy player. Collier could become an all-star caliber outfielder or just aspire to publish a book titled “another guy’s life in the minor leagues.” Collier is a very athletic outfielder who projects to have plus speed, plus power, a plus arm, a plus bat, and a plus glove. Collier is 6’2” and 185 lbs, but is only 19 years old so he should fill out more as he matures. This will add to his power potential down the road.

As Collier is extremely raw, his production in the low minors has been very poor as he has appeared overmatched by single-A pitching in 2009. Collier did fair pretty well in 2008 as he hit .271 in rookie ball but hit only .221 with 1 homerun after being promoted to Williamsport and Lakewood in 2009. Collier did show good speed though, as he swiped 20 bases in 2009. Promoting 18-year olds to single-A is definitely an aggressive promotion, so having a disappointing season is no reason to give up on them as they usually are about 2-3 years younger than their competition. A main reason that high school batters usually don’t fair too well in single-A the first time around is the adjustment to wooden bats, and of course the increased competition from high school. Many batters find it a little bit easier to hit 75 mph fastballs in high school compared to 80 mph curveballs in the minors.

A good comparison for Collier would be Shane Victorino, as they have a very similar skill set. If Collier develops like expected, he will develop 20 homerun ability which is a little better than Victorino. Similar to Collier, Victorino struggled mightily as a 19 year old in single-A, as he only hit .246 at a lower level. Collier played rightfield for Lakewood in 2009 even though he has centerfielder skills. This is because Lakewood had another prospect that is a bit faster, about 56 steals faster. Yes, you heard that correct, Anthony Gose stole 76 bases in 2009. It is tough to compete with that type of speed as another outfielder.

Collier should not be expected to reach the majors anytime soon, but this is not based on lack of talent. Collier has plenty of talent, and almost unlimited potential, but is incredibly raw. It will take a good amount of time for Collier to develop his skills, but as he gains more experience, a severe increase in production should be expected. It is fortunate for Collier and the Phillies that he was drafted so high because it will force the organization to be more patient with him. Organizations that invest high draft picks and money to young players are willing to dedicate more time for them to develop. There is no true need for the Phillies to rush Collier as Domonic Brown, Tyson Gillies, and Anthony Gose are all ahead of him in the organizational depth chart. Due to Collier’s poor performance in 2009 and the Phillies lack of pressure to push him along, he should repeat single-A at Lakewood in 2010.

Collier is going to be a hit or miss type of player. He could be an all-star or never make it to the majors. If Collier has a breakout season in 2010, he could wind up being a top 3 prospect for the Phillies. Collier could also drop out of my top 10 prospects if he repeats his 2009 performance. It is important to understand that Collier could continue to have the on the field production of Eric “the modern day Mario Mendoza” Bruntlett, but if the Phillies are patient with him, Collier should be a successful outfielder for the Phillies down the line.

Hitting Prospects
8.) Zach Collier
9.) Stephen Susdorf
10.) Kyrell Hudson

Is Happ the Next Kendrick?

Can a player's public perception be affected solely by another player's performance? In sports, athletes like to believe that they have control over how they perform and how the public views them. Philadelphian's beg to differ.

J.A. Happ put together an impressive performance in 2008, as he took over the starting duties of the failing Kyle Kendrick. Without Happ and his 2.32 era over those 4 starts, the Phillies might have never had the opportunity to breeze through the 2008 playoffs. Happ then continued to fight for a full time rotational spot in 2009, but was unfortunately inserted into the bullpen where he posted a 2.59 era. The Phillies finally realized their mistake on May 23rd, and put Happ in the rotation where he finished the season with a 2.92 era. It has been 17 seasons since a Phillies starting pitcher has posted an era that low. One would think that the public perception of a pitcher with those numbers early in his career would be unanimously high. Wrong?

Due to the recent performance of Kyle Kendrick, all successful rookie pitchers for the Phillies will be continually questioned until the day that they officially retire. If Kendrick was not part of the Phillies organization, Philadelphia would probably be praising Happ as the next Cy Young. That is not the case, instead, fans will continue to wait until he falters. They will continue to say "the league will adjust to him," or, "there's no book on him yet." Happ has pitched over 200 innings in his major league career. The MLB isn't that slow to adjust to players. Happ has appeared in 44 career games. There is more than enough game tape developed on Happ for batters to figure out what exactly he's doing out there.

The comparisons between the two pitchers are just ridiculous as they almost have nothing in common. When attempting to initially compare Happ and Kendrick, they pitch from completely different sides of the plate, and they share only one pitch. When comparing their rookie seasons, Happ had a better era, more innings, less hits per inning, more strikeouts per inning, less walks per inning, do I need to go on. How about PRAR, the measure of total value a pitcher provides, is the best utility when comparing pitchers. Happ's 2009 PRAR (41)was almost double that of Kendrick's 2007 PRAR (21).

It is true about how rookies can appear as if they are overachieving based on the league's lack of familiarity to the player. But that has to be viewed as the exception to the rule, not the rule itself. With more and more information available to players and coaches such as advanced statistics, scouting reports, and game film, it doesn't take long for the league to catch up to young players. It took the league less than 150 innings to catch up to Kendrick. If the league were to catch up to Happ, it would have happened already.

Kendrick failed in his second season because he didn't have enough reliable pitches to throw. Because of this, batters were able to sit on his sinker which allowed them to consistently hit Kendrick hard. Happ does not have this issue at all. Happ throws 4 quality pitches; a 4-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Happ also has the ability to throw all of these pitches for strikes. Like most pitchers he works off of his fastball, but what makes Happ so effective is that he throws two separate fastballs that have two separate motions. This does not allow hitters to square up on the ball, even if they are able to recognize fastball. Happ has shown the ability to work every area of the strikezone which makes him even harder to anticipate by batters. The way Happ pitches and approaches the game makes him very easy to compare to another Phillies ace. I mean Mariners ace. Yup, that's a Cliff Lee comparison. They both are lefthanded, throw the same exact pitches, and utilize all areas of the strikezone. If Happ had been in the starting rotation the entire season, Happ and Lee would have possessed the same 2009 VORP. The only reason that Lee holds a higher VORP over Happ is the difference in innings pitched. When Lee and Happ were at the same amount of innings, 166, they shared the same exact 2009 VORP of 46.7.

Another perception of Happ is that he possesses a low ceiling and is not going to improve from where he currently is. First of all, does Happ really need to improve any more from what he currently is? A 2.93 era is exactly Pedro Martinez's career era. I'd be o.k. with a Pedro Martinez era in the Phillies rotation. Obviously I am not comparing the two, just displaying how affective he's been.

Kyle Drabek was widely acknowledged as the best pitching prospect and had the highest ceiling in the Phillies' farm system. I am not disagreeing that he was the best pitching prospect in the Phillies' farm system. Fans and sportswriters all around the Philadelphia area will claim that Drabek is the better of the two down the road. I beg to differ, again. Drabek has an overpowering fastball and an amazing curveball, but that is about it as his changeup is a mediocre pitch at best. I do believe that Drabek will be a very good major league pitcher, but if you compare his minor league numbers to Happ's, they don't appear as impressive as many would think. Up to this point in Drabek's career, he has posted a 3.70 era, 8.1 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 7.6 SO/9. Throughout Happ's minorleague career, he posted a 3.34 era, 7.5 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 9.3 SO/9. As you can see, Happ has outperformed Drabek in almost every possible pitching statistic. Drabek could have a better career than Happ in the end, but based on their minorleague careers, it shouldn't be concluded that Drabek was the better long-term option.

Obviously not all Philadelphia fans have these opinions of Happ, but the beliefs do exist and I felt the need to address it, and shut them down.

The Future of Jayson Werth

I am here to regrettably admit that I was wrong on the contract statuses of Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. I originally stated that Rollins and Victorino would become free agent eligible after 2010. Rollins signed a contract extension with the Phillies in 2005 that expires at the end of 2010 but I failed to acknowledge the 2011 club option attached to the end of that. There is no reason to discuss what the Phillies will be doing with that option, as the Phillies have already exercised the 2011 option which is worth $8.5 million. Shane Victorino, on the other hand, has an additional year of arbitration, past this year.


With Victorino still being arbitration eligible for 2011, it makes the decision to lose Werth to free agency, look easier. It would seem to be a simple decision, tender Victorino, and replace Werth with highly touted prospect, Domonic Brown. If the Phillies were to go this route, it would make very good business sense but not necessarily great baseball sense. Tendering Victorino in 2011 would probably cost the Phillies about $7-8 million but it really comes down to how valuable the arbitrators view him.


Jayson Werth was one of the best corner outfielders in the league last year and is currently being severely underpaid. Werth got paid only $2.5 million in 2009 while posting the highest VORP of any rightfielder in the National League. When compared to Alex Rodriguez and his $32 million 2009 salary, Werth had 6 more homeruns, 1 less RBI, and 20 more runs. Werth is one of the most valuable players on the Phillies due to his offensive production and defensive skills. But what makes Werth so valuable to the Phillies is that he brings a much needed right-handed bat to the middle of the batting order. It is generally accepted that top prospect, Domonic Brown, will be replacing Werth if he leaves after 2010. It makes sense because Brown is a very similar player to Werth and has shown all the tools necessary to become an all-star at the major league level. Even though Brown is by far the best outfield prospect the Phillies have had since Pat “the bait” Burrell, and should be ready to replace Werth in 2011, he is not the correct replacement for Jayson Werth. This has nothing to do Brown’s abilities or the type of player he is, it is solely on the fact that replacing the Phillies’ only right-handed power bat with a left-handed rookie would dismantle the balance of the lineup.


There is no telling what the 2011 free agent market is going to hold or what type of contract Werth could expect, if and when he gets there. Jason Bay, a corner outfielder at a similar age and with similar 2009 numbers, is rumored to have been offered a $75 million contract over 5 years from the New York Mets. For the mathematically challenged, that is $15 million per year which is about double whatever Victorino can expect in arbitration. This isn’t the greatest comparison ever because the Metropolitans historically overpay for their free agents and are incredibly desperate after the embarrassing 2007, 2008, and 2009 seasons. If Werth does become a free agent in 2011 and repeats his 2009 success, a $75 million contract would not be out of the question. Aaron Rowand got $80 million in 2007, albeit that was in a better economy and is one of the worst contracts in baseball. If Werth has any inkling that he can obtain a contract of that size, then there is no way that he will be sharing a locker room with a 7 foot fuzzy green “thing,” past 2010.


When it comes down to it, the Phillies will have to decide long-term between Victorino and Werth and who fits better into the organization. The departure of Victorino seems to be a radical idea as he is an all-star, a gold glove winner, a world champion, and is under team control at a moderate price tag. Victorino was one of the building blocks for the Phillies when they turned their franchise around in 2007, but if you look at the moves that the Phillies have made in the past month, Victorino stands as the most expendable position player. Victorino has already allegedly lost his spot in the batting order due to the Placido Polanco signing. The Phillies also traded away the perfect 2011 replacement to Jayson Werth, in Michael Taylor. And after all the trades were completed, only one position player was returned to Philadelphia, a centerfielder in Tyson Gillies.


There is no questioning the value that Jayson Werth brings to the 2-time reigning National League Champions, and there is no questioning that the Phillies would love to continue with Werth past 2010. Based on how the Phillies’ major league and minor league teams are currently setup, Werth holds significantly more value than Victorino and should be kept long-term over him. I am not naïve, I understand that there can only be so many $10+ million players on one team. If the Phillies feel they can lock Werth up long-term without getting financial warnings from their accountants, then they must do this. By resigning Werth, Victorino then could not be offered arbitration in 2011 and would be pushed to free agency. Brown represents a much better replacement for Victorino than he does for Werth. The Phillies should start making an attempt to resign Werth now, at least at a preliminary level. If it gets to the end of the 2010 season and Werth is still playing under his original contract, then Werth will hit the free agent market and will be lost forever.

Who Else Does The Halladay/Lee Trades Affect

On Wednesday, the Phillies officially welcomed Roy Halladay to the “City of Brotherly Love.” That’s a severely questionable motto considering Philadelphia has murders in the stadium parking lot over lost girls and spilled beer while other fans are shooting lasers in the eyes of Albert Pujols. Murdering is a bit extreme but who doesn’t get a little heated over losing $7.00 of spilled alcohol. The welcoming of Roy Halladay is great and will undeniably make the Phillies better over the length of his contract, but with his addition the Phillies have definitely complicated their future decision making. In no way am I insinuating that this will present future problems and make the Phillies worse in the future, more that they need to rethink their future offseason plans.

The issue that I am addressing is the retention of current players during the 2011 offseason. It is clear to everyone that a significant reason behind the Cliff Lee trade was to save money. This can be perceived as ownership being cheap, but in all reality, saving money this offseason is very crucial to the future success of the Phillies organization. Next year, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth, will all become free agent eligible. Because of this, the Phillies will need a significant amount of money to keep these players as none of them will come cheap. In a perfect world, we would resign all three of these players and keep the Phillies roster completely intact. Unfortunately, unless recent billionaire Elin Woods buys the Phillies, the Phillies will only be able to resign 2 of those players due to financial constraints.

Before last year, the Phillies rarely made blockbuster type trades to impact their major league roster. Due to this, the farm system has been particularly strong in recent years, as the Phillies minorleague system was ranked #4 at the end of 2009. This allows the Phillies some flexibility with their major league roster. A loss of an impact player on the major league squad wouldn’t necessarily affect the team too much when they have good young talent to replace them with. Due to the Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee trades, the Phillies farm system doesn’t appear as it did a week ago. This isn’t necessarily bad as they lost a few elite prospects to Toronto, but at the same time, brought in a few elite prospects from Seattle. The Phillies made an attempt to replace the players lost in the Halladay trade, but they brought in a collection of prospects that differ in style to the ones departing. This relates mostly to the departing right fielder, Michael Taylor, as he was the most major league ready and the Phillies replaced him with a younger, smaller, centerfielder, in Tyson Gillies.

As I previously stated, the Phillies are looking to retain Rollins, Victorino, and Werth after next season, but it remains unrealistic that they will be able to resign all 3. Due to this, the Phillies will have to decide on whom to let go. It is obvious that they will resign Rollins. This makes it clear that the Phillies will either lose Victorino or Werth to free agency in 2011. The decision on resigning a player comes down to multiple factors; total value brought to a team, financial demands, and the ability to be replaced.

Previous to the Lee and Halladay trades, it appeared inevitable that Werth would no longer be the Phillies starting right fielder after next season. This would in turn lead to the resigning of Victorino. The key factor in allowing Werth to walk was his ability to be replaced. The Phillies had Michael Taylor who is already major league ready, and is waiting to take over Werth’s position in 2011. It would have been an incredibly easy transition for the Phillies, as Taylor is right handed and is expected to be a great fielder while being a monster at the plate. Assuming that Taylor is as good as expected, the Phillies would lose little to nothing in terms of on field production, and they would continue with their current lineup balance in the middle of the batting order.

That was before the Phillies included Michael Taylor in the Roy Halladay deal. The departure of Taylor means that top prospect, Domonic Brown, will be expected to fill that 3rd outfield position. Brown is currently in Reading but is expected to be major league ready by next season. Brown is an incredible athlete and can play all 3 outfield positions very successfully while being able to hit anywhere in the lineup. Brown started his professional career as a leadoff centerfielder but as his power and arm have developed, the Phillies have moved him to right field and in the middle of the lineup. The most unfortunate part of losing Taylor is that he was a right handed batter that fit right into the middle of the Phillies lineup. Even though Brown is viewed as the better prospect, he is a left-handed batter. The Phillies lineup is already lefty heavy, and replacing the right handed Werth with the left handed Brown would not be an intelligent move. Phillies management is smart enough to realize this, which makes Werth’s ability to be replaced go down, and in turn increases his value to the team. Due to the ability of both Werth and Brown to play centerfield successfully, the ability to replace Victorino increases dramatically. The signing of Placido Polanco adds to that effect, as Polanco is already expected to take Victorino’s spot in the batting lineup.

The minor league player that the Phillies are theoretically replacing Taylor with is centerfielder Tyson Gillies. If you have read my previous posts, you know that I believe Gillies is going to be an incredible player and is about as good as Taylor in terms of overall prospect value. Even though Gillies is an elite prospect, he is very far from Taylor in terms of the type of player he is and his current distance from the major leagues. Taylor is a middle of the lineup type player as he is a great overall hitter and projects as someone with legitimate power, where Gillies is a leadoff type hitter who will probably never develop much power at all. As I previously stated, Taylor is major league ready right now as he finished the 2008 season in Lehigh Valley, he is likely to start for the Oakland Athletics out of spring training. Gillies, on the other hand, is only 20 years old and finished the 2009 season at high A-ball. He does appear to be a very mature baseball player for his age as he was very young for his league and performed exceptionally well. Another thing to note on Gillies is that he also is left handed so he should fit right into the left handed hitting fraternity that is the Philadelphia Phillies offense. Gillies is expected to start the season at Reading and will probably stay there the entire season. With the resigning of one of our outfielders and Brown starting his major league career, an outfield spot will not need to be filled until Ibanez leaves after the 2011 season. Assuming Gillies develops like he is expected to, he should be major league ready at that time and can take over centerfield responsibilities.

With how these trades affected the Phillies minorleague system, it appears that Werth’s value has increased whereas Victorino’s value has decreased. If the Phillies lose Werth, they will have to replace him with another right handed bat, and they would have to find that bat through free agency as no options exist internally. If you go past Domonic Brown in the Phillies farm system, the next group of outfield prospects are all centerfielders. If you line up all the key factors, Victorino appears to be the odd man out, not Werth. When it comes down to it though, money will probably hold the most weight in resigning either of these two players. Both players present great value to the Phillies but if Werth continues be bombsquad material, the Phillies may find Werth a bit too expensive.

On second thought, I don't know if I want my right fielder looking like that. Now that was a questionable decision and I immediately want Michael Taylor back in the Phillies organization.

Newly Added Prospects from Halladay Trade

As I said on my previous post I am now going to go in depth on the prospects that the Phillies received in the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee trade. The Phillies received three of the top 10 prospects in the Seattle Mariners farm system which is a fair return for Cliff Lee. It is important to note that the Mariners farm system is one of the top farm systems in the league as they have many prospects that project as successful to all-star caliber major league players. The players that the Phillies received in return are centerfielder Tyson Gillies, and pitchers Phillippe Aumont and Juan Ramirez.

In this trade the Phillies were amazingly able to acquire Jimmy McGinty, the deaf tight end from the Replacements. OK, really I am talking about Tyson Gillies, as Gillies is legally deaf, he is 30% deaf in one ear and 60% in the other. Gillies appears to be by far the most impressive of the prospects that the Phillies received. He is a 20 year old centerfielder who was drafted in the 25th round in the 2006 draft out of a Vancouver high school. At first glance he appears to be an elite top of the lineup prospect with an incredibly high ceiling. In 2009 he played in the advanced A-ball league where he absolutely dominated. In 124 games he hit .341 with a .430 on-base percentage while hitting 9 homeruns and 14 triples. Gillies also stole 44 bases and had a .916 OPS. A .916 OPS is incredible for a batter at the top of the order and shows that he has the potential to be a leadoff hitter with some serious pop. Gillies has shown the ability to play great defense in centerfield as he only committed 2 errors compared to an amazing 18 outfield assists in 2009. It is important to note that at the single-A level, most leagues are considered pitcher friendly leagues. Posting the numbers that Gillies had in 2009 is extremely rare and very promising. It is very difficult to not get excited with the possibility of Gillies in the future Phillies lineup. At this point in his minor league career, Gillies appears to be an amazing leadoff hitter as he has incredible speed and a good knowledge of the strikezone as he has posted a .420 obp in his 3 years in the minors. Based on what I have seen thus far, Gillies could potentially become a 5-tool player if he develops a little more power. This isn’t a major need as he is a leadoff hitter, but it’s always nice to have homerun hitting ability. Gillies does not seem to vary too much compared to top Phillies prospect, Domonic Brown. The only difference is that Brown projects to have more power down the line. I guess we’ll see in due time. As Gillies is added to the Phillies farm system, he immediately becomes the Phillies best centerfield prospect, and as I see it, the second best position player prospect only behind Brown. Gillies will start the 2010 season in Reading and could be expected to see Philadelphia by 2012 depending on the needs of the major league squad.

Phillippe Aumont was the most highly touted prospect that the Phillies received as he was the Mariners first round draft pick in 2007 and the 11th overall pick in that draft. He is currently a 6’7” 20 year old righthanded relief pitcher who projects as a potential closer. He throws a mid-90s fastball and has been very impressive in his two years in the minors. He has posted a 3.29 ERA through 2 full seasons since being drafted and has pitched 102 innings while only giving up 91 hits compared to 109 strikeouts. Aumont finished the 2009 season at advanced-A ball as well and should start the season at Reading along with Gillies. Aumont appears to be very polished for his very young age and could be promoted very quickly. The only thing that may hold Aumont back from a quick promotion is that the Phillies’ system boasts multiple quality relief pitching prospects at the AAA and AA level. I can’t see that as an issue from the Phillies perspective, just for Aumont as he could get bored pitching to lesser talent. An interesting situation could occur in the development of Aumont as he did start his minorleague career as a starter but was converted to a reliever half way through the 2008 season. It is very possible that the Phillies have thoughts on converting him back to a starter. It will be interesting to see what happens with Aumont.

The third prospect that the Phillies received in the Halladay trade is 20 year old righthanded pitcher, Juan Ramirez, who was signed out of Nicaragua. Ramirez is the pure definition of a power arm as he throws a hard fastball that sits around 97 mph, a hard slider, and an improving changeup. Ramirez can be erratic at times, but he is 20 years old, most 20 year old pitchers are erratic. He hasn’t quite put it all together as a pitcher because he is still very raw. In his 4 years in the minors, Ramirez has posted a 4.12 era in 406 innings. Even though Ramirez is a bit erratic, batters still have a difficult time hitting him as he has only given up 369 hits in those 406 innings. Ramirez is currently a starter in advanced single-A, but with his power fastball he projects as a good reliever down the road. Ramirez is likely to start in Clearwater and could see a promotion to Reading if he develops his pitches well, especially his slider and changeup.

I was fairly distraught when I became aware that Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, and Travis D’Arnaud were traded to the Toronto Blue Jays, but after carefully researching the prospects that the Phillies received in return, I am not quite as devastated. As much as I loved Taylor, Gillies appears to be just as good of an outfield prospect even though he is a different type of prospect as his game is more concentrated on speed than power. Between the loss of Taylor and the addition of Gillies, it appears to be a wash and has no real affect on the farm system in terms of value of prospects. When comparing Drabek to Aumont, both seem to have produced about the same in terms of era, hits per 9 innings, and strikeouts per 9 innings. Drabek possesses much better off speed pitches as he might have the best curveball in the minors, but Aumont has a great fastball and is an intimidating presence on the mound as a 6’7” closer. Both have great abilities but Drabek probably holds slightly more value as he is starting pitcher. Comparing Ramirez to D’Arnaud is pretty pointless as one is a pitcher while the other one being a catcher. Anyways, both have not quite produced to their capabilities but both also have high ceilings and are very raw. Overall, the Phillies lost a marginal amount of value in their farm system, but it was equivalent to the difference in quality between Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. So all in all, the Phillies stayed about the same but get to keep their ace pitcher for a much longer period.

Halladay Trade Complete. Finally

THE PHILLIES ACQUIRE GILLIES. I just wanted to be the only person to not start their trade article with the introduction of “Happy Halladays.” The trade cannot be made official until all players pass their physicals, but the trade in principal has been agreed upon and all players that are involved are finally known. This was an incredibly weird trade as it was incorrectly reported as a three team trade. In fact this is not a three team trade; it is the Phillies making two separate trades. When it is all said and done the outcome will appear like this.

Phillies Get:

Harry Halladay. Oh you didn’t know that was his name huh
Tyson Gillies. Centerfield prospect from the Mariners
Phillippe Aumont. Pitching prospect from the Mariners
Juan Ramirez. Pitching prospect from the Mariners
$6 million from Blue Jays to pay Roy Halladay’s contract

Mariners Get:

Cliff Lee

Blue Jays Get:

Kyle Drabek. Pitching prospect from the Phillies
Michael Taylor. Outfield prospect from the Phillies
Travis D’Arnaud. Catching prospect from the Phillies.

This trade started off so simple and it grew right in front of our eyes almost as quickly as Robin Williams in the movie Jack. Originally, the Phillies were giving up only Cliff Lee and receiving only Roy Halladay. This seemed fair and benefitted the Phillies because as great as Lee is, Halladay does represent a marginal improvement. On the other end of the table, the Jays would receive whatever prospects the Phillies were given for Cliff Lee. That all seemed simple enough but the Jays felt that they were not receiving enough in return for Halladay, and I can’t disagree with that at all. The trade really took off from there as the Jays were not satisfied on the collection of prospects the Mariners were delivering. From here, the Jays started to demand certain prospects from the Phillies organization. The Phillies were originally hesitant to release some of their elite prospects but were committed to complete this deal, so they eventually let their top pitching and catching prospects go in Drabek and D’Arnaud. The Phillies were also asked to give up outfielder Domonic Brown as well, who is their top overall prospect. The Phillies were never willing to allow Brown to leave so they decided to trade outfielder Michael Taylor instead. This truly hurts and it took a lot of time for me to get over the loss of Michael Taylor, but I held it together and did not cry. I eventually accepted this, it helps that the Phillies still have Brown and many other good outfield prospects. At this point in the trade it was apparent that the Jays were more than satisfied in their return but the Phillies were giving up way too much for only one player. This then led to the Phillies renegotiating with the Mariners for more prospects just as the Jays were doing before. The Phillies ended up receiving 3 of the Mariners’ top 10 prospects in Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont, and Juan Ramirez.

In the end, these seemed to be fair trades for all teams involved. The Jays received a good amount of the Phillies’ elite prospects for Roy Halladay, the Phillies received Roy Halladay, the Mariners received Cliff Lee, and the Phillies received a good amount of the Mariners’ elite prospects.
It is funny because none of this insanity would have ever been created if Cliff Lee was willing to resign with the Phillies without going into free agency. Halladay, on the other hand, has already agreed to a 3 year extension worth $60 million which is much less than he would receive on the open market. Lee was an amazing pitcher for the Phillies, especially during the postseason. There are only a few pitchers in this league that are better than Lee, fortunately Halladay is one of those few and there are absolutely no questions that come with Halladay. I feel no need to validate that comment with statistics as I feel my readers are intelligent enough to know this. You’re welcome.

Once I became aware that this was not a three team trade and the Phillies were trading away Lee because of salary restrictions, I became infuriated with Phillies ownership. I understand the purpose of a budget and that it needs to be obeyed but it’s just not nice to acknowledge as a fan. After seeing how this trade finally ended up, I understand that trading away Lee was imperative. If the Lee trade did not occur, the Phillies would have lost too much of their farm system and the Phillies’ window of success would be seriously limited. It could have been possible that the Desi Relaford days would be revisited. Just kidding, the Phillies farm system is incredibly deep and the future remains strong.

All in all, this trade is about as fair as can be in terms of value given up and value received. It is obvious that swapping Lee with Halladay is a marginal increase. Lee has been incredible but Halladay has proven to be a cy young candidate every year. In terms of the minorleague players that were turned over throughout this trade, the Phillies gave some great prospects to the Jays but received some great prospects from the Mariners. It appears at initial glance that the Phillies farm system declined marginally. Actually, the difference that the Phillies farm system declined, seems to be the exact difference between Halladay and Lee. With almost no difference in the value received compared to value lost, the Phillies still come out significantly better because they have Halladay under control for at least three more years than they would have had Lee.

I would like to state that after a little over one season of Ruben Amaro Jr. as general manager, he has done an immaculate job. Very little was known about him and the expectations weren’t necessarily too high as he didn’t have any previous general managing experience. I can say that after being hired after the 2008 season, Amaro is questionably the best general manager in all of baseball. Yes, I did just make that claim and don’t believe it to be sensationalistic at all. Some moves that he has made were questioned but ever single move that he has made has worked out. He resigned Werth, Howard, Hamels, Eyre, Madsen, and Lidge to very reasonable contracts. Yes, even though Lidge and Hamels had subpar 2009 seasons, their contracts are still reasonable based on their career numbers. The Ibanez signing was immediately put into question but he clearly outperformed his contract, at least through the first year of it. The addition of Park and Pedro proved to be extremely valuable come the end of 2009. No words can even describe how great the original Lee deal was. This current deal cannot truly be evaluated for sometime but I can’t forecast a realistic situation where the Phillies end up losing. I feel that based on Amaro’s very brief career as the Phillies general manager, he has made great decisions and Phillies fans should be overjoyed that he is taking the Phillies far past their inferior competitors.

In my next post I will go in depth with the minor league players that the Phillies received.