Phillies Extend Victorino

On Friday the Phillies officially signed Shane Victorino to a multi-year extension. They signed him for $22 million over 3 years. $7.33 million per year is very fair for Victorino even though he was only asking for $5.8 million in arbitration this year. This keeps Victorino on the Phillies through his first year of free agency where he probably would of demanded a much larger annual salary along with more years, especially after his projected increase in power and rbi numbers in the 2010 season. Yes, that will happen while batting in the 7-hole for 162 games. This was an intelligent fiscal move by Amaro because it locks up an elite centerfielder. It is very nice to see a general manager of a championship team thinking multiple years down the road. It is also nice to see a general manager not locking players up to extensively long contracts.

The only negative one can take out of this signing would be the departure of Werth. Unless Amaro trades somebody in the offseason, Werth is guaranteed to be hitting the free agent market. From there, Werth will be gone as he will be searching a substantial pocket enhancer. I just hope that the Mets won't be pursuing him. That would blow. Even before the Victorino signing it appeared that the Phillies wouldn't be able to resign Werth, so it's not really devastating. At least our 2011 rightfielder won't be looking like this. What the hell was he thinking.

Phils Looking to Extend Victorino

The Phillies are making an attempt to resign Shane Victorino to a multi-year deal. At this point it is assumed that the deal will be 2 years in length which means almost nothing. This means little because the Phillies have Victorino under team control for the next two years anyway. Victorino has officially filed for arbitration just this past week and he will again be arbitration eligible next year. The Phillies front office has shown in the past that they do not like taking their players to arbitration.

By signing Victorino for the next two seasons, it avoids the arbitration hearings and all but guarantees that he will be on the Phillies the next two seasons. Locking up Victorino now will save the Phillies a few dollars in the long run which is always a good thing.

If the Phillies end up extending Victorino, this probably means that Werth will be gone after this year, which shouldn't come to a surprise by most. By 2011, the Phillies braintrust will be forced to decide between Victorino and Werth unless they find that magical pot of gold at the end of the Lucky Charms rainbow. This means that with Shane locked up at a reasonable price, they would have to trade him to make room for Werth's newly deepened pockets. It just seems that if the Phillies have plans on resigning Werth, Victorino wouldn't be getting a 2011 contract this soon.


Other Phillies Tids and Tats

Blanton has asked for $10.25 million in arbitration which is pretty ridiculous. $10 million is the highest ever awarded to a player in arbitration, so if it does go to the arbitrator, the Phillies will more than likely be the victors. The Phillies are offering $7.5 million.

The Phillies will be trying out Eric Gagne this week. Please no. He did not pitch at all in 2009 and posted a depressing 5.44 era in 2008. As I have made it clear before, I believe the Phillies internal options are much better than the run of the mill relief pitchers that are floating around the league. Scott Mathieson, Brian Rosenberg, Mike Zagurski, Michael Schwimer, Antonio Bastardo, and Sergio Escalona are all quality internal options.

Jimmy Rollins is getting married this weekend in the Grand Cayman's. While at his hotel there was an earthquake recorded at a magnitdue of 5.8. What is happening down there. Bobby Abreu will be his best man.

Shane Victorino has released his own clothing collection through Silverstar.

The Phillies have committed Bastardo to the bullpen. He pitched in the Dominican Winter League and did very well. He posted a 1.50 era in short relief during the regular season. It's good to see that Philadelphia will be seeing BastardBall 3-4 times a week. Get yo popcorn ready.

The Future of Jayson Werth

I am here to regrettably admit that I was wrong on the contract statuses of Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. I originally stated that Rollins and Victorino would become free agent eligible after 2010. Rollins signed a contract extension with the Phillies in 2005 that expires at the end of 2010 but I failed to acknowledge the 2011 club option attached to the end of that. There is no reason to discuss what the Phillies will be doing with that option, as the Phillies have already exercised the 2011 option which is worth $8.5 million. Shane Victorino, on the other hand, has an additional year of arbitration, past this year.


With Victorino still being arbitration eligible for 2011, it makes the decision to lose Werth to free agency, look easier. It would seem to be a simple decision, tender Victorino, and replace Werth with highly touted prospect, Domonic Brown. If the Phillies were to go this route, it would make very good business sense but not necessarily great baseball sense. Tendering Victorino in 2011 would probably cost the Phillies about $7-8 million but it really comes down to how valuable the arbitrators view him.


Jayson Werth was one of the best corner outfielders in the league last year and is currently being severely underpaid. Werth got paid only $2.5 million in 2009 while posting the highest VORP of any rightfielder in the National League. When compared to Alex Rodriguez and his $32 million 2009 salary, Werth had 6 more homeruns, 1 less RBI, and 20 more runs. Werth is one of the most valuable players on the Phillies due to his offensive production and defensive skills. But what makes Werth so valuable to the Phillies is that he brings a much needed right-handed bat to the middle of the batting order. It is generally accepted that top prospect, Domonic Brown, will be replacing Werth if he leaves after 2010. It makes sense because Brown is a very similar player to Werth and has shown all the tools necessary to become an all-star at the major league level. Even though Brown is by far the best outfield prospect the Phillies have had since Pat “the bait” Burrell, and should be ready to replace Werth in 2011, he is not the correct replacement for Jayson Werth. This has nothing to do Brown’s abilities or the type of player he is, it is solely on the fact that replacing the Phillies’ only right-handed power bat with a left-handed rookie would dismantle the balance of the lineup.


There is no telling what the 2011 free agent market is going to hold or what type of contract Werth could expect, if and when he gets there. Jason Bay, a corner outfielder at a similar age and with similar 2009 numbers, is rumored to have been offered a $75 million contract over 5 years from the New York Mets. For the mathematically challenged, that is $15 million per year which is about double whatever Victorino can expect in arbitration. This isn’t the greatest comparison ever because the Metropolitans historically overpay for their free agents and are incredibly desperate after the embarrassing 2007, 2008, and 2009 seasons. If Werth does become a free agent in 2011 and repeats his 2009 success, a $75 million contract would not be out of the question. Aaron Rowand got $80 million in 2007, albeit that was in a better economy and is one of the worst contracts in baseball. If Werth has any inkling that he can obtain a contract of that size, then there is no way that he will be sharing a locker room with a 7 foot fuzzy green “thing,” past 2010.


When it comes down to it, the Phillies will have to decide long-term between Victorino and Werth and who fits better into the organization. The departure of Victorino seems to be a radical idea as he is an all-star, a gold glove winner, a world champion, and is under team control at a moderate price tag. Victorino was one of the building blocks for the Phillies when they turned their franchise around in 2007, but if you look at the moves that the Phillies have made in the past month, Victorino stands as the most expendable position player. Victorino has already allegedly lost his spot in the batting order due to the Placido Polanco signing. The Phillies also traded away the perfect 2011 replacement to Jayson Werth, in Michael Taylor. And after all the trades were completed, only one position player was returned to Philadelphia, a centerfielder in Tyson Gillies.


There is no questioning the value that Jayson Werth brings to the 2-time reigning National League Champions, and there is no questioning that the Phillies would love to continue with Werth past 2010. Based on how the Phillies’ major league and minor league teams are currently setup, Werth holds significantly more value than Victorino and should be kept long-term over him. I am not naïve, I understand that there can only be so many $10+ million players on one team. If the Phillies feel they can lock Werth up long-term without getting financial warnings from their accountants, then they must do this. By resigning Werth, Victorino then could not be offered arbitration in 2011 and would be pushed to free agency. Brown represents a much better replacement for Victorino than he does for Werth. The Phillies should start making an attempt to resign Werth now, at least at a preliminary level. If it gets to the end of the 2010 season and Werth is still playing under his original contract, then Werth will hit the free agent market and will be lost forever.

Who Else Does The Halladay/Lee Trades Affect

On Wednesday, the Phillies officially welcomed Roy Halladay to the “City of Brotherly Love.” That’s a severely questionable motto considering Philadelphia has murders in the stadium parking lot over lost girls and spilled beer while other fans are shooting lasers in the eyes of Albert Pujols. Murdering is a bit extreme but who doesn’t get a little heated over losing $7.00 of spilled alcohol. The welcoming of Roy Halladay is great and will undeniably make the Phillies better over the length of his contract, but with his addition the Phillies have definitely complicated their future decision making. In no way am I insinuating that this will present future problems and make the Phillies worse in the future, more that they need to rethink their future offseason plans.

The issue that I am addressing is the retention of current players during the 2011 offseason. It is clear to everyone that a significant reason behind the Cliff Lee trade was to save money. This can be perceived as ownership being cheap, but in all reality, saving money this offseason is very crucial to the future success of the Phillies organization. Next year, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth, will all become free agent eligible. Because of this, the Phillies will need a significant amount of money to keep these players as none of them will come cheap. In a perfect world, we would resign all three of these players and keep the Phillies roster completely intact. Unfortunately, unless recent billionaire Elin Woods buys the Phillies, the Phillies will only be able to resign 2 of those players due to financial constraints.

Before last year, the Phillies rarely made blockbuster type trades to impact their major league roster. Due to this, the farm system has been particularly strong in recent years, as the Phillies minorleague system was ranked #4 at the end of 2009. This allows the Phillies some flexibility with their major league roster. A loss of an impact player on the major league squad wouldn’t necessarily affect the team too much when they have good young talent to replace them with. Due to the Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee trades, the Phillies farm system doesn’t appear as it did a week ago. This isn’t necessarily bad as they lost a few elite prospects to Toronto, but at the same time, brought in a few elite prospects from Seattle. The Phillies made an attempt to replace the players lost in the Halladay trade, but they brought in a collection of prospects that differ in style to the ones departing. This relates mostly to the departing right fielder, Michael Taylor, as he was the most major league ready and the Phillies replaced him with a younger, smaller, centerfielder, in Tyson Gillies.

As I previously stated, the Phillies are looking to retain Rollins, Victorino, and Werth after next season, but it remains unrealistic that they will be able to resign all 3. Due to this, the Phillies will have to decide on whom to let go. It is obvious that they will resign Rollins. This makes it clear that the Phillies will either lose Victorino or Werth to free agency in 2011. The decision on resigning a player comes down to multiple factors; total value brought to a team, financial demands, and the ability to be replaced.

Previous to the Lee and Halladay trades, it appeared inevitable that Werth would no longer be the Phillies starting right fielder after next season. This would in turn lead to the resigning of Victorino. The key factor in allowing Werth to walk was his ability to be replaced. The Phillies had Michael Taylor who is already major league ready, and is waiting to take over Werth’s position in 2011. It would have been an incredibly easy transition for the Phillies, as Taylor is right handed and is expected to be a great fielder while being a monster at the plate. Assuming that Taylor is as good as expected, the Phillies would lose little to nothing in terms of on field production, and they would continue with their current lineup balance in the middle of the batting order.

That was before the Phillies included Michael Taylor in the Roy Halladay deal. The departure of Taylor means that top prospect, Domonic Brown, will be expected to fill that 3rd outfield position. Brown is currently in Reading but is expected to be major league ready by next season. Brown is an incredible athlete and can play all 3 outfield positions very successfully while being able to hit anywhere in the lineup. Brown started his professional career as a leadoff centerfielder but as his power and arm have developed, the Phillies have moved him to right field and in the middle of the lineup. The most unfortunate part of losing Taylor is that he was a right handed batter that fit right into the middle of the Phillies lineup. Even though Brown is viewed as the better prospect, he is a left-handed batter. The Phillies lineup is already lefty heavy, and replacing the right handed Werth with the left handed Brown would not be an intelligent move. Phillies management is smart enough to realize this, which makes Werth’s ability to be replaced go down, and in turn increases his value to the team. Due to the ability of both Werth and Brown to play centerfield successfully, the ability to replace Victorino increases dramatically. The signing of Placido Polanco adds to that effect, as Polanco is already expected to take Victorino’s spot in the batting lineup.

The minor league player that the Phillies are theoretically replacing Taylor with is centerfielder Tyson Gillies. If you have read my previous posts, you know that I believe Gillies is going to be an incredible player and is about as good as Taylor in terms of overall prospect value. Even though Gillies is an elite prospect, he is very far from Taylor in terms of the type of player he is and his current distance from the major leagues. Taylor is a middle of the lineup type player as he is a great overall hitter and projects as someone with legitimate power, where Gillies is a leadoff type hitter who will probably never develop much power at all. As I previously stated, Taylor is major league ready right now as he finished the 2008 season in Lehigh Valley, he is likely to start for the Oakland Athletics out of spring training. Gillies, on the other hand, is only 20 years old and finished the 2009 season at high A-ball. He does appear to be a very mature baseball player for his age as he was very young for his league and performed exceptionally well. Another thing to note on Gillies is that he also is left handed so he should fit right into the left handed hitting fraternity that is the Philadelphia Phillies offense. Gillies is expected to start the season at Reading and will probably stay there the entire season. With the resigning of one of our outfielders and Brown starting his major league career, an outfield spot will not need to be filled until Ibanez leaves after the 2011 season. Assuming Gillies develops like he is expected to, he should be major league ready at that time and can take over centerfield responsibilities.

With how these trades affected the Phillies minorleague system, it appears that Werth’s value has increased whereas Victorino’s value has decreased. If the Phillies lose Werth, they will have to replace him with another right handed bat, and they would have to find that bat through free agency as no options exist internally. If you go past Domonic Brown in the Phillies farm system, the next group of outfield prospects are all centerfielders. If you line up all the key factors, Victorino appears to be the odd man out, not Werth. When it comes down to it though, money will probably hold the most weight in resigning either of these two players. Both players present great value to the Phillies but if Werth continues be bombsquad material, the Phillies may find Werth a bit too expensive.

On second thought, I don't know if I want my right fielder looking like that. Now that was a questionable decision and I immediately want Michael Taylor back in the Phillies organization.

How Polanco Affects the Lineup

.266, .249, .246, .211, and .248. Those are the batting averages of the Phillies third basemen over the past 5 years. With the signing of Placido Polanco the Phillies finally have brought some form of legitimacy to the thirdbase position since Scott Rolen. Fortunately for the Phillies, this third baseman will not flee to Canada in efforts to acquire national health care. But in Rolen's defense, he clearly needed that as he hasn't played an injury free season since 2006. Polanco is a career .303 hitter and is one of the most consistent hitters in the majors. He is also one of the toughest players to strikeout as he rarely strikes out more than 40 times in a season. Based on his style of hitting, Polanco is suited perfectly for the second position in the lineup which presents an interesting dilemma for Charlie Manuel.

Going into the offseason, the Phillies appeared satisfied with the top of their lineup. Rollins and Victorino have been igniting the potent Phillies lineup the past 3 seasons. The acquisition of Polanco means that these three players will occupy the 1, 2, and 7 positions in the lineup.

Typically, the 7 hitter in the lineup will have a lower batting average but will display good power. The Phillies do not have a great need to fill the 7 hole with a power hitter as they had 4 players hit over 30 homeruns in 2009 and are guaranteed to pace the NL in homeruns, again. The Phillies have never been an organization to build their team in typical fashion so why start now.

The most probable scenario on how the lineup will be setup is Jimmy Rollins leading off, followed by Polanco, and Victorino will be moved down to the 7th spot. In the end, it won't matter where these three players hit as all three are good professional hitters that can generally be inserted anywhere throughout the lineup.

When carefully analyzing these three players it would make sense theoretically for the Phillies to remove Jimmy Rollins from the leadoff position. It is imperative that the top 2 hitters in a lineup have high on-base percentages while placing players with better power numbers lower in the lineup. While taking this into effect, Victorino and Polanco should be placed first and second in the lineup and Rollins should be dropped to 7th. Rollins historically owns low on-base percentages but has improved his power numbers significantly in the past 3 seasons.

Jimmy Rollins may be the hardest player on the Phillies roster to analyze as he can be the best player one week and the worst player the next. Many people will acknowledge that Rollins had a disappointing 2009 season. Whether Rollins can revisit his 2007 MVP season is unknown. If Rollins 2009 season does not prove to be an anomaly, then he he presents the best fit for the 7th spot in the Phillies lineup. Rollins had a sub .300 OBP while hitting an impressive 21 homeruns and 43 doubles in 2009.

As Rollins statistically proves to be the best fit for the 7th spot in the lineup, moving Rollins to that position should and never will happen. Of all major American sports, baseball is the most statistically analyzed sport. In this scenario, statistically comparing these players is the incorrect approach. Removing Rollins from the leadoff position would adversely affect the Phillies offense. Even though it makes sense based on Rollins statistics to drop him in the lineup, Rollins performs worse along with the Phillies offense, when he is removed from the leadoff position. This can be easily compared to the Yankees scenario when they acquired Alex Rodriguez in 2004. I promise this will be the last time I compare these two organizations. In any matter, it would have made sense for the Yankees to place A-Roid at the SS position as he is a much better defensive SS than Derek Jeter, but they couldn't do this because it would affect the organization too much as Jeter was the leader of the Yankees.

This is one of the rare situations where batting statistics should be ignored. Rollins needs to be the leadoff hitter for the Phillies because when he succeeds as a leadoff hitter, the Phillies are almost an unbeatable team. In 2009, the Phillies were an astounding 61-19 when Rollins scored a run. Whether you are J-Roll fan or not, you cannot disagree that he is the leader of the team and demoting him in any fashion would hurt the Phillies offense. This is why I believe the Phillies never seriously considered Chone Figgins, irrelevant of his reported high price tag.

With the lack mobility of Rollins throughout the lineup, Polanco deserves the 2nd position because he posts a higher batting average while Victorino can hit with significantly more power. Victorino hit only 10 homeruns in 2009 but being placed lower in the lineup should change his approach to hitting. If Victorino is asked to place an emphasis on power over batting average, I believe he has the ability to be a 20 homerun hitter. There are certain hitters that have the ability to hit with more power in this league but choose not to because it benefits the team more when they place an emphasis on their on-base percentage. Victorino is one of those players and when placing him in the 7th hole for 162 games, fans should see a surprising rise in his power numbers.

After everything is taken into account, the Phillies will appear a little different offensively but will be much better for it. Now just imagine if Carlos Ruiz could play the regular season like he plays the postseason. The Phillies would then be too good for the National League and should be allowed to start their own league called the "Let Me Know When the World Series Starts League."