Is Kyle Kendrick For Real?

Roy Halladay is a 2-time 20 game winner, a Cy Young Award winner, he comes from the best division in baseball, and he was involved in one of the biggest baseball trades in a long time. Yet he seems to be garnering significantly less attention than rotation hopeful Kyle Kendrick. Can this really be possible? Maybe it is because most baseball fans know what they are getting in Halladay and when they get dominating performances out of him it just seems like the norm. Maybe it is because Philadelphia fans have been talking about him for over 3 months and have read all the articles that they can handle. Of course that is impossible. Maybe it is because Halladay is intentionally hiding from the media. Whatever it is, Kyle Kendrick seems to be getting all the attention. This, coming from a pitcher who was not a high round draft pick, who does not have an overpowering fastball, who failed in his short time as a major leaguer, and who spent the majority of last year in the minors.

Kendrick's last 3 seasons have been eventful to say the least. Kendrick was the unheralded hero on the Phillies 2007 squad that ended a 13 year playoff drought. Kendrick was brought up in replacement of Freddy Garcia, who was injured, or just being thrown in a dumpster somewhere, as his era was 5.90 and climbing. Kendrick, at the time, was 22 years old and having a very nice season at AA Reading. The Phillies reached pretty far with Kendrick, as the high minors were very empty and the major league squad was incredibly thin in starting pitching. To say Kendrick performed admirably or exceeded expectations would be a severe understatement. He went 10-4 in 20 starts, and posted a 3.87 era. The Phillies needed every single win that year as they clinched on the very last day of the season. Without Kendrick, the Phillies would not have come close to allowing the Mets to display the biggest collapse in baseball history.

Kendrick went into 2008 with supreme confidence and may have been a little too cocky as it seemed that he was completely unprepared for spring training and the regular season. To make matters worse, the one thing that Kendrick had going for him, his confidence, took a serious hit when the entire Phillies franchise pulled a prank on him. Everyone from Brett Myers to Ruben Amaro Jr., was involved in the prank that told Kendrick that he was traded to Japan for the hot dog eating champion, Koboyashi Iwamura.

Once the regular season started, Kendrick was quickly finding out how tough it was to stick as a major league pitcher. He had such success in 2007 he didn’t find the need to make adjustments as it seemed the league wasn’t familiar enough with him. As with many pitchers, as the league becomes more familiar with a pitcher, the less success that pitcher usually has. When this occurs the pitcher better be able to make adjustments or his time will not last too long. This happened to Kendrick from his very first start in 08 and it only got worse. In 2008 Kendrick’s era sat in the 5.00 range for the majority of the season until he was pulled from the rotation at the end of September. Kendrick finished the season with a 5.49 era and an astounding 1.612 WHIP. The interesting thing was that in Kendrick’s 30 starts, the Phillies had a record of 18-12. That was still not enough to keep Kendrick in the rotation as he just kept on putting up dismal outings when it mattered most. After a full year and a half in the Phillies starting rotation he was left completely off the playoff roster and was forced to watch the World Series run from his couch.

I want to say that this was the low point in Kendrick’s career, but that is not the case. In the upcoming spring, the Phillies setup an open competition for the 5th starter spot with Kendrick, young JA Happ, veteran Chan Ho Park, and top prospect Carlos Carrasco. The Phillies clearly wanted Kendrick to win the job but he pitched so horribly in spring training again that they had no choice but to send him to the minors. The Phillies hoped that this would be a good situation for Kendrick as he wouldn’t have to focus on results but could focus more on developing his other off speed pitches. Kendrick clearly disagreed with the organization and instead viewed it solely as a demotion.

The approach in which Kendrick took was absolutely horrible and it really deterred him from succeeding early on in 2009. Kendrick had a FIP of 3.93 and 4.70 to go along with a WHIP of 1.35 and 1.50 in the first 2 months of the season. Once Kendrick decided to place an emphasis on learning and developing his new pitches, his season really turned around and the organization really took notice. Kendrick posted a FIP of 2.76 and a WHIP of 0.85 in July which is really when he started getting comfortable with his new array of pitches. By season’s end, Kendrick ranked 5th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, and 10th in innings pitched within the International League. By the time the Phillies were ready for September call ups, Kendrick was first on the list and he proved that he was ready to be back in the majors. When Kendrick was given his opportunity he did not disappoint as he posted a 3.42 ERA in 26 innings. Even though 26 innings is hardly enough time to truly assess a pitcher, it was clear that Kendrick had vastly improved in his one season at Lehigh Valley.

The issue with Kendrick was that he had a good sinker that had very good movement but that was basically it. He did throw a slider as well but it was rudimentary which made the sinker way too predictable for a major league pitcher. Once a pitcher becomes predictable in this league his days become numbered very quickly. This is the main reason that Kendrick was forced down to the minors. In his time in the minors, Kendrick worked on developing a changeup and improving his slider. Based on the innings he pitched in September last year, along with his spring training appearances this year, it is safe to say that Kendrick succeeded at reaching the goal that the organization set for him 2009.

The thing that appears most interesting about Kendrick is that he is throwing a cutter with great movement and control out of nowhere. We all knew that Kendrick had a good sinker and he was confident in his changeup, but before spring training there was absolutely no news about Kendrick adding a cutter to his repertoire. Obviously I’d be an idiot if I didn’t mention Roy Halladay. It can’t be a coincidence that Kendrick pulls a cutter out of nowhere the same time that Roy Halladay, who throws probably the second best cutter in baseball, arrives.

It’s no secret that Kendrick has latched on to Halladay and is trying to mimic his pitches, his movement, his location, even his ginger beard. It really is quite funny to see on camera because you can’t find a shot of Roy without Kyle standing right next to him. Kendrick has reportedly been showing up to practice even before Halladay and Manuel, which usually sits at about 5 a.m.  If Kendrick ever had the ability to improve as a pitcher, or athlete, or baseball player, he has clearly taken every step necessary to do it. Few have worked harder in spring training and in the offseason and it really seems to be paying off for him.

Even though they seem like meaningless Grapefruit League outings, Kendrick has been absolutely amazing and has basically been perfect in his 9 innings. Kendrick has not allowed a run this spring, but even more impressive is that he’s issued 0 walks and allowed only 4 hits. The only pitching aspect that Kendrick could improve upon this spring is his strikeout rate. Few pitchers are able to succeed in the majors while striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings, so Kendrick does need to miss a few more bats. With the way Kendrick's pitches are moving this spring, I really can't see that being an issue.  In the first spring training game against the Yankees I really couldn't believe my eyes watching Kendrick pitch.  He looked as good as Halladay if not better in those 2 short innings.  The cutter, sinker, changeup, all have looked, dare I say "filthy?"  I am really trying to not overrate the 9 innings he's pitched in spring training but it's hard not to like what he could potentially add to our rotation.  All in all, Kendrick has shown great pitch selection, variation, movement, location, and the ability to become a leach to the best pitcher in baseball. Now it is up to the Phillies organization to show that they are able to learn from their mistakes and not screw up like they did last year (Happ/Park).

Is Happ the Next Kendrick?

Can a player's public perception be affected solely by another player's performance? In sports, athletes like to believe that they have control over how they perform and how the public views them. Philadelphian's beg to differ.

J.A. Happ put together an impressive performance in 2008, as he took over the starting duties of the failing Kyle Kendrick. Without Happ and his 2.32 era over those 4 starts, the Phillies might have never had the opportunity to breeze through the 2008 playoffs. Happ then continued to fight for a full time rotational spot in 2009, but was unfortunately inserted into the bullpen where he posted a 2.59 era. The Phillies finally realized their mistake on May 23rd, and put Happ in the rotation where he finished the season with a 2.92 era. It has been 17 seasons since a Phillies starting pitcher has posted an era that low. One would think that the public perception of a pitcher with those numbers early in his career would be unanimously high. Wrong?

Due to the recent performance of Kyle Kendrick, all successful rookie pitchers for the Phillies will be continually questioned until the day that they officially retire. If Kendrick was not part of the Phillies organization, Philadelphia would probably be praising Happ as the next Cy Young. That is not the case, instead, fans will continue to wait until he falters. They will continue to say "the league will adjust to him," or, "there's no book on him yet." Happ has pitched over 200 innings in his major league career. The MLB isn't that slow to adjust to players. Happ has appeared in 44 career games. There is more than enough game tape developed on Happ for batters to figure out what exactly he's doing out there.

The comparisons between the two pitchers are just ridiculous as they almost have nothing in common. When attempting to initially compare Happ and Kendrick, they pitch from completely different sides of the plate, and they share only one pitch. When comparing their rookie seasons, Happ had a better era, more innings, less hits per inning, more strikeouts per inning, less walks per inning, do I need to go on. How about PRAR, the measure of total value a pitcher provides, is the best utility when comparing pitchers. Happ's 2009 PRAR (41)was almost double that of Kendrick's 2007 PRAR (21).

It is true about how rookies can appear as if they are overachieving based on the league's lack of familiarity to the player. But that has to be viewed as the exception to the rule, not the rule itself. With more and more information available to players and coaches such as advanced statistics, scouting reports, and game film, it doesn't take long for the league to catch up to young players. It took the league less than 150 innings to catch up to Kendrick. If the league were to catch up to Happ, it would have happened already.

Kendrick failed in his second season because he didn't have enough reliable pitches to throw. Because of this, batters were able to sit on his sinker which allowed them to consistently hit Kendrick hard. Happ does not have this issue at all. Happ throws 4 quality pitches; a 4-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Happ also has the ability to throw all of these pitches for strikes. Like most pitchers he works off of his fastball, but what makes Happ so effective is that he throws two separate fastballs that have two separate motions. This does not allow hitters to square up on the ball, even if they are able to recognize fastball. Happ has shown the ability to work every area of the strikezone which makes him even harder to anticipate by batters. The way Happ pitches and approaches the game makes him very easy to compare to another Phillies ace. I mean Mariners ace. Yup, that's a Cliff Lee comparison. They both are lefthanded, throw the same exact pitches, and utilize all areas of the strikezone. If Happ had been in the starting rotation the entire season, Happ and Lee would have possessed the same 2009 VORP. The only reason that Lee holds a higher VORP over Happ is the difference in innings pitched. When Lee and Happ were at the same amount of innings, 166, they shared the same exact 2009 VORP of 46.7.

Another perception of Happ is that he possesses a low ceiling and is not going to improve from where he currently is. First of all, does Happ really need to improve any more from what he currently is? A 2.93 era is exactly Pedro Martinez's career era. I'd be o.k. with a Pedro Martinez era in the Phillies rotation. Obviously I am not comparing the two, just displaying how affective he's been.

Kyle Drabek was widely acknowledged as the best pitching prospect and had the highest ceiling in the Phillies' farm system. I am not disagreeing that he was the best pitching prospect in the Phillies' farm system. Fans and sportswriters all around the Philadelphia area will claim that Drabek is the better of the two down the road. I beg to differ, again. Drabek has an overpowering fastball and an amazing curveball, but that is about it as his changeup is a mediocre pitch at best. I do believe that Drabek will be a very good major league pitcher, but if you compare his minor league numbers to Happ's, they don't appear as impressive as many would think. Up to this point in Drabek's career, he has posted a 3.70 era, 8.1 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 7.6 SO/9. Throughout Happ's minorleague career, he posted a 3.34 era, 7.5 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 9.3 SO/9. As you can see, Happ has outperformed Drabek in almost every possible pitching statistic. Drabek could have a better career than Happ in the end, but based on their minorleague careers, it shouldn't be concluded that Drabek was the better long-term option.

Obviously not all Philadelphia fans have these opinions of Happ, but the beliefs do exist and I felt the need to address it, and shut them down.

Who's Pitching on that 5th Day

An issue on the Phillies' roster that nobody seems to be addressing is the fifth spot in the starting rotation. As the 2009 season commenced, Pedro Martinez held the fifth spot but is unlikely to return. The Phillies have many internal options to fill this position which is very fortunate, and to be quite honest, necessary. The Phillies had 5 different pitchers that started in the 5th spot during the 2009 season.

The current options that exist for the Phillies at the 5th spot are Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, Drew Carpenter, and Kyle Drabek. It seems as if the Phillies will not be pursuing free agents to fill the final starting pitching role as they are concentrating on other areas of the team.

Jamie Moyer is about to be a card carrying member of the AARP but still finds himself competing in Major League Baseball. He has an astounding 258 career wins and will always be a fan favorite in Philadelphia as he grew up only 30 miles north of a row of Port-o-Potties, or where Veterans Stadium once stood. Moyer had a very successful 2008 season as he posted 16 wins and a 3.71 ERA, but declined significantly in 2009 as he had a 4.94 ERA and was demoted to the bullpen in August. Good pitchers are bound to have bad years, but with Moyer, any sort of failure will be associated with his age and whether or not he has lost his ability to pitch. A congratulations goes out to Jamie as he just turned 47 on Wednesday, not a welcome event for many, but Jamie has been considered an old player in this league for over 10 years so what's another year. Another concern with Moyer is that he recently underwent groin surgery, he still will be considered to have a very good chance to nail down the 5th spot in the roation.

Ever since Kyle Kendrick won 10 games as a rookie in 2007, the Phillies organization has been very high on him. Kendrick tailed off in 2008 though as it seemed the league was figuring him out and he eventually was pulled from the rotation. in 2009 the Phillies had an open competition for the 5th starter's spot and gave every opportunity to Kendrick to come away with it. Kendrick unfortunately floundered and was sent to Lehigh Valley. Kendrick pitched the majority of the season in Lehigh Valley in an effort to develop a changeup. Kendrick responded to this assignment exceptionally well as he finished the season ranked 5th in ERA, 10th in innings, and most importantly, 2nd in WHIP. The WHIP is most important for Kendrick as the reason he was demoted was because he allowed too many baserunners which led to his unsuccessful 2008 season. Kendrick did have the opportunity to pitch for Philadelphia toward the end of the 2009 season and performed very successfully. Kendrick pitched a total of 26 innings with a 3.4 ERA and it would have been a 2.66 ERA if it wasn't for an irrelevant, last day of the season, appearence. The Phillies would love to see Kendrick succeed as the 5th pitcher in their rotation and will give him the opportunity to do so.

Drew Carpenter is an interesting option as not many people have given him attention and he is well deserving of it. Carpenter made a spot start early in 2009 and earned a victory in a rain shortened game but was not particularly impressive as he yielded 5 runs in 4.1 innings. I don't believe you can take much out of debuts as it is a poor assessment of a pitcher and his abilities. Carpenter is only 24 years old and has had a very successful minorleague career. 2009 in particular, was a very good season for Carpenter, while at Lehigh Valley, he finished 6th in ERA, 4th in wins, 3rd in innings, and 6th in SOs. Carpenter does have the ability to succeed now in the majors. He projects to be a pitcher like Joe Blanton, as he has a large frame, throws in the low 90s, is very consistent while unspectacular, and can throw multiple pitches for strikes. Carpenter does seem to be the odd man out in this competition but don't count him out if he has an impressive spring training.

Kyle Drabek will find himself in a similar situation as Carlos Carrasco did in 2008. The Phillies will give Drabek an opportunity to compete for the final rotation spot out of spring training but Drabek will have to truly impress. The Phillies really love the abilities of Drabek but would like to give him a little more time in the minors. Drabek is currently rated as the #1 pitching prospect in the Phillies farm system. He is the pure definition of a power pitcher as he can throw in upwards of 98 MPH with a power curveball and an improving changeup. Even though Drabek's fastball usually sits from 94-96, his curveball is widely acknowledged as his best pitch. As Drabek is still only 21 years old, he can benefit from more time in the minors but is still expected to debut sometime in the second half of the 2010 season.

As the Phillies have multiple internal options, it isn't imperitive that they make the correct decision immediately, compared to other needs that will be filled through free agency. All of these players will remain in the Phillies organization so they may all get an opportunity to succeed. Jamie Moyer has had an amazing career and remains a great asset to the Phillies, but if the Phillies named Jamie Moyer the 5th starter, that would have to be viewed as taking a step backwards after demoting him last year before showing any significant improvement. Drabek is by far the most talented within this group but is not quite ready to start for Philadelphia in April. After a few more months in the minors, Drabek will be better suited to succeed as a starter for the Phillies. The best options that the Phillies hold at the beginning of the 2010 season are Kendrick and Carpenter. The Phillies should award the 5th starter position to the candidate who succeeds more in spring training between these two. If the competition remains close at all there is no doubt that the Phillies will go with Kyle Kendrick.

I believe that Kendrick will start the season as the Phillies 5th starter and Drabek will take over some time in the second half of the season.