Is Happ the Next Kendrick?

Can a player's public perception be affected solely by another player's performance? In sports, athletes like to believe that they have control over how they perform and how the public views them. Philadelphian's beg to differ.

J.A. Happ put together an impressive performance in 2008, as he took over the starting duties of the failing Kyle Kendrick. Without Happ and his 2.32 era over those 4 starts, the Phillies might have never had the opportunity to breeze through the 2008 playoffs. Happ then continued to fight for a full time rotational spot in 2009, but was unfortunately inserted into the bullpen where he posted a 2.59 era. The Phillies finally realized their mistake on May 23rd, and put Happ in the rotation where he finished the season with a 2.92 era. It has been 17 seasons since a Phillies starting pitcher has posted an era that low. One would think that the public perception of a pitcher with those numbers early in his career would be unanimously high. Wrong?

Due to the recent performance of Kyle Kendrick, all successful rookie pitchers for the Phillies will be continually questioned until the day that they officially retire. If Kendrick was not part of the Phillies organization, Philadelphia would probably be praising Happ as the next Cy Young. That is not the case, instead, fans will continue to wait until he falters. They will continue to say "the league will adjust to him," or, "there's no book on him yet." Happ has pitched over 200 innings in his major league career. The MLB isn't that slow to adjust to players. Happ has appeared in 44 career games. There is more than enough game tape developed on Happ for batters to figure out what exactly he's doing out there.

The comparisons between the two pitchers are just ridiculous as they almost have nothing in common. When attempting to initially compare Happ and Kendrick, they pitch from completely different sides of the plate, and they share only one pitch. When comparing their rookie seasons, Happ had a better era, more innings, less hits per inning, more strikeouts per inning, less walks per inning, do I need to go on. How about PRAR, the measure of total value a pitcher provides, is the best utility when comparing pitchers. Happ's 2009 PRAR (41)was almost double that of Kendrick's 2007 PRAR (21).

It is true about how rookies can appear as if they are overachieving based on the league's lack of familiarity to the player. But that has to be viewed as the exception to the rule, not the rule itself. With more and more information available to players and coaches such as advanced statistics, scouting reports, and game film, it doesn't take long for the league to catch up to young players. It took the league less than 150 innings to catch up to Kendrick. If the league were to catch up to Happ, it would have happened already.

Kendrick failed in his second season because he didn't have enough reliable pitches to throw. Because of this, batters were able to sit on his sinker which allowed them to consistently hit Kendrick hard. Happ does not have this issue at all. Happ throws 4 quality pitches; a 4-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Happ also has the ability to throw all of these pitches for strikes. Like most pitchers he works off of his fastball, but what makes Happ so effective is that he throws two separate fastballs that have two separate motions. This does not allow hitters to square up on the ball, even if they are able to recognize fastball. Happ has shown the ability to work every area of the strikezone which makes him even harder to anticipate by batters. The way Happ pitches and approaches the game makes him very easy to compare to another Phillies ace. I mean Mariners ace. Yup, that's a Cliff Lee comparison. They both are lefthanded, throw the same exact pitches, and utilize all areas of the strikezone. If Happ had been in the starting rotation the entire season, Happ and Lee would have possessed the same 2009 VORP. The only reason that Lee holds a higher VORP over Happ is the difference in innings pitched. When Lee and Happ were at the same amount of innings, 166, they shared the same exact 2009 VORP of 46.7.

Another perception of Happ is that he possesses a low ceiling and is not going to improve from where he currently is. First of all, does Happ really need to improve any more from what he currently is? A 2.93 era is exactly Pedro Martinez's career era. I'd be o.k. with a Pedro Martinez era in the Phillies rotation. Obviously I am not comparing the two, just displaying how affective he's been.

Kyle Drabek was widely acknowledged as the best pitching prospect and had the highest ceiling in the Phillies' farm system. I am not disagreeing that he was the best pitching prospect in the Phillies' farm system. Fans and sportswriters all around the Philadelphia area will claim that Drabek is the better of the two down the road. I beg to differ, again. Drabek has an overpowering fastball and an amazing curveball, but that is about it as his changeup is a mediocre pitch at best. I do believe that Drabek will be a very good major league pitcher, but if you compare his minor league numbers to Happ's, they don't appear as impressive as many would think. Up to this point in Drabek's career, he has posted a 3.70 era, 8.1 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 7.6 SO/9. Throughout Happ's minorleague career, he posted a 3.34 era, 7.5 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 9.3 SO/9. As you can see, Happ has outperformed Drabek in almost every possible pitching statistic. Drabek could have a better career than Happ in the end, but based on their minorleague careers, it shouldn't be concluded that Drabek was the better long-term option.

Obviously not all Philadelphia fans have these opinions of Happ, but the beliefs do exist and I felt the need to address it, and shut them down.

Halladay Trade Complete. Finally

THE PHILLIES ACQUIRE GILLIES. I just wanted to be the only person to not start their trade article with the introduction of “Happy Halladays.” The trade cannot be made official until all players pass their physicals, but the trade in principal has been agreed upon and all players that are involved are finally known. This was an incredibly weird trade as it was incorrectly reported as a three team trade. In fact this is not a three team trade; it is the Phillies making two separate trades. When it is all said and done the outcome will appear like this.

Phillies Get:

Harry Halladay. Oh you didn’t know that was his name huh
Tyson Gillies. Centerfield prospect from the Mariners
Phillippe Aumont. Pitching prospect from the Mariners
Juan Ramirez. Pitching prospect from the Mariners
$6 million from Blue Jays to pay Roy Halladay’s contract

Mariners Get:

Cliff Lee

Blue Jays Get:

Kyle Drabek. Pitching prospect from the Phillies
Michael Taylor. Outfield prospect from the Phillies
Travis D’Arnaud. Catching prospect from the Phillies.

This trade started off so simple and it grew right in front of our eyes almost as quickly as Robin Williams in the movie Jack. Originally, the Phillies were giving up only Cliff Lee and receiving only Roy Halladay. This seemed fair and benefitted the Phillies because as great as Lee is, Halladay does represent a marginal improvement. On the other end of the table, the Jays would receive whatever prospects the Phillies were given for Cliff Lee. That all seemed simple enough but the Jays felt that they were not receiving enough in return for Halladay, and I can’t disagree with that at all. The trade really took off from there as the Jays were not satisfied on the collection of prospects the Mariners were delivering. From here, the Jays started to demand certain prospects from the Phillies organization. The Phillies were originally hesitant to release some of their elite prospects but were committed to complete this deal, so they eventually let their top pitching and catching prospects go in Drabek and D’Arnaud. The Phillies were also asked to give up outfielder Domonic Brown as well, who is their top overall prospect. The Phillies were never willing to allow Brown to leave so they decided to trade outfielder Michael Taylor instead. This truly hurts and it took a lot of time for me to get over the loss of Michael Taylor, but I held it together and did not cry. I eventually accepted this, it helps that the Phillies still have Brown and many other good outfield prospects. At this point in the trade it was apparent that the Jays were more than satisfied in their return but the Phillies were giving up way too much for only one player. This then led to the Phillies renegotiating with the Mariners for more prospects just as the Jays were doing before. The Phillies ended up receiving 3 of the Mariners’ top 10 prospects in Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont, and Juan Ramirez.

In the end, these seemed to be fair trades for all teams involved. The Jays received a good amount of the Phillies’ elite prospects for Roy Halladay, the Phillies received Roy Halladay, the Mariners received Cliff Lee, and the Phillies received a good amount of the Mariners’ elite prospects.
It is funny because none of this insanity would have ever been created if Cliff Lee was willing to resign with the Phillies without going into free agency. Halladay, on the other hand, has already agreed to a 3 year extension worth $60 million which is much less than he would receive on the open market. Lee was an amazing pitcher for the Phillies, especially during the postseason. There are only a few pitchers in this league that are better than Lee, fortunately Halladay is one of those few and there are absolutely no questions that come with Halladay. I feel no need to validate that comment with statistics as I feel my readers are intelligent enough to know this. You’re welcome.

Once I became aware that this was not a three team trade and the Phillies were trading away Lee because of salary restrictions, I became infuriated with Phillies ownership. I understand the purpose of a budget and that it needs to be obeyed but it’s just not nice to acknowledge as a fan. After seeing how this trade finally ended up, I understand that trading away Lee was imperative. If the Lee trade did not occur, the Phillies would have lost too much of their farm system and the Phillies’ window of success would be seriously limited. It could have been possible that the Desi Relaford days would be revisited. Just kidding, the Phillies farm system is incredibly deep and the future remains strong.

All in all, this trade is about as fair as can be in terms of value given up and value received. It is obvious that swapping Lee with Halladay is a marginal increase. Lee has been incredible but Halladay has proven to be a cy young candidate every year. In terms of the minorleague players that were turned over throughout this trade, the Phillies gave some great prospects to the Jays but received some great prospects from the Mariners. It appears at initial glance that the Phillies farm system declined marginally. Actually, the difference that the Phillies farm system declined, seems to be the exact difference between Halladay and Lee. With almost no difference in the value received compared to value lost, the Phillies still come out significantly better because they have Halladay under control for at least three more years than they would have had Lee.

I would like to state that after a little over one season of Ruben Amaro Jr. as general manager, he has done an immaculate job. Very little was known about him and the expectations weren’t necessarily too high as he didn’t have any previous general managing experience. I can say that after being hired after the 2008 season, Amaro is questionably the best general manager in all of baseball. Yes, I did just make that claim and don’t believe it to be sensationalistic at all. Some moves that he has made were questioned but ever single move that he has made has worked out. He resigned Werth, Howard, Hamels, Eyre, Madsen, and Lidge to very reasonable contracts. Yes, even though Lidge and Hamels had subpar 2009 seasons, their contracts are still reasonable based on their career numbers. The Ibanez signing was immediately put into question but he clearly outperformed his contract, at least through the first year of it. The addition of Park and Pedro proved to be extremely valuable come the end of 2009. No words can even describe how great the original Lee deal was. This current deal cannot truly be evaluated for sometime but I can’t forecast a realistic situation where the Phillies end up losing. I feel that based on Amaro’s very brief career as the Phillies general manager, he has made great decisions and Phillies fans should be overjoyed that he is taking the Phillies far past their inferior competitors.

In my next post I will go in depth with the minor league players that the Phillies received.

Who's Pitching on that 5th Day

An issue on the Phillies' roster that nobody seems to be addressing is the fifth spot in the starting rotation. As the 2009 season commenced, Pedro Martinez held the fifth spot but is unlikely to return. The Phillies have many internal options to fill this position which is very fortunate, and to be quite honest, necessary. The Phillies had 5 different pitchers that started in the 5th spot during the 2009 season.

The current options that exist for the Phillies at the 5th spot are Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Drew Carpenter, and Kyle Drabek. It seems as if the Phillies will not be pursuing free agents to fill the final starting pitching role as they are concentrating on other areas of the team.

Jamie Moyer is about to be a card carrying member of the AARP but still finds himself competing in Major League Baseball. He has an astounding 258 career wins and will always be a fan favorite in Philadelphia as he grew up only 30 miles north of a row of Port-o-Potties, or where Veterans Stadium once stood. Moyer had a very successful 2008 season as he posted 16 wins and a 3.71 ERA, but declined significantly in 2009 as he had a 4.94 ERA and was demoted to the bullpen in August. Good pitchers are bound to have bad years, but with Moyer, any sort of failure will be associated with his age and whether or not he has lost his ability to pitch. A congratulations goes out to Jamie as he just turned 47 on Wednesday, not a welcome event for many, but Jamie has been considered an old player in this league for over 10 years so what's another year. Another concern with Moyer is that he recently underwent groin surgery, he still will be considered to have a very good chance to nail down the 5th spot in the roation.

Ever since Kyle Kendrick won 10 games as a rookie in 2007, the Phillies organization has been very high on him. Kendrick tailed off in 2008 though as it seemed the league was figuring him out and he eventually was pulled from the rotation. in 2009 the Phillies had an open competition for the 5th starter's spot and gave every opportunity to Kendrick to come away with it. Kendrick unfortunately floundered and was sent to Lehigh Valley. Kendrick pitched the majority of the season in Lehigh Valley in an effort to develop a changeup. Kendrick responded to this assignment exceptionally well as he finished the season ranked 5th in ERA, 10th in innings, and most importantly, 2nd in WHIP. The WHIP is most important for Kendrick as the reason he was demoted was because he allowed too many baserunners which led to his unsuccessful 2008 season. Kendrick did have the opportunity to pitch for Philadelphia toward the end of the 2009 season and performed very successfully. Kendrick pitched a total of 26 innings with a 3.4 ERA and it would have been a 2.66 ERA if it wasn't for an irrelevant, last day of the season, appearence. The Phillies would love to see Kendrick succeed as the 5th pitcher in their rotation and will give him the opportunity to do so.

Drew Carpenter is an interesting option as not many people have given him attention and he is well deserving of it. Carpenter made a spot start early in 2009 and earned a victory in a rain shortened game but was not particularly impressive as he yielded 5 runs in 4.1 innings. I don't believe you can take much out of debuts as it is a poor assessment of a pitcher and his abilities. Carpenter is only 24 years old and has had a very successful minorleague career. 2009 in particular, was a very good season for Carpenter, while at Lehigh Valley, he finished 6th in ERA, 4th in wins, 3rd in innings, and 6th in SOs. Carpenter does have the ability to succeed now in the majors. He projects to be a pitcher like Joe Blanton, as he has a large frame, throws in the low 90s, is very consistent while unspectacular, and can throw multiple pitches for strikes. Carpenter does seem to be the odd man out in this competition but don't count him out if he has an impressive spring training.

Kyle Drabek will find himself in a similar situation as Carlos Carrasco did in 2008. The Phillies will give Drabek an opportunity to compete for the final rotation spot out of spring training but Drabek will have to truly impress. The Phillies really love the abilities of Drabek but would like to give him a little more time in the minors. Drabek is currently rated as the #1 pitching prospect in the Phillies farm system. He is the pure definition of a power pitcher as he can throw in upwards of 98 MPH with a power curveball and an improving changeup. Even though Drabek's fastball usually sits from 94-96, his curveball is widely acknowledged as his best pitch. As Drabek is still only 21 years old, he can benefit from more time in the minors but is still expected to debut sometime in the second half of the 2010 season.

As the Phillies have multiple internal options, it isn't imperitive that they make the correct decision immediately, compared to other needs that will be filled through free agency. All of these players will remain in the Phillies organization so they may all get an opportunity to succeed. Jamie Moyer has had an amazing career and remains a great asset to the Phillies, but if the Phillies named Jamie Moyer the 5th starter, that would have to be viewed as taking a step backwards after demoting him last year before showing any significant improvement. Drabek is by far the most talented within this group but is not quite ready to start for Philadelphia in April. After a few more months in the minors, Drabek will be better suited to succeed as a starter for the Phillies. The best options that the Phillies hold at the beginning of the 2010 season are Kendrick and Carpenter. The Phillies should award the 5th starter position to the candidate who succeeds more in spring training between these two. If the competition remains close at all there is no doubt that the Phillies will go with Kyle Kendrick.

I believe that Kendrick will start the season as the Phillies 5th starter and Drabek will take over some time in the second half of the season.