THE PHILLIES ACQUIRE GILLIES. I just wanted to be the only person to not start their trade article with the introduction of “Happy Halladays.” The trade cannot be made official until all players pass their physicals, but the trade in principal has been agreed upon and all players that are involved are finally known. This was an incredibly weird trade as it was incorrectly reported as a three team trade. In fact this is not a three team trade; it is the Phillies making two separate trades. When it is all said and done the outcome will appear like this.
Phillies Get:
Harry Halladay. Oh you didn’t know that was his name huh
Tyson Gillies. Centerfield prospect from the Mariners
Phillippe Aumont. Pitching prospect from the Mariners
Juan Ramirez. Pitching prospect from the Mariners
$6 million from Blue Jays to pay Roy Halladay’s contract
Mariners Get:
Cliff Lee
Blue Jays Get:
Kyle Drabek. Pitching prospect from the Phillies
Michael Taylor. Outfield prospect from the Phillies
Travis D’Arnaud. Catching prospect from the Phillies.
This trade started off so simple and it grew right in front of our eyes almost as quickly as Robin Williams in the movie Jack. Originally, the Phillies were giving up only Cliff Lee and receiving only Roy Halladay. This seemed fair and benefitted the Phillies because as great as Lee is, Halladay does represent a marginal improvement. On the other end of the table, the Jays would receive whatever prospects the Phillies were given for Cliff Lee. That all seemed simple enough but the Jays felt that they were not receiving enough in return for Halladay, and I can’t disagree with that at all. The trade really took off from there as the Jays were not satisfied on the collection of prospects the Mariners were delivering. From here, the Jays started to demand certain prospects from the Phillies organization. The Phillies were originally hesitant to release some of their elite prospects but were committed to complete this deal, so they eventually let their top pitching and catching prospects go in Drabek and D’Arnaud. The Phillies were also asked to give up outfielder Domonic Brown as well, who is their top overall prospect. The Phillies were never willing to allow Brown to leave so they decided to trade outfielder Michael Taylor instead. This truly hurts and it took a lot of time for me to get over the loss of Michael Taylor, but I held it together and did not cry. I eventually accepted this, it helps that the Phillies still have Brown and many other good outfield prospects. At this point in the trade it was apparent that the Jays were more than satisfied in their return but the Phillies were giving up way too much for only one player. This then led to the Phillies renegotiating with the Mariners for more prospects just as the Jays were doing before. The Phillies ended up receiving 3 of the Mariners’ top 10 prospects in Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont, and Juan Ramirez.
In the end, these seemed to be fair trades for all teams involved. The Jays received a good amount of the Phillies’ elite prospects for Roy Halladay, the Phillies received Roy Halladay, the Mariners received Cliff Lee, and the Phillies received a good amount of the Mariners’ elite prospects.
It is funny because none of this insanity would have ever been created if Cliff Lee was willing to resign with the Phillies without going into free agency. Halladay, on the other hand, has already agreed to a 3 year extension worth $60 million which is much less than he would receive on the open market. Lee was an amazing pitcher for the Phillies, especially during the postseason. There are only a few pitchers in this league that are better than Lee, fortunately Halladay is one of those few and there are absolutely no questions that come with Halladay. I feel no need to validate that comment with statistics as I feel my readers are intelligent enough to know this. You’re welcome.
Once I became aware that this was not a three team trade and the Phillies were trading away Lee because of salary restrictions, I became infuriated with Phillies ownership. I understand the purpose of a budget and that it needs to be obeyed but it’s just not nice to acknowledge as a fan. After seeing how this trade finally ended up, I understand that trading away Lee was imperative. If the Lee trade did not occur, the Phillies would have lost too much of their farm system and the Phillies’ window of success would be seriously limited. It could have been possible that the Desi Relaford days would be revisited. Just kidding, the Phillies farm system is incredibly deep and the future remains strong.
All in all, this trade is about as fair as can be in terms of value given up and value received. It is obvious that swapping Lee with Halladay is a marginal increase. Lee has been incredible but Halladay has proven to be a cy young candidate every year. In terms of the minorleague players that were turned over throughout this trade, the Phillies gave some great prospects to the Jays but received some great prospects from the Mariners. It appears at initial glance that the Phillies farm system declined marginally. Actually, the difference that the Phillies farm system declined, seems to be the exact difference between Halladay and Lee. With almost no difference in the value received compared to value lost, the Phillies still come out significantly better because they have Halladay under control for at least three more years than they would have had Lee.
I would like to state that after a little over one season of Ruben Amaro Jr. as general manager, he has done an immaculate job. Very little was known about him and the expectations weren’t necessarily too high as he didn’t have any previous general managing experience. I can say that after being hired after the 2008 season, Amaro is questionably the best general manager in all of baseball. Yes, I did just make that claim and don’t believe it to be sensationalistic at all. Some moves that he has made were questioned but ever single move that he has made has worked out. He resigned Werth, Howard, Hamels, Eyre, Madsen, and Lidge to very reasonable contracts. Yes, even though Lidge and Hamels had subpar 2009 seasons, their contracts are still reasonable based on their career numbers. The Ibanez signing was immediately put into question but he clearly outperformed his contract, at least through the first year of it. The addition of Park and Pedro proved to be extremely valuable come the end of 2009. No words can even describe how great the original Lee deal was. This current deal cannot truly be evaluated for sometime but I can’t forecast a realistic situation where the Phillies end up losing. I feel that based on Amaro’s very brief career as the Phillies general manager, he has made great decisions and Phillies fans should be overjoyed that he is taking the Phillies far past their inferior competitors.
In my next post I will go in depth with the minor league players that the Phillies received.
Showing posts with label Roy Halladay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roy Halladay. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
Roy Halladay why are doing this to us?
Roy Halladay has finally been traded to the Phillies. Really, has he? What did they give up? What is the total package they got in return? Will he shave the ginger beard now that he doesn't play in Canada? Not one of those questions can be answered. It does seem inevitable that Halladay will be traded to the Phillies but what it takes to bring him to Philadelphia is still up in the air. Not only is it currently up in the air, but it seems to be changing by the second.
As it is currently being reported, this is a three team trade involving the Phillies, Jays, and Mariners. The Phillies are expected to receive Roy Halladay from the Jays and two prospects from the Mariners. The Jays are expected to receive top pitching prospect, Phillippe Aumont, from the Mariners, along with catching prospect, Travis D'Arnaud, and outfield prospect, Michael Taylor, both of which will be coming from the Phillies organization. The Mariners, in return for their prospects, will receive Clifford Lee from the Phillies.
This story was originally released at about 2 p.m. on Monday. At that time the Phillies were trading away Lee and getting Halladay in return. A few hours later, Taylor was reportedly added. A few hours later, D'Arnaud was added to the imaginary list. I am now hearing that the Phillies top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, is being added to this novel of rumors. Below is the list of players I have heard that were involved in this potential trade. Cliff Lee, JA Happ, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Drabek, Antononio Bastardo, Domonic Brown, Michael Taylor, Travis D'Arnaud. I am soon expecting to see the entire Reading Phillies on this list.
The reason that the Phillies are looking to replace Lee with Halladay, is that Halladay is willing to sign a long-term deal past this season where Lee has stated he is going to test the free agent market. This trade will not be officially announced until both parties agree in terms to a contract extension. At this point it appears that Halladay will sign an extension for 3 years at $60 million with a mutual option for at least one more year. This is a fair contract as Halladay is in his prime and is one of the best pitchers in this league.
This trade should be finalized sometime tomorrow. The current holdup is deciding on what prospects to involve. For this reason I am going to wait on assessing the trade until it is determined which team is officially getting what. It does concern me on how long it is taking to finalize, as it seems every time this trade is updated, the Phillies are giving up more and more minorleague talent.
It should also be worth noting that J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, and Domonic Brown, were all in Philadelphia today to take physicals. None of them appear to be involved in the current trade but it this could still take off in any direction, so who knows.
As it is currently being reported, this is a three team trade involving the Phillies, Jays, and Mariners. The Phillies are expected to receive Roy Halladay from the Jays and two prospects from the Mariners. The Jays are expected to receive top pitching prospect, Phillippe Aumont, from the Mariners, along with catching prospect, Travis D'Arnaud, and outfield prospect, Michael Taylor, both of which will be coming from the Phillies organization. The Mariners, in return for their prospects, will receive Clifford Lee from the Phillies.
This story was originally released at about 2 p.m. on Monday. At that time the Phillies were trading away Lee and getting Halladay in return. A few hours later, Taylor was reportedly added. A few hours later, D'Arnaud was added to the imaginary list. I am now hearing that the Phillies top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, is being added to this novel of rumors. Below is the list of players I have heard that were involved in this potential trade. Cliff Lee, JA Happ, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Drabek, Antononio Bastardo, Domonic Brown, Michael Taylor, Travis D'Arnaud. I am soon expecting to see the entire Reading Phillies on this list.
The reason that the Phillies are looking to replace Lee with Halladay, is that Halladay is willing to sign a long-term deal past this season where Lee has stated he is going to test the free agent market. This trade will not be officially announced until both parties agree in terms to a contract extension. At this point it appears that Halladay will sign an extension for 3 years at $60 million with a mutual option for at least one more year. This is a fair contract as Halladay is in his prime and is one of the best pitchers in this league.
This trade should be finalized sometime tomorrow. The current holdup is deciding on what prospects to involve. For this reason I am going to wait on assessing the trade until it is determined which team is officially getting what. It does concern me on how long it is taking to finalize, as it seems every time this trade is updated, the Phillies are giving up more and more minorleague talent.
It should also be worth noting that J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton, and Domonic Brown, were all in Philadelphia today to take physicals. None of them appear to be involved in the current trade but it this could still take off in any direction, so who knows.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
More on Halladay
The Halladay trade rumors have delivered yet another scenario. Even though at the same time, Phillies management has denied any involvement in the trade talks. Take that for what you will, but I believe that anything an organization states publicly means nothing. Philadelphia's current front office seems to be very successful at deceiving the media which is a great thing. Not necessarily for the devoted readers of phillienation.blogspot.com, but for the success of the organization. If the Phillies didn't do this last year, Cliff Lee would probably be donning Dodger Blue. Last year, the Phillies were associated with Halladay trade talks for weeks but only associated with Lee trade talks for about 64 minutes. I would count that as a win for Phillies management as it seemed to work out.
My opinion remains unchanged on whether or not the Phillies should trade for Halladay. As I originally said, the base package of the rumored trade includes J.A. Happ and Domonic Brown, but if the trade is to be completed, more prospects will be included. Based on Philadelphia radio speculation, those additional prospects are Antonio Bastardo and Anthony Hewitt.
After a full season of Ruben Amaro Jr. as general manager, I have faith that Amaro will not be desperate or stupid enough to make this trade. If the Phillies refused to pull the trigger on the Halladay trade last year, then there is no way that the Phillies will complete this trade. Last year, the Phillies organization approached the Halladay trade intelligently and conservatively. Obviously Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in this league and would be a great addition to any team, but trading away too much future talent for any one player for a short-term period is irresponsible. During last year's trade rumors, the Phillies were reported to have 3 players that were "untouchable." Those 3 players were Kyle Drabek, Domonic Brown, and Antonio Bastardo. With the midseason addition of Lee, it would make no sense for the Phillies to all of a sudden release the "untouchable" label for 2 of those players.
I have already made it clear on my opinions of Happ and why he should be kept. Brown, even though he is an elite 5-tool prospect, could be made available for a trade because Michael Taylor plays the same position and is more major league ready at this point in his career. Bastardo, is an amazing talent and will be counted on this year as a lefthanded reliever. I honestly don't understand why Bastardo isn't valued as highly as Drabek, as he is 24 years old and has embarrassed batters ever since he entered the Phillies organization. This article would be much more effective if I finished my prospect lists already but I have not. I don't want to ruin the suspense but Bastardo will be ranked lower than Drabek but not lower than any other pitcher in the Phillies' farm system. You figure it out. I hope you can. Anthony Hewitt was a first round round draft pick in 2008 but has been very disappointing. Hewitt is a very raw high school prospect and was viewed as a long-term project. Hewitt was probably the most athletically talented player in the 2008 draft but has still been disappointing enough that he is not viewed as valuable as other first round talents.
I understand that many baseball followers will disagree with my trade opinions. I will be the first to acknowledge that trading proven talent for unproven minor league prospects is risky in both directions. Maybe this statement will help you better understand my views on baseball management. A single short-term rental of great baseball talent rarely rewards a team with a World Series. If the Phillies trade for Halladay and fail to win the World Series, then that trade has to be considered a bust as the Phillies have officially lost out on the futures of so many talents. If the Phillies feel they have the ability to extend Halladay for more than two years, then his acquisition is more than worth it. It would be great to have Halladay on the Phillies for multiple years, but it seems unrealistic that the Phillies would be able to sign another marquee player to a long-term deal. The Phillies will be concentrating on resigning Rollins, Victorino, and Werth after the 2010 season and it is even unrealistic to expect the Phillies to be able to resign all 3 of those players.
Adding Halladay to the Phillies should not happen. The Phillies have always been a conservative organization when it comes to prospects and payroll. The Phillies do not appear to be willing to let their elite prospects go, and the Phillies are also about to hit their reported budget limit which is $140 million. The Phillies are a legitimate World Series contender without Halladay. The ultimate goal is to get better every year but completing a trade such as this would damage the organization's future too much.
A full season of Lee, a full season of Happ as a starter, a non-crap season of Colbert Hamels, the always reliable Blanton, and the late season appearance of Drabek. The addition of Halladay would be a little too much for the National League to handle as the Phillies havn't lost more than one playoff game in any National League playoff series in the past 2 years. It's the holiday season, let's leave some hope for others.
My opinion remains unchanged on whether or not the Phillies should trade for Halladay. As I originally said, the base package of the rumored trade includes J.A. Happ and Domonic Brown, but if the trade is to be completed, more prospects will be included. Based on Philadelphia radio speculation, those additional prospects are Antonio Bastardo and Anthony Hewitt.
After a full season of Ruben Amaro Jr. as general manager, I have faith that Amaro will not be desperate or stupid enough to make this trade. If the Phillies refused to pull the trigger on the Halladay trade last year, then there is no way that the Phillies will complete this trade. Last year, the Phillies organization approached the Halladay trade intelligently and conservatively. Obviously Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in this league and would be a great addition to any team, but trading away too much future talent for any one player for a short-term period is irresponsible. During last year's trade rumors, the Phillies were reported to have 3 players that were "untouchable." Those 3 players were Kyle Drabek, Domonic Brown, and Antonio Bastardo. With the midseason addition of Lee, it would make no sense for the Phillies to all of a sudden release the "untouchable" label for 2 of those players.
I have already made it clear on my opinions of Happ and why he should be kept. Brown, even though he is an elite 5-tool prospect, could be made available for a trade because Michael Taylor plays the same position and is more major league ready at this point in his career. Bastardo, is an amazing talent and will be counted on this year as a lefthanded reliever. I honestly don't understand why Bastardo isn't valued as highly as Drabek, as he is 24 years old and has embarrassed batters ever since he entered the Phillies organization. This article would be much more effective if I finished my prospect lists already but I have not. I don't want to ruin the suspense but Bastardo will be ranked lower than Drabek but not lower than any other pitcher in the Phillies' farm system. You figure it out. I hope you can. Anthony Hewitt was a first round round draft pick in 2008 but has been very disappointing. Hewitt is a very raw high school prospect and was viewed as a long-term project. Hewitt was probably the most athletically talented player in the 2008 draft but has still been disappointing enough that he is not viewed as valuable as other first round talents.
I understand that many baseball followers will disagree with my trade opinions. I will be the first to acknowledge that trading proven talent for unproven minor league prospects is risky in both directions. Maybe this statement will help you better understand my views on baseball management. A single short-term rental of great baseball talent rarely rewards a team with a World Series. If the Phillies trade for Halladay and fail to win the World Series, then that trade has to be considered a bust as the Phillies have officially lost out on the futures of so many talents. If the Phillies feel they have the ability to extend Halladay for more than two years, then his acquisition is more than worth it. It would be great to have Halladay on the Phillies for multiple years, but it seems unrealistic that the Phillies would be able to sign another marquee player to a long-term deal. The Phillies will be concentrating on resigning Rollins, Victorino, and Werth after the 2010 season and it is even unrealistic to expect the Phillies to be able to resign all 3 of those players.
Adding Halladay to the Phillies should not happen. The Phillies have always been a conservative organization when it comes to prospects and payroll. The Phillies do not appear to be willing to let their elite prospects go, and the Phillies are also about to hit their reported budget limit which is $140 million. The Phillies are a legitimate World Series contender without Halladay. The ultimate goal is to get better every year but completing a trade such as this would damage the organization's future too much.
A full season of Lee, a full season of Happ as a starter, a non-crap season of Colbert Hamels, the always reliable Blanton, and the late season appearance of Drabek. The addition of Halladay would be a little too much for the National League to handle as the Phillies havn't lost more than one playoff game in any National League playoff series in the past 2 years. It's the holiday season, let's leave some hope for others.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Halladay. Worth it?
As we all know, the Phillies are being linked to trade rumors involving Roy Halladay, again. Halladay said that he will refuse a trade once the season begins, so if a trade does occur it should happen fairly soon. The Phillies have been widely acknowledged as the front runner to land Halladay. The other teams that have been reportedly involved in trade talks are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. The Jays are naturally reluctant to trade Halladay to division rivals such as the Yankees and Red Sox. The Angels are refusing to part ways with Eric Aybar who the Jays are demanding in return.
During the original trade talks between the Phillies and Jays, prior to the July 31st trade deadline, neither team was willing to yield in their demands. This inevitably led to the acquisition of Cliff Lee for the Phillies, and the termination of J.P. Ricciardi as the Jays GM. The trade stalled when the Jays were demanding both Happ and top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, along with minorleague outfielders Domonic Brown and Anthony Gose. The Phillies, wisely, rejected that offer as they felt the demands were too steep.
Now that it is officially the offseason, teams will have less time with Halladay under their control, compared to last year's trade deadline. Because of this, the value of Halladay has gone down significantly and the Jays demands are expected to be much less. As of Thursday, the Phillies were rumored to be offering a base package of James Andrew Happ, and one of either Domonic "I need a better nickname than Brownie" Brown, or Michael "The Mountain" Taylor. Assuming this is the offer that "allegedly" exists, I am sure that the Phillies will throw in a few more lesser valued prospects.
For those that mainly pay attention to the major league roster and aren't concerned about the minor league players, Brown and Taylor are the best non-pitcher prospects in the Phillies farm system. Taylor would be playing in Philadelphia right now if Werth didn't have a career 2009 campaign, and Brown is only a year away at the same position. The issue at hand is how much better Halladay is than Happ right now, and is that difference large enough to forego success past the 2010 season.
If Toronto's tourism industry hadn't exploded like it had in the past decade, then nobody would have seen the great Roy Halladay. Thank goodness for maple syrup and the appropriately low drinking age. Wait, that didn't happen. So why is everybody now making Roy Halladay out to be this incredible pitcher. Halladay went from a great pitcher to a hall of fame level pitcher just because he is on the trade block. I am not here to bash Halladay, he is a great pitcher, but it seems that people are making him out to be much more than he is.
2009 was one of Halladay's best seasons as he won 17 games while posting a 2.78 ERA in 239 innings, and he struck out 208 batters compared to only 35 walks. That is a great season for a pitcher, and if there is any current pitcher that can improve upon those numbers it is... well, Zach Greinke, but Halladay would be a good second guess. In all reality, the Philles will have Halladay for just one season if they acquire him before spring training. When trading away future talent for somebody that you are only going to have for one season, it is important that the player is dependable and durable as you are risking alot for a small period of time. In regards to durability, I couldnt name a pitcher that is more consistent and more durable than Halladay. Halladay has pitched well over 200 innings in 6 of the last 8 seasons and has had a sub-3.00 ERA in half of those seasons.
On the other side of this trade, stands J.A. Happ. You have got to feel bad for this guy, in a little over one year with the Phillies he has gone through trade rumors, bullpen demotion, and minor league demotion. Through all of this, Happ has succeeded on the mound while presenting a competitive but professional manor.
If Happ had not been in the Phillies organization in 2008, then there would have been no reason for 97% of Philadelphia's work force to be mysteriously missing on October 23rd of last year. Yes, the Phillies would not have won the World Series last year if Happ hadn't stepped in and produced like he did. Last year, Happ had 4 very crucial starts at the end of the year due to Kyle Kendrick's ability to make contact with every bat manufactured by the Louisville Bat Corporation. In those starts, Happ went 1-0 with a 2.32 ERA, the Phillies as a team won every game and didn't yield more than 2 runs in any game. The Phillies won the NL East by 2 games in 2008, without Happ it is very likely that the Phillies demolition of the 2008 playoffs would have never existed.
We all know the story of what happened with Happ throughout the season. That timeline has been told too many times. The organization's handling of Happ is exactly how to not handle a rookie pitcher. But through all of that he still posted a pitching line that is more impressive than people are acknowledging.
In 2009, as a rookie, Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 166 innings, he struck out 119 batters while only allowing 149 hits. Happ was among the national league ranks in most pitching categories. He ranked 1st in road ERA, 2nd in winning percentage, 8th in ERA, and 13th in WHIP. There are people that are going to compare Happ's rookie season to Kyle Kendrick's rookie season. If you are one of those people, please press the button on your computer that has a circle on it because this article is too advanced for you to comprehend. To compare those 2 pitchers and their rookie seasons would take too long, so for now I will just leave you with this. 17 seasons. That is how long it has been since a Phillies pitcher, not a rookie, but pitcher, posted a sub 2.95 ERA in over 150 innings.
Sometimes pitching statistics can be deceiving as not all batters faced are the same, along with defenses, and parks being pitched in. Because of this it is better to use more advanced statistics such as PRAR or DERA. This is also more relevant in this discussion as these pitchers come from separate leagues so many of the external factors are not the same. PRAR is defined as pitching runs above replacement. This basically shows how many runs a particular pitcher saves compared to a replacement level pitcher, 20 usually represents a good pitcher. DERA is a representation of ERA if a league average defense was placed behind that pitcher.
For better comparisons I am going to compare the averages of Halladay's career after the point in which he became a fulltime starter, to Happ's 2009 season. In the 11 seasons that Halladay has been a fulltime starter, he has averaged a 36.72 PRAR and a 3.61 DERA. In 2009, Happ posted a 41 PRAR and a 3.03 DERA. These statistics show that Halladay doesn't necessarily overpower Happ by comparison.
I am not going to claim that Happ is a better pitcher than Halladay as it is clear that Halladay has shown the ability to be an elite pitcher in this league for a long time. Happ had a great 2009 season and there is little reason to believe that he can't improve or duplicate that in the future. After analyzing the pitching statistics more thoroughly, it appears that the one year improvement between Halladay and Happ is not worth forfeiting multiple years of Happ and Brown/Taylor in the future.
During the original trade talks between the Phillies and Jays, prior to the July 31st trade deadline, neither team was willing to yield in their demands. This inevitably led to the acquisition of Cliff Lee for the Phillies, and the termination of J.P. Ricciardi as the Jays GM. The trade stalled when the Jays were demanding both Happ and top pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, along with minorleague outfielders Domonic Brown and Anthony Gose. The Phillies, wisely, rejected that offer as they felt the demands were too steep.
Now that it is officially the offseason, teams will have less time with Halladay under their control, compared to last year's trade deadline. Because of this, the value of Halladay has gone down significantly and the Jays demands are expected to be much less. As of Thursday, the Phillies were rumored to be offering a base package of James Andrew Happ, and one of either Domonic "I need a better nickname than Brownie" Brown, or Michael "The Mountain" Taylor. Assuming this is the offer that "allegedly" exists, I am sure that the Phillies will throw in a few more lesser valued prospects.
For those that mainly pay attention to the major league roster and aren't concerned about the minor league players, Brown and Taylor are the best non-pitcher prospects in the Phillies farm system. Taylor would be playing in Philadelphia right now if Werth didn't have a career 2009 campaign, and Brown is only a year away at the same position. The issue at hand is how much better Halladay is than Happ right now, and is that difference large enough to forego success past the 2010 season.
If Toronto's tourism industry hadn't exploded like it had in the past decade, then nobody would have seen the great Roy Halladay. Thank goodness for maple syrup and the appropriately low drinking age. Wait, that didn't happen. So why is everybody now making Roy Halladay out to be this incredible pitcher. Halladay went from a great pitcher to a hall of fame level pitcher just because he is on the trade block. I am not here to bash Halladay, he is a great pitcher, but it seems that people are making him out to be much more than he is.
2009 was one of Halladay's best seasons as he won 17 games while posting a 2.78 ERA in 239 innings, and he struck out 208 batters compared to only 35 walks. That is a great season for a pitcher, and if there is any current pitcher that can improve upon those numbers it is... well, Zach Greinke, but Halladay would be a good second guess. In all reality, the Philles will have Halladay for just one season if they acquire him before spring training. When trading away future talent for somebody that you are only going to have for one season, it is important that the player is dependable and durable as you are risking alot for a small period of time. In regards to durability, I couldnt name a pitcher that is more consistent and more durable than Halladay. Halladay has pitched well over 200 innings in 6 of the last 8 seasons and has had a sub-3.00 ERA in half of those seasons.
On the other side of this trade, stands J.A. Happ. You have got to feel bad for this guy, in a little over one year with the Phillies he has gone through trade rumors, bullpen demotion, and minor league demotion. Through all of this, Happ has succeeded on the mound while presenting a competitive but professional manor.
If Happ had not been in the Phillies organization in 2008, then there would have been no reason for 97% of Philadelphia's work force to be mysteriously missing on October 23rd of last year. Yes, the Phillies would not have won the World Series last year if Happ hadn't stepped in and produced like he did. Last year, Happ had 4 very crucial starts at the end of the year due to Kyle Kendrick's ability to make contact with every bat manufactured by the Louisville Bat Corporation. In those starts, Happ went 1-0 with a 2.32 ERA, the Phillies as a team won every game and didn't yield more than 2 runs in any game. The Phillies won the NL East by 2 games in 2008, without Happ it is very likely that the Phillies demolition of the 2008 playoffs would have never existed.
We all know the story of what happened with Happ throughout the season. That timeline has been told too many times. The organization's handling of Happ is exactly how to not handle a rookie pitcher. But through all of that he still posted a pitching line that is more impressive than people are acknowledging.
In 2009, as a rookie, Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 166 innings, he struck out 119 batters while only allowing 149 hits. Happ was among the national league ranks in most pitching categories. He ranked 1st in road ERA, 2nd in winning percentage, 8th in ERA, and 13th in WHIP. There are people that are going to compare Happ's rookie season to Kyle Kendrick's rookie season. If you are one of those people, please press the button on your computer that has a circle on it because this article is too advanced for you to comprehend. To compare those 2 pitchers and their rookie seasons would take too long, so for now I will just leave you with this. 17 seasons. That is how long it has been since a Phillies pitcher, not a rookie, but pitcher, posted a sub 2.95 ERA in over 150 innings.
Sometimes pitching statistics can be deceiving as not all batters faced are the same, along with defenses, and parks being pitched in. Because of this it is better to use more advanced statistics such as PRAR or DERA. This is also more relevant in this discussion as these pitchers come from separate leagues so many of the external factors are not the same. PRAR is defined as pitching runs above replacement. This basically shows how many runs a particular pitcher saves compared to a replacement level pitcher, 20 usually represents a good pitcher. DERA is a representation of ERA if a league average defense was placed behind that pitcher.
For better comparisons I am going to compare the averages of Halladay's career after the point in which he became a fulltime starter, to Happ's 2009 season. In the 11 seasons that Halladay has been a fulltime starter, he has averaged a 36.72 PRAR and a 3.61 DERA. In 2009, Happ posted a 41 PRAR and a 3.03 DERA. These statistics show that Halladay doesn't necessarily overpower Happ by comparison.
I am not going to claim that Happ is a better pitcher than Halladay as it is clear that Halladay has shown the ability to be an elite pitcher in this league for a long time. Happ had a great 2009 season and there is little reason to believe that he can't improve or duplicate that in the future. After analyzing the pitching statistics more thoroughly, it appears that the one year improvement between Halladay and Happ is not worth forfeiting multiple years of Happ and Brown/Taylor in the future.
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