Friday, May 7, 2010
Moving Day
I have decided to move this site to phranchise.blogspot.com. I felt the change needed to be made as Phillie Nation is just too close to the popular Phillies Nation and in all honesty I should have never named it this. Outside of the name change nothing else will be different about the new site. I am excited about the change to "The Phranchise" as it abides the Philadelphia law of changing all Fs to PHs and in a way it honors the best basketball player ever, Steve "The Franchise" Francis. Please enjoy.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Aumont Changing Things Up
Phillippe Aumont is adjusting nicely to minor league camp as he had an impressive outing yesterday against the double-A affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays. Aumont pitched 3 perfect innings while striking out 4 and allowed only 1 flyball out. Aumont has seemed to recover nicely from his outing in which he went 2/3 of an inning against FSU and allowed 5 runs.
It has been reported that the Phillies are tinkering with his delivery in hopes to improve his control. The Phillies scouted Aumont when he was in high school and believe that his delivery has significantly changed since then. The Phillies have sat down with Aumont in recent weeks to show him the difference and see if he can get back to what he was doing in high school, which was throwing at more of a 3/4 angle instead of an over the top motion. This occurred because the Mariners organization viewed him as a reliever and wanted to utilize his 4-seam fastball over his sinker. An over the top motion will increase velocity, but will take away from a pitcher's ability to add movement to a pitch, it also increases the chance of injury as it adds pressure on the elbow.
Aumont has an incredible amount of potential as he has 3 pitches (4-seamer, sinker, curveball) that can potentially be viewed as plus pitches. Aumont also throws a changeup but it is a work in progress at this point. The issue with Aumont, similar to almost all young pitchers, is whether or not he can control those pitches. If Aumont can find comfort in his new delivery and control his pitches, the Phillies may have gotten more for Cliff Lee than originally thought. 2010 will be a big year for Aumont's development so it's good news that he's in Reading where they have been known to succeed in developing pitchers.
It has been reported that the Phillies are tinkering with his delivery in hopes to improve his control. The Phillies scouted Aumont when he was in high school and believe that his delivery has significantly changed since then. The Phillies have sat down with Aumont in recent weeks to show him the difference and see if he can get back to what he was doing in high school, which was throwing at more of a 3/4 angle instead of an over the top motion. This occurred because the Mariners organization viewed him as a reliever and wanted to utilize his 4-seam fastball over his sinker. An over the top motion will increase velocity, but will take away from a pitcher's ability to add movement to a pitch, it also increases the chance of injury as it adds pressure on the elbow.
Aumont has an incredible amount of potential as he has 3 pitches (4-seamer, sinker, curveball) that can potentially be viewed as plus pitches. Aumont also throws a changeup but it is a work in progress at this point. The issue with Aumont, similar to almost all young pitchers, is whether or not he can control those pitches. If Aumont can find comfort in his new delivery and control his pitches, the Phillies may have gotten more for Cliff Lee than originally thought. 2010 will be a big year for Aumont's development so it's good news that he's in Reading where they have been known to succeed in developing pitchers.
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Is Kyle Kendrick For Real?
Roy Halladay is a 2-time 20 game winner, a Cy Young Award winner, he comes from the best division in baseball, and he was involved in one of the biggest baseball trades in a long time. Yet he seems to be garnering significantly less attention than rotation hopeful Kyle Kendrick. Can this really be possible? Maybe it is because most baseball fans know what they are getting in Halladay and when they get dominating performances out of him it just seems like the norm. Maybe it is because Philadelphia fans have been talking about him for over 3 months and have read all the articles that they can handle. Of course that is impossible. Maybe it is because Halladay is intentionally hiding from the media. Whatever it is, Kyle Kendrick seems to be getting all the attention. This, coming from a pitcher who was not a high round draft pick, who does not have an overpowering fastball, who failed in his short time as a major leaguer, and who spent the majority of last year in the minors.
Kendrick's last 3 seasons have been eventful to say the least. Kendrick was the unheralded hero on the Phillies 2007 squad that ended a 13 year playoff drought. Kendrick was brought up in replacement of Freddy Garcia, who was injured, or just being thrown in a dumpster somewhere, as his era was 5.90 and climbing. Kendrick, at the time, was 22 years old and having a very nice season at AA Reading. The Phillies reached pretty far with Kendrick, as the high minors were very empty and the major league squad was incredibly thin in starting pitching. To say Kendrick performed admirably or exceeded expectations would be a severe understatement. He went 10-4 in 20 starts, and posted a 3.87 era. The Phillies needed every single win that year as they clinched on the very last day of the season. Without Kendrick, the Phillies would not have come close to allowing the Mets to display the biggest collapse in baseball history.Kendrick went into 2008 with supreme confidence and may have been a little too cocky as it seemed that he was completely unprepared for spring training and the regular season. To make matters worse, the one thing that Kendrick had going for him, his confidence, took a serious hit when the entire Phillies franchise pulled a prank on him. Everyone from Brett Myers to Ruben Amaro Jr., was involved in the prank that told Kendrick that he was traded to Japan for the hot dog eating champion, Koboyashi Iwamura.
Once the regular season started, Kendrick was quickly finding out how tough it was to stick as a major league pitcher. He had such success in 2007 he didn’t find the need to make adjustments as it seemed the league wasn’t familiar enough with him. As with many pitchers, as the league becomes more familiar with a pitcher, the less success that pitcher usually has. When this occurs the pitcher better be able to make adjustments or his time will not last too long. This happened to Kendrick from his very first start in 08 and it only got worse. In 2008 Kendrick’s era sat in the 5.00 range for the majority of the season until he was pulled from the rotation at the end of September. Kendrick finished the season with a 5.49 era and an astounding 1.612 WHIP. The interesting thing was that in Kendrick’s 30 starts, the Phillies had a record of 18-12. That was still not enough to keep Kendrick in the rotation as he just kept on putting up dismal outings when it mattered most. After a full year and a half in the Phillies starting rotation he was left completely off the playoff roster and was forced to watch the World Series run from his couch.
I want to say that this was the low point in Kendrick’s career, but that is not the case. In the upcoming spring, the Phillies setup an open competition for the 5th starter spot with Kendrick, young JA Happ, veteran Chan Ho Park, and top prospect Carlos Carrasco. The Phillies clearly wanted Kendrick to win the job but he pitched so horribly in spring training again that they had no choice but to send him to the minors. The Phillies hoped that this would be a good situation for Kendrick as he wouldn’t have to focus on results but could focus more on developing his other off speed pitches. Kendrick clearly disagreed with the organization and instead viewed it solely as a demotion.
The approach in which Kendrick took was absolutely horrible and it really deterred him from succeeding early on in 2009. Kendrick had a FIP of 3.93 and 4.70 to go along with a WHIP of 1.35 and 1.50 in the first 2 months of the season. Once Kendrick decided to place an emphasis on learning and developing his new pitches, his season really turned around and the organization really took notice. Kendrick posted a FIP of 2.76 and a WHIP of 0.85 in July which is really when he started getting comfortable with his new array of pitches. By season’s end, Kendrick ranked 5th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, and 10th in innings pitched within the International League. By the time the Phillies were ready for September call ups, Kendrick was first on the list and he proved that he was ready to be back in the majors. When Kendrick was given his opportunity he did not disappoint as he posted a 3.42 ERA in 26 innings. Even though 26 innings is hardly enough time to truly assess a pitcher, it was clear that Kendrick had vastly improved in his one season at Lehigh Valley.
The issue with Kendrick was that he had a good sinker that had very good movement but that was basically it. He did throw a slider as well but it was rudimentary which made the sinker way too predictable for a major league pitcher. Once a pitcher becomes predictable in this league his days become numbered very quickly. This is the main reason that Kendrick was forced down to the minors. In his time in the minors, Kendrick worked on developing a changeup and improving his slider. Based on the innings he pitched in September last year, along with his spring training appearances this year, it is safe to say that Kendrick succeeded at reaching the goal that the organization set for him 2009.
The thing that appears most interesting about Kendrick is that he is throwing a cutter with great movement and control out of nowhere. We all knew that Kendrick had a good sinker and he was confident in his changeup, but before spring training there was absolutely no news about Kendrick adding a cutter to his repertoire. Obviously I’d be an idiot if I didn’t mention Roy Halladay. It can’t be a coincidence that Kendrick pulls a cutter out of nowhere the same time that Roy Halladay, who throws probably the second best cutter in baseball, arrives.
It’s no secret that Kendrick has latched on to Halladay and is trying to mimic his pitches, his movement, his location, even his ginger beard. It really is quite funny to see on camera because you can’t find a shot of Roy without Kyle standing right next to him. Kendrick has reportedly been showing up to practice even before Halladay and Manuel, which usually sits at about 5 a.m. If Kendrick ever had the ability to improve as a pitcher, or athlete, or baseball player, he has clearly taken every step necessary to do it. Few have worked harder in spring training and in the offseason and it really seems to be paying off for him.
Even though they seem like meaningless Grapefruit League outings, Kendrick has been absolutely amazing and has basically been perfect in his 9 innings. Kendrick has not allowed a run this spring, but even more impressive is that he’s issued 0 walks and allowed only 4 hits. The only pitching aspect that Kendrick could improve upon this spring is his strikeout rate. Few pitchers are able to succeed in the majors while striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings, so Kendrick does need to miss a few more bats. With the way Kendrick's pitches are moving this spring, I really can't see that being an issue. In the first spring training game against the Yankees I really couldn't believe my eyes watching Kendrick pitch. He looked as good as Halladay if not better in those 2 short innings. The cutter, sinker, changeup, all have looked, dare I say "filthy?" I am really trying to not overrate the 9 innings he's pitched in spring training but it's hard not to like what he could potentially add to our rotation. All in all, Kendrick has shown great pitch selection, variation, movement, location, and the ability to become a leach to the best pitcher in baseball. Now it is up to the Phillies organization to show that they are able to learn from their mistakes and not screw up like they did last year (Happ/Park).
Thursday, March 11, 2010
2010 League Predictions
The 2009 offseason was very uneventful in that not many teams got much better or worse. All of the top the teams in both leagues should have similar success in 2010. The NL teams did almost nothing to change the outlay of their roster and the AL was almost as boring with the exception of Seattle and Boston. Without the Lee/Halladay trades, this offseason would have been completely nonexistent due to the horrible collection of free agents. The most impressive offseason easily goes to the Mariners as they acquired Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins while retaining Eric Bedard at a very reasonable price. They are really the only non-playoff team that really put themselves in an opportunity to seriously contend in 2010.
Since there were not many big contracts given out there really were no true losers in the offseason. With that being said, the Mets still appear to be lost. The Mets did acquire Jason Bay who is a quality middle of the order hitter as he provides some much needed power to their lineup, but everyone and their mother agrees that they overpaid. Bay is also known for being a notoriously bad defensive outfielder and putting him in the cavernous outfield of Citi Field will make him look like Lt. Dan from Forrest Gump.
So after it is all said and done, here are my 2010 predictions. Nothing too surprising outside of one or two teams in each league. As I feel it is a bit more relevant I have gone into more depth on the NL East teams. I have also put the team MVPs and their surprise player who are either impact rookies or just players who have significantly larger impact than expected.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are easily the best team in the National League and anybody that disagrees needs to stop being a pretend baseball fan and go back to watching that communist sport with the sticks and black discs. Amongst National League teams, the Phillies have the best offense, defense, baserunning, and arguably the best pitcher. The Phillies could also sport the best rotation if Hollywood returns to his 2008 form and Happ continues his early success. Of course it would have been amazing if Lee was still on the team but I understand why Amaro did what he did. The additions of Polanco and Contreras are really going to improve the Phillies. 2010 should be a smooth ride barring any serious injuries. The Phillies have no real competition in their division or in the NL so there isn’t much more to analyze so I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the domination early and often.
MVP: Roy Halladay
Surprise: Antonio Bastardo
2. Atlanta Braves
The Braves are the best team in the NL not from Philadelphia and they will be the wildcard this year. 90 wins for this team is attainable. The Braves have almost nobody worth fearing in their offense or pitching staff but at the same time no real weakness exists on this team. A healthy Wagner, Chipper, and Hudson can make this team a legitimate contender. The Braves possess 2 of the best young players in baseball with Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward. If both of those players can consistently display their talents in 2010 the Braves could go further than expected. It’s tough to not be high on a team with as much pitching as them.
MVP: Chipper Jones
Surprise: Jason Heyward
3. Florida Marlins
The Florida Marlins are always the most difficult team in the majors to predict. They are almost never as good or bad as people project them to be. Hanley Ramirez is an absolute monster and is one of the top 5 players in the league and Josh Johnson is a legitimate Cy Young candidate. Other than that there are a lot of questions but along with those questions, a lot of potential. The Marlins will be one of streakiest teams this year and will strike fear into their opponents for about 2 months until they drop off at the end of the season.
MVP: Hanley Ramirez
Surprise: Cameron Maybin
4. New York Mets
Oh the New York Metropolitans, what a funny team to have in your division. It really makes great entertainment to see the nonstop hype around this team followed by the nonstop disaster that is their franchise. Their GM and manager clearly do not understand what is going on as they had an embarrassing 2009 season and did almost nothing to improve. Jason Bay was a quality acquisition when you avoid looking at the price that came along with him. I mean seriously, who else was actually negotiating with him that he got almost $70 million. Anyways, as I said, Bay is a decent middle of the order hitter who will provide some power to their lineup. At the same time, the Mets did absolutely nothing to improve their biggest weaknesses which were middle relief and starting pitching. They have an amazing closer and one of the best pitchers in baseball in Johan Santana. With all things taken into account, assuming they stay healthy which is a huge assumption, the Mets should provide a high outage of runs but allow many more. The Mets should finish anywhere between 3rd and 4th within this division and that has more to do with the performance of the Marlins than the Mets.
MVP: Johan Santana
Surprise: Daniel Murphy
5. Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals are kind of like that nerdy kid in the neighborhood who is horrible at sports but your still nice and let him play. The Nats are so irrelevant I fought myself on whether or not they were actually worth writing a paragraph on them. So instead I write a paragraph on how pointless of a franchise they are. That is nothing against the Nationals as they played in Montreal and San Juan for a long time. Talk about bad luck. Anyways, they are building a solid foundation in Zimmerman and Strasburg, and Bryce Harper will be joining pretty soon. All in all, the Nats again will be bottom dwellers but Strasburg will be enough for them to actually garner some attention, at least regionally.
MVP: Ryan Zimmerman
Surprise: Nyjer Morgan
NL Central
1. Houston Astros
MVP: Hunter Pence
Surprise: Brett Myers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
MVP: Albert Pujols
Surprise: Colby Rasmus
3. Milwaukee Brewers
MVP: Ryan Braun
Surprise: Rickie Weeks
4. Chicago Cubs
MVP: Derek Lee
Surprise: Carlos Marmol
5. Cincinnati Reds
MVP: Joey Votto
Surprise: Jay Bruce
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
MVP: Garrett Jones
Surprise: Andrew McCutchen
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
MVP: Matt Kemp
Surprise: James Loney
2. Colorado Rockies
MVP: Todd Helton
Surprise: Carlos Gonzalez
3. San Francisco Giants
MVP: Tim Lincecum
Surprise: Madison Bumgarner
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
MVP: Justin Upton
Surprise: Edwin Jackson
5. San Diego Padres
MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Surprise: Kyle Banks
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
MVP: Jason Bartlett
Surprise: Sean Rodriguez
2. New York Yankees
MVP: Mark Texeira
Surprise: Phil Hughes
3. Boston Red Sox
MVP: Victor Martinez
Surprise: Clay Buchholz
4. Baltimore Orioles
MVP: Nick Markakis
Surprise: Brian Matusz
5. Toronto Blue Jays
MVP: Vernon Wells
Surprise: Travis Snyder
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
MVP: Joe Mauer
Surprise: Denard Span
2. Chicago White Sox
MVP: Jake Peavy
Surprise: Gavin Floyd
3. Detroit Tigers
MVP: Miguel Cabrera
Surprise: Max Sherzer
4. Kansas City Royals
MVP: Billy Butler
Surprise: Kila Ka'ai
5. Cleveland Indians
MVP: Shin Soo-Choo
Surprise: Lou Marson (shocker)
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
MVP: Bobby Abreu
Surprise: Howie Kendrick
2. Seattle Mariners
MVP: Cliff Lee
Surprise: Milton Bradley
3. Texas Rangers
MVP: Ian Kinsler
Surprise: Chris Davis
4. Oakland Athletics
MVP: Andrew Bailey
Surprise: Michael Taylor (shocker)
NLDS
Phillies over the Houston Ed Wades
Braves over Dodgers
ALDS
Yankees over Angels
Rays over Twins
NLCS
Phillies over Braves
ALCS
Rays over Yankees
WS
Yup 08 Repeat. Phils over Rays but in a closer series.
Since there were not many big contracts given out there really were no true losers in the offseason. With that being said, the Mets still appear to be lost. The Mets did acquire Jason Bay who is a quality middle of the order hitter as he provides some much needed power to their lineup, but everyone and their mother agrees that they overpaid. Bay is also known for being a notoriously bad defensive outfielder and putting him in the cavernous outfield of Citi Field will make him look like Lt. Dan from Forrest Gump.
So after it is all said and done, here are my 2010 predictions. Nothing too surprising outside of one or two teams in each league. As I feel it is a bit more relevant I have gone into more depth on the NL East teams. I have also put the team MVPs and their surprise player who are either impact rookies or just players who have significantly larger impact than expected.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are easily the best team in the National League and anybody that disagrees needs to stop being a pretend baseball fan and go back to watching that communist sport with the sticks and black discs. Amongst National League teams, the Phillies have the best offense, defense, baserunning, and arguably the best pitcher. The Phillies could also sport the best rotation if Hollywood returns to his 2008 form and Happ continues his early success. Of course it would have been amazing if Lee was still on the team but I understand why Amaro did what he did. The additions of Polanco and Contreras are really going to improve the Phillies. 2010 should be a smooth ride barring any serious injuries. The Phillies have no real competition in their division or in the NL so there isn’t much more to analyze so I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the domination early and often.
MVP: Roy Halladay
Surprise: Antonio Bastardo
2. Atlanta Braves
The Braves are the best team in the NL not from Philadelphia and they will be the wildcard this year. 90 wins for this team is attainable. The Braves have almost nobody worth fearing in their offense or pitching staff but at the same time no real weakness exists on this team. A healthy Wagner, Chipper, and Hudson can make this team a legitimate contender. The Braves possess 2 of the best young players in baseball with Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward. If both of those players can consistently display their talents in 2010 the Braves could go further than expected. It’s tough to not be high on a team with as much pitching as them.
MVP: Chipper Jones
Surprise: Jason Heyward
3. Florida Marlins
The Florida Marlins are always the most difficult team in the majors to predict. They are almost never as good or bad as people project them to be. Hanley Ramirez is an absolute monster and is one of the top 5 players in the league and Josh Johnson is a legitimate Cy Young candidate. Other than that there are a lot of questions but along with those questions, a lot of potential. The Marlins will be one of streakiest teams this year and will strike fear into their opponents for about 2 months until they drop off at the end of the season.
MVP: Hanley Ramirez
Surprise: Cameron Maybin
4. New York Mets
Oh the New York Metropolitans, what a funny team to have in your division. It really makes great entertainment to see the nonstop hype around this team followed by the nonstop disaster that is their franchise. Their GM and manager clearly do not understand what is going on as they had an embarrassing 2009 season and did almost nothing to improve. Jason Bay was a quality acquisition when you avoid looking at the price that came along with him. I mean seriously, who else was actually negotiating with him that he got almost $70 million. Anyways, as I said, Bay is a decent middle of the order hitter who will provide some power to their lineup. At the same time, the Mets did absolutely nothing to improve their biggest weaknesses which were middle relief and starting pitching. They have an amazing closer and one of the best pitchers in baseball in Johan Santana. With all things taken into account, assuming they stay healthy which is a huge assumption, the Mets should provide a high outage of runs but allow many more. The Mets should finish anywhere between 3rd and 4th within this division and that has more to do with the performance of the Marlins than the Mets.
MVP: Johan Santana
Surprise: Daniel Murphy
5. Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals are kind of like that nerdy kid in the neighborhood who is horrible at sports but your still nice and let him play. The Nats are so irrelevant I fought myself on whether or not they were actually worth writing a paragraph on them. So instead I write a paragraph on how pointless of a franchise they are. That is nothing against the Nationals as they played in Montreal and San Juan for a long time. Talk about bad luck. Anyways, they are building a solid foundation in Zimmerman and Strasburg, and Bryce Harper will be joining pretty soon. All in all, the Nats again will be bottom dwellers but Strasburg will be enough for them to actually garner some attention, at least regionally.
MVP: Ryan Zimmerman
Surprise: Nyjer Morgan
NL Central
1. Houston Astros
MVP: Hunter Pence
Surprise: Brett Myers
2. St. Louis Cardinals
MVP: Albert Pujols
Surprise: Colby Rasmus
3. Milwaukee Brewers
MVP: Ryan Braun
Surprise: Rickie Weeks
4. Chicago Cubs
MVP: Derek Lee
Surprise: Carlos Marmol
5. Cincinnati Reds
MVP: Joey Votto
Surprise: Jay Bruce
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
MVP: Garrett Jones
Surprise: Andrew McCutchen
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
MVP: Matt Kemp
Surprise: James Loney
2. Colorado Rockies
MVP: Todd Helton
Surprise: Carlos Gonzalez
3. San Francisco Giants
MVP: Tim Lincecum
Surprise: Madison Bumgarner
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
MVP: Justin Upton
Surprise: Edwin Jackson
5. San Diego Padres
MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
Surprise: Kyle Banks
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays
MVP: Jason Bartlett
Surprise: Sean Rodriguez
2. New York Yankees
MVP: Mark Texeira
Surprise: Phil Hughes
3. Boston Red Sox
MVP: Victor Martinez
Surprise: Clay Buchholz
4. Baltimore Orioles
MVP: Nick Markakis
Surprise: Brian Matusz
5. Toronto Blue Jays
MVP: Vernon Wells
Surprise: Travis Snyder
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
MVP: Joe Mauer
Surprise: Denard Span
2. Chicago White Sox
MVP: Jake Peavy
Surprise: Gavin Floyd
3. Detroit Tigers
MVP: Miguel Cabrera
Surprise: Max Sherzer
4. Kansas City Royals
MVP: Billy Butler
Surprise: Kila Ka'ai
5. Cleveland Indians
MVP: Shin Soo-Choo
Surprise: Lou Marson (shocker)
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
MVP: Bobby Abreu
Surprise: Howie Kendrick
2. Seattle Mariners
MVP: Cliff Lee
Surprise: Milton Bradley
3. Texas Rangers
MVP: Ian Kinsler
Surprise: Chris Davis
4. Oakland Athletics
MVP: Andrew Bailey
Surprise: Michael Taylor (shocker)
NLDS
Phillies over the Houston Ed Wades
Braves over Dodgers
ALDS
Yankees over Angels
Rays over Twins
NLCS
Phillies over Braves
ALCS
Rays over Yankees
WS
Yup 08 Repeat. Phils over Rays but in a closer series.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
The Return of Hollywood
2009 was a year to forget for many, among those were Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge, Yankee Haters, and the creditors union. The list could really go on forever but today we address Colbert "Hollywood" Hamels and his attempt to extinguish the memory of the 2009 season.
Hamels was an absolute phenom when he made his major league debut for the Phillies in 2006. Some viewed him as the savior of the franchise and he did not disappoint. Hamels helped the Phillies get to the playoffs in his first full season, he then carried them to the Broad Street Parade of World F***in Champions the next year.
Who's Partyin?? Hollywood Hamels, that's who!!
Then 2009 came and he got a raw backhand to the face in spring training and never recovered. In 2009, Hamels posted career a worst in winning%, losses, era, hits, whip, basically every single pitching stat that exists. He had a few really good outings that restored hope in Philadelphia but that never materialized as he couldn't pull it together by playoff time. The 2009 playoffs didn't go as swimmingly as 2008 as Hamels went 1-2 in 19 innings while posting an era (7.56) that chased the height of Philadelphia basketball hero, Shawn "the stick" Bradley.
Hamels appeared as if he did nothing in the offseason after the World Series and it really affected his 2009 performance. Hamels has gotten alot of crap for partying too much during the 08 offseason. Ya, you try and become the most decorated postseason hero in Philadelphia history at 24 years old and focus on the task at hand. Good luck.
There is no question that Hamels is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. You don't post great numbers like he did in the minors and his first 3 years in the majors without being talented. Every single great pitcher in this league has gone through struggles after their early success except Tim Lincecum, I guess that is why he's named "the freak." Hamels posted a 4.3 era at 25 years of age, Halladay posted a 4.2 era at 27, Beckett posted a 5.0 era at 26, Chris Carpenter had a 6.2 era when he was 25, and Cliff Lee even got demoted when he was 28.
Hamels seems to have learned his lesson as he has put in some serious work during the offseason. It appears that Hamels has been working on several different offspeed pitches along with developing arm strength early in the season. I believe that the struggles of 2009 will help out Hamels in the long run as it has forced him to refocus himself. I predict a Cy Young type season for Cole. Hollywood will be back with a vengeance.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
THE Prospect List
Over the past few weeks there have been many prospect lists being published. Well I am here to give you my Phillies prospect list. I have said before that it is difficult to compare the value of pitchers to position players so here is the top 25 in both category. Overall the Phillies farm system is much better than people believe. Obviously it was stronger last year as we have lost Marson, Knapp, Carrasco, Donald, Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud. Still, the Phillies have plenty of high ceiling players in the low minors. The Phillies have a plethora of good prospects, it just doesn't seem this way because they are all 18,19,20 years old and are at the very least 2+ years away. Anyways here it the top 50 overall.
Organizational Levels
(AAA) Lehigh Valley IronPigs
(AA) Reading Phillies
(A) Clearwater Threshers
(A-) Lakewood BlueClaws
(A--) Williamsport Crosscutters
(A---) Gulf Coast League Phillies
Pitchers AcronymKey:
RHSP: Right Handed Starting Pitcher
LHSP: Left Handed Starting Pitcher
RHRP: Right Handed Relief Pitcher
LHRP: Left Handed Relief Pitcher
Pitchers
Rank Player Position Level
1 Phillippe Aumont RHSP/RHRP AA
2 Trevor May RHSP A-
3 Antonio Bastardo LHSP/LHRP MLB
4 Jarred Cosart RHSP A---
5 J.C. Ramirez RHSP/RHRP AA
6 Brody Colvin RHSP RHSP A---
7 Scott Mathieson RHRP AA
8 Steven Inch RHSP A---
9 Vance Worley RHSP AA
10 BJ Rosenberg RHRP AA
11 Andrew Carpenter RHSP AAA
12 Colby Shreve RHSP A---
13 Michael Stutes RHSP AA
14 Michael Cisco RHSP AA
15 Yohan Flande RHSP AA
16 Jonathan Pettibone RHSP A--
17 Matt Way LHSP A-
18 Jesus Sanchez RHSP A-
19 Justin Defratus RHRP A-
20 Edgar Garcia RHSP A-
21 Julio Rodriguez RHRP A---
22 Austin Hyatt RHSP/RHRP A-
23 Michael Schwimmer RHRP AA
24 Joe Savery LHSP/LHRP AAA
25 Tyler Cloyd RHSP A
Position Players
Rank Player Position Level
1 Domonic Brown RF/LF AA
2 Tyson Gillies CF AA
3 Anthony Gose CF A-
4 Jonathan Singleton 1B A---
5 Sebastian Valle C A-
6 Domingo Santana RF/LF A---
7 Freddy Galvis SS AA
8 Kyrell Hudson CF A-
9 Zach Collier OF A-
10 Jiwan James CF A--
11 Jonathan Villar SS A---
12 Kelly Dugan RF/LF A---
13 John Mayberry Jr. RF/LF AAA
14 Stephen Susdorf RF/LF AA
15 Leandro Castro CF A-
16 D'Arby Myers CF A-
17 Quintin Berry CF AA
18 Francisco Diaz C A---
19 Tim Kennelly C/3B/OF AA
20 Jeremy Barnes SS A--
21 Anthony Hewitt OF A--
22 Aaron Altherr OF A---
23 Adam Buschini 2B A--
24 Travis Mattair 3B A-
25 Cesar Hernandez 2B A---
Some notes about my list.
Personal Favs:
Bastardo- Maybe best stuff. Would have put #1 if they gave him a chance to start.
Cosart- Absurd athlete. Had a great rookie season even though very small sample size.
Cisco- Insane control. Better name.
Singleton- Great Discipline and power potential. Best pure hitter in the system.
Gillies- Most have him worse than Gose. Similar skills but I like Gillies patience and bat in the long run.
Hudson- Crazy athleticism and he may be faster than Gose.
Organizational Levels
(AAA) Lehigh Valley IronPigs
(AA) Reading Phillies
(A) Clearwater Threshers
(A-) Lakewood BlueClaws
(A--) Williamsport Crosscutters
(A---) Gulf Coast League Phillies
Pitchers AcronymKey:
RHSP: Right Handed Starting Pitcher
LHSP: Left Handed Starting Pitcher
RHRP: Right Handed Relief Pitcher
LHRP: Left Handed Relief Pitcher
Pitchers
Rank Player Position Level
1 Phillippe Aumont RHSP/RHRP AA
2 Trevor May RHSP A-
3 Antonio Bastardo LHSP/LHRP MLB
4 Jarred Cosart RHSP A---
5 J.C. Ramirez RHSP/RHRP AA
6 Brody Colvin RHSP RHSP A---
7 Scott Mathieson RHRP AA
8 Steven Inch RHSP A---
9 Vance Worley RHSP AA
10 BJ Rosenberg RHRP AA
11 Andrew Carpenter RHSP AAA
12 Colby Shreve RHSP A---
13 Michael Stutes RHSP AA
14 Michael Cisco RHSP AA
15 Yohan Flande RHSP AA
16 Jonathan Pettibone RHSP A--
17 Matt Way LHSP A-
18 Jesus Sanchez RHSP A-
19 Justin Defratus RHRP A-
20 Edgar Garcia RHSP A-
21 Julio Rodriguez RHRP A---
22 Austin Hyatt RHSP/RHRP A-
23 Michael Schwimmer RHRP AA
24 Joe Savery LHSP/LHRP AAA
25 Tyler Cloyd RHSP A
Position Players
Rank Player Position Level
1 Domonic Brown RF/LF AA
2 Tyson Gillies CF AA
3 Anthony Gose CF A-
4 Jonathan Singleton 1B A---
5 Sebastian Valle C A-
6 Domingo Santana RF/LF A---
7 Freddy Galvis SS AA
8 Kyrell Hudson CF A-
9 Zach Collier OF A-
10 Jiwan James CF A--
11 Jonathan Villar SS A---
12 Kelly Dugan RF/LF A---
13 John Mayberry Jr. RF/LF AAA
14 Stephen Susdorf RF/LF AA
15 Leandro Castro CF A-
16 D'Arby Myers CF A-
17 Quintin Berry CF AA
18 Francisco Diaz C A---
19 Tim Kennelly C/3B/OF AA
20 Jeremy Barnes SS A--
21 Anthony Hewitt OF A--
22 Aaron Altherr OF A---
23 Adam Buschini 2B A--
24 Travis Mattair 3B A-
25 Cesar Hernandez 2B A---
Some notes about my list.
Personal Favs:
Bastardo- Maybe best stuff. Would have put #1 if they gave him a chance to start.
Cosart- Absurd athlete. Had a great rookie season even though very small sample size.
Cisco- Insane control. Better name.
Singleton- Great Discipline and power potential. Best pure hitter in the system.
Gillies- Most have him worse than Gose. Similar skills but I like Gillies patience and bat in the long run.
Hudson- Crazy athleticism and he may be faster than Gose.
Monday, February 1, 2010
BastardBall: Too Much For Dominica
Ruben Amaro Jr. has made it official that Bastardo will work exclusively as a reliever in 2010 and has taken the appropriate measures to make sure Bastardo is ready for the transition. Antonio Bastardo has been pitching down in the Dominican Winter League and has been nothing short of domination. In 23 innings he has posted a 0.78 era, allowed only 9 hits and 5 walks, while striking out 32 batters.
Here is a link that explains his amazingness in better fashion
http://www.gigantesdelcibao.com/noticias/templates/noticia.asp?articleid=1917&zoneid=3
Bastardo will be in the pen the entire season and will be the primary lefty reliever when romero is injured. Assuming Madson stays with the Phillies after his current contract is up, the Phillies bullpen appears to have a very strong future. Madson, Bastardo, Mathieson, Rosenberg, and Schwimer should all have successful careers for the Phillies for years to come.
The 2010 major league bullpen will have its share of injuries like every bullpen does, and when that happens the Phillies will not need to sign or trade anyone because they will have a schmorgesborg of relief options down on the farm.
Here is a link that explains his amazingness in better fashion
http://www.gigantesdelcibao.com/noticias/templates/noticia.asp?articleid=1917&zoneid=3
Bastardo will be in the pen the entire season and will be the primary lefty reliever when romero is injured. Assuming Madson stays with the Phillies after his current contract is up, the Phillies bullpen appears to have a very strong future. Madson, Bastardo, Mathieson, Rosenberg, and Schwimer should all have successful careers for the Phillies for years to come.
The 2010 major league bullpen will have its share of injuries like every bullpen does, and when that happens the Phillies will not need to sign or trade anyone because they will have a schmorgesborg of relief options down on the farm.
Phillies Prospect Arrested
Phillies pitching prospect, Brody Colvin, was arrested yesterday morning due to having too good of a time it would appear.
According to a spokesman for the Lafayette County Sheriff's Office, Colvin -- was charged with disturbing the peace, simple battery and resisting an officer in Jefferson Street -- an area known for its bars -- at 2:20 a.m. ET Sunday morning.
Colvin was drafted last year by the Phillies in the 7th round out of St. Thomas More High School in Louisiana. Colvin, being 19 years of age, seems to be enjoying his celebrity a little too much. Many will crucify Colvin for this, I say let the kid live a little. He was given a $900,000 signing bonus at 18 years old. At least he's spending it in the proper way, droppin dimes at as many places that will serve him. It turns out that in Louisiana, that is about every place.
Cole Hamels got in similar trouble when he got in a bar fight when he was 19. He also broke his hand in that bar fight which cost him some time on the DL. That's right, Cole Hamels, bar fight, go figure. Anyways, Hamels turned out to be a decent pitcher so the concern isn't too high for Colvin.
Colvin is a high risk high reward type prospect. He clearly is already cashing in on the risk side of that but he also has incredible potential. I currently have him rated as the 6th best pitching prospect in the Phillies system. He only pitched 2 innings in the GCL in 2009 so he is nowhere close to reaching the majors, but he projects as a very good starting pitcher down the road.
It was sad to see Brett "Kenny Powers" Myers leave. At least it seems like the Phillies are grooming another Kenny Powers in the system.
YOUR F**IN OUT!!!
According to a spokesman for the Lafayette County Sheriff's Office, Colvin -- was charged with disturbing the peace, simple battery and resisting an officer in Jefferson Street -- an area known for its bars -- at 2:20 a.m. ET Sunday morning.
Colvin was drafted last year by the Phillies in the 7th round out of St. Thomas More High School in Louisiana. Colvin, being 19 years of age, seems to be enjoying his celebrity a little too much. Many will crucify Colvin for this, I say let the kid live a little. He was given a $900,000 signing bonus at 18 years old. At least he's spending it in the proper way, droppin dimes at as many places that will serve him. It turns out that in Louisiana, that is about every place.
Cole Hamels got in similar trouble when he got in a bar fight when he was 19. He also broke his hand in that bar fight which cost him some time on the DL. That's right, Cole Hamels, bar fight, go figure. Anyways, Hamels turned out to be a decent pitcher so the concern isn't too high for Colvin.
Colvin is a high risk high reward type prospect. He clearly is already cashing in on the risk side of that but he also has incredible potential. I currently have him rated as the 6th best pitching prospect in the Phillies system. He only pitched 2 innings in the GCL in 2009 so he is nowhere close to reaching the majors, but he projects as a very good starting pitcher down the road.
It was sad to see Brett "Kenny Powers" Myers leave. At least it seems like the Phillies are grooming another Kenny Powers in the system.
YOUR F**IN OUT!!!
Friday, January 22, 2010
Pitching Prosect #7: B.J. Rosenberg
B.J. Rosenberg is my next rated pitching prospect and he lands at the #7 spot. This is much higher than most people rate Rosenberg due to his lack of pre-draft hype and the fact that he is a relief pitcher. Relief pitching prospects typically hold less organizational value compared to starting pitching prospects. This is another reason why the Phillies recently converted Phillipe Aumont to a starter.
Rosenberg was drafted in the 13th round in 2008, out of the University of Louisville. There, Rosenberg was a starter until he had a shoulder injury which forced him to miss the entire 2007 season. When Rosenberg came back from injury, the Louisville Cardinals converted him to a reliever where he really seemed more comfortable.
Rosenberg has really forced his way into the prospect rankings due to his success at the minor league level. At the time of the draft, he was not highly touted in any way and wasn't really expected to make the major league roster anytime soon. Rosenberg has completely dominated in his 2 years as a minor league relief pitcher, and that cannot be ignored. In 2008, Rosenberg pitched at Williamsport and completely embarrassed the New York Penn League hitters. In 36 innings, he went 3-1 with 10 saves and posted a 1.00 era, Rosenberg struck out 52 batters compared to only 15 walks. In 2009, Rosenberg continued his dominance as he started the year in Lakewood and finished up in Reading. Rosenberg pitched a total of 61 innings between the two leagues and finished with a 7-3 record and 22 saves. He posted a 1.18 era while striking out 73 batters compared to only 14 walks.
Rosenberg will probably start the 2010 season at Reading, as he didn't pitch too much at that level. Assuming Rosenberg continues his success, he will probably see Lehigh Valley pretty quickly in 2010. The Phillies think enough of Rosenberg that he will be invited to spring training this year, so it will be nice to see what he can do against actual major league hitters. He hosts a 92-95 mph fastball and a good slider, he also has a changeup but doesn't use it too often. The most impressive thing about B.J. is his ability to command his pitches as he can throw them at anytime. He is 23 years old and due to the combination of his pitching ability and maturity, he probably has the ability to get major league hitters out right now. He also may get the chance to prove that in 2010 as Contreras is 38 years old, Baez and Durbin have both been injured in the past 2 years, and both Romero and Lidge will start the season on the DL. If the Phillies bullpen does need to bring somebody up, Rosenberg will probably get a look right after Mathieson.
Rosenberg was drafted in the 13th round in 2008, out of the University of Louisville. There, Rosenberg was a starter until he had a shoulder injury which forced him to miss the entire 2007 season. When Rosenberg came back from injury, the Louisville Cardinals converted him to a reliever where he really seemed more comfortable.
Rosenberg has really forced his way into the prospect rankings due to his success at the minor league level. At the time of the draft, he was not highly touted in any way and wasn't really expected to make the major league roster anytime soon. Rosenberg has completely dominated in his 2 years as a minor league relief pitcher, and that cannot be ignored. In 2008, Rosenberg pitched at Williamsport and completely embarrassed the New York Penn League hitters. In 36 innings, he went 3-1 with 10 saves and posted a 1.00 era, Rosenberg struck out 52 batters compared to only 15 walks. In 2009, Rosenberg continued his dominance as he started the year in Lakewood and finished up in Reading. Rosenberg pitched a total of 61 innings between the two leagues and finished with a 7-3 record and 22 saves. He posted a 1.18 era while striking out 73 batters compared to only 14 walks.
Rosenberg will probably start the 2010 season at Reading, as he didn't pitch too much at that level. Assuming Rosenberg continues his success, he will probably see Lehigh Valley pretty quickly in 2010. The Phillies think enough of Rosenberg that he will be invited to spring training this year, so it will be nice to see what he can do against actual major league hitters. He hosts a 92-95 mph fastball and a good slider, he also has a changeup but doesn't use it too often. The most impressive thing about B.J. is his ability to command his pitches as he can throw them at anytime. He is 23 years old and due to the combination of his pitching ability and maturity, he probably has the ability to get major league hitters out right now. He also may get the chance to prove that in 2010 as Contreras is 38 years old, Baez and Durbin have both been injured in the past 2 years, and both Romero and Lidge will start the season on the DL. If the Phillies bullpen does need to bring somebody up, Rosenberg will probably get a look right after Mathieson.
Phils Sign Jose Contreras
The Phillies are reported to have signed Jose Contreras to a 1-year deal. Contreras had a 4.92 era in 2009 so the signing doesn't hold much promise, especially when considering that he is 38 years of age. Amaro hasn't made any official comment on the signing, so the amount of the deal isn't known at this point. Due to Contreras's decline in recent years I couldn't imagine that the Phils reached too deep into their pockets for this one, or at least I hope not. This signing reminds me alot of the Ryan Franklin signing. Lets hope this works out better. Both have been starters for their entire career with a handful of relief appearences. The Phillies will allow Contreras to compete for the 5th rotational spot but it is clear that the Phillies want that to go to Kyle Kendrick. At this point I think the Phillies see Contreras as a good long relief option and if anything else, just decent insurance policy for Kendrick/Moyer.
Phillies Extend Victorino
On Friday the Phillies officially signed Shane Victorino to a multi-year extension. They signed him for $22 million over 3 years. $7.33 million per year is very fair for Victorino even though he was only asking for $5.8 million in arbitration this year. This keeps Victorino on the Phillies through his first year of free agency where he probably would of demanded a much larger annual salary along with more years, especially after his projected increase in power and rbi numbers in the 2010 season. Yes, that will happen while batting in the 7-hole for 162 games. This was an intelligent fiscal move by Amaro because it locks up an elite centerfielder. It is very nice to see a general manager of a championship team thinking multiple years down the road. It is also nice to see a general manager not locking players up to extensively long contracts.
The only negative one can take out of this signing would be the departure of Werth. Unless Amaro trades somebody in the offseason, Werth is guaranteed to be hitting the free agent market. From there, Werth will be gone as he will be searching a substantial pocket enhancer. I just hope that the Mets won't be pursuing him. That would blow. Even before the Victorino signing it appeared that the Phillies wouldn't be able to resign Werth, so it's not really devastating. At least our 2011 rightfielder won't be looking like this. What the hell was he thinking.
The only negative one can take out of this signing would be the departure of Werth. Unless Amaro trades somebody in the offseason, Werth is guaranteed to be hitting the free agent market. From there, Werth will be gone as he will be searching a substantial pocket enhancer. I just hope that the Mets won't be pursuing him. That would blow. Even before the Victorino signing it appeared that the Phillies wouldn't be able to resign Werth, so it's not really devastating. At least our 2011 rightfielder won't be looking like this. What the hell was he thinking.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Phillies Extend Blanton
The Phillies have just signed a 3 year extension with Joe Blanton worth $24 million. By extending Big Joe, the Phillies avoid arbitration where they could have potentially, but unlikely, paid him $10.25 million this year. This is a good signing as Joe Blanton is a very quality pitcher and one of the most durable in the majors. Blanton is a very underrated pitcher because he doesn't do anything spectacular but is extremely consistent and rarely has bad outings. 2009 could have been a breakout season for Blanton if he didn't have such a poor start. This is actually an amazing signing when you compare that the last pitcher the Phillies signed at 3 years for $24 million was Adam Eaton. I am predicting that Blanton will have the best season of his career to date winning 17 games. Yes, bold, but Blanton is a much better pitcher than most think. For me to be so high on Blanton is rare because I am still a little bitter due to the fact that Josh Outman and Adrian Cardenas are no longer in the Phillies system. I guess Outman would be a little overkill though, how many young lefthanded starting pitchers does one team need.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Phils Looking to Extend Victorino
The Phillies are making an attempt to resign Shane Victorino to a multi-year deal. At this point it is assumed that the deal will be 2 years in length which means almost nothing. This means little because the Phillies have Victorino under team control for the next two years anyway. Victorino has officially filed for arbitration just this past week and he will again be arbitration eligible next year. The Phillies front office has shown in the past that they do not like taking their players to arbitration.
By signing Victorino for the next two seasons, it avoids the arbitration hearings and all but guarantees that he will be on the Phillies the next two seasons. Locking up Victorino now will save the Phillies a few dollars in the long run which is always a good thing.
If the Phillies end up extending Victorino, this probably means that Werth will be gone after this year, which shouldn't come to a surprise by most. By 2011, the Phillies braintrust will be forced to decide between Victorino and Werth unless they find that magical pot of gold at the end of the Lucky Charms rainbow. This means that with Shane locked up at a reasonable price, they would have to trade him to make room for Werth's newly deepened pockets. It just seems that if the Phillies have plans on resigning Werth, Victorino wouldn't be getting a 2011 contract this soon.
Other Phillies Tids and Tats
Blanton has asked for $10.25 million in arbitration which is pretty ridiculous. $10 million is the highest ever awarded to a player in arbitration, so if it does go to the arbitrator, the Phillies will more than likely be the victors. The Phillies are offering $7.5 million.
The Phillies will be trying out Eric Gagne this week. Please no. He did not pitch at all in 2009 and posted a depressing 5.44 era in 2008. As I have made it clear before, I believe the Phillies internal options are much better than the run of the mill relief pitchers that are floating around the league. Scott Mathieson, Brian Rosenberg, Mike Zagurski, Michael Schwimer, Antonio Bastardo, and Sergio Escalona are all quality internal options.
Jimmy Rollins is getting married this weekend in the Grand Cayman's. While at his hotel there was an earthquake recorded at a magnitdue of 5.8. What is happening down there. Bobby Abreu will be his best man.
Shane Victorino has released his own clothing collection through Silverstar.
The Phillies have committed Bastardo to the bullpen. He pitched in the Dominican Winter League and did very well. He posted a 1.50 era in short relief during the regular season. It's good to see that Philadelphia will be seeing BastardBall 3-4 times a week. Get yo popcorn ready.
By signing Victorino for the next two seasons, it avoids the arbitration hearings and all but guarantees that he will be on the Phillies the next two seasons. Locking up Victorino now will save the Phillies a few dollars in the long run which is always a good thing.
If the Phillies end up extending Victorino, this probably means that Werth will be gone after this year, which shouldn't come to a surprise by most. By 2011, the Phillies braintrust will be forced to decide between Victorino and Werth unless they find that magical pot of gold at the end of the Lucky Charms rainbow. This means that with Shane locked up at a reasonable price, they would have to trade him to make room for Werth's newly deepened pockets. It just seems that if the Phillies have plans on resigning Werth, Victorino wouldn't be getting a 2011 contract this soon.
Other Phillies Tids and Tats
Blanton has asked for $10.25 million in arbitration which is pretty ridiculous. $10 million is the highest ever awarded to a player in arbitration, so if it does go to the arbitrator, the Phillies will more than likely be the victors. The Phillies are offering $7.5 million.
The Phillies will be trying out Eric Gagne this week. Please no. He did not pitch at all in 2009 and posted a depressing 5.44 era in 2008. As I have made it clear before, I believe the Phillies internal options are much better than the run of the mill relief pitchers that are floating around the league. Scott Mathieson, Brian Rosenberg, Mike Zagurski, Michael Schwimer, Antonio Bastardo, and Sergio Escalona are all quality internal options.
Jimmy Rollins is getting married this weekend in the Grand Cayman's. While at his hotel there was an earthquake recorded at a magnitdue of 5.8. What is happening down there. Bobby Abreu will be his best man.
Shane Victorino has released his own clothing collection through Silverstar.
The Phillies have committed Bastardo to the bullpen. He pitched in the Dominican Winter League and did very well. He posted a 1.50 era in short relief during the regular season. It's good to see that Philadelphia will be seeing BastardBall 3-4 times a week. Get yo popcorn ready.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Phillies Move Aumont to Starter
The Phillies officially announced on Tuesday that they have plans to convert Phillipe Aumont back to a starter. Aumont was the main prospect involved in the Cliff Lee deal, and has almost unlimited potential. Aumont was drafted by Seattle in 2007, 11th overall, where he started his career as a starting pitcher but was moved to a relief role due to injury concerns. Aumont has pitched very well to date, as he has posted a 3.2 era in 106 innings, while striking out 109 compared to only 91 hits.
Moving Aumont to a starting role makes the Cliff Lee deal look significantly better as starting pitching prospects are much more valuable than relief pitching prospects. Originally it appeared that the Phillies replaced their best pitching prospect in Kyle Drabek, with a good relief pitching prospect. Even though Aumont doesn't appear to be a significant drop off in talent, he represented significantly lesser value as a prospect since he was situated in the bullpen.
2010 is a big year for Aumont because he has the ability to ease the Phillies concerns for losing Drabek. When comparing Aumont to Drabek, they both appear very similar based on pitching ability. Both throw a mid-90s fastball with a 12-6 power curveball and an improving changeup. It seems that in Philadelphia, fans are seriously overrating Drabek's abilities, and underrating Aumont's abilities. Across the board, Aumont has much better statistics, albeit mostly as a reliever, but he has still outperformed Drabek to this point in their minor league careers.
Aumont will start the season in the Reading rotation which should be an exhilarating rotation as the mound will see legitimate prospects every day. I expect the rotation to appear as this in no particular order, Worley, Cisco, Flande, Aumont, and Ramirez. Worley and Flande could start in triple-A but due to the Phillies history of being conservative in player development, I expect them to start in double-A and then be promoted to triple-A. The organization will eventually have to make room in Reading for top pitching prospect, Trevor May. That is assuming that May continues to embarass batters at his current rate, 2.72 era and 10.7 SO/9.
One last thing to note, Aumont is 6'7" and 220 lbs. He is officially the second tallest player in Phillies history, only behind 6'8" Gene Conley who played in the 1960s. That should be fun to watch. The Reading Phillies should be ready to welcome Mount Aumont.
Moving Aumont to a starting role makes the Cliff Lee deal look significantly better as starting pitching prospects are much more valuable than relief pitching prospects. Originally it appeared that the Phillies replaced their best pitching prospect in Kyle Drabek, with a good relief pitching prospect. Even though Aumont doesn't appear to be a significant drop off in talent, he represented significantly lesser value as a prospect since he was situated in the bullpen.
2010 is a big year for Aumont because he has the ability to ease the Phillies concerns for losing Drabek. When comparing Aumont to Drabek, they both appear very similar based on pitching ability. Both throw a mid-90s fastball with a 12-6 power curveball and an improving changeup. It seems that in Philadelphia, fans are seriously overrating Drabek's abilities, and underrating Aumont's abilities. Across the board, Aumont has much better statistics, albeit mostly as a reliever, but he has still outperformed Drabek to this point in their minor league careers.
Aumont will start the season in the Reading rotation which should be an exhilarating rotation as the mound will see legitimate prospects every day. I expect the rotation to appear as this in no particular order, Worley, Cisco, Flande, Aumont, and Ramirez. Worley and Flande could start in triple-A but due to the Phillies history of being conservative in player development, I expect them to start in double-A and then be promoted to triple-A. The organization will eventually have to make room in Reading for top pitching prospect, Trevor May. That is assuming that May continues to embarass batters at his current rate, 2.72 era and 10.7 SO/9.
One last thing to note, Aumont is 6'7" and 220 lbs. He is officially the second tallest player in Phillies history, only behind 6'8" Gene Conley who played in the 1960s. That should be fun to watch. The Reading Phillies should be ready to welcome Mount Aumont.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Pitching Prosect #8: J.C. Ramirez
The eighth pitching prospect slot goes to newly acquired Juan Ramirez. Ramirez was one of the prospects that the Phillies received in the Cliff Lee deal. Ramirez is the worst prospect of the three but is still a good prospect. I will admit that I am not as high on Ramirez as most. He was signed in 2005 out of Nicaragua, he was 16 years old at the time. Ramirez is a 6'3" righthanded starting pitcher that can only be defined as a power pitcher.
Ramirez looks like a thrower more than a pitcher at this point in his career but still is young, 21, and has time to learn. He throws a hard fastball that reaches 96 mph, a hard slider, and an improving changeup. Ramirez can be erratic at times, but he is only 21 years old, most 21 year old pitchers are erratic. He hasn’t quite put it all together as a pitcher because he is still very raw. In his 4 years in the minors, Ramirez has posted a 4.12 era in 406 innings. Even though Ramirez is a bit erratic, batters still have a difficult time hitting him as he has only given up 369 hits in those 406 innings. Ramirez is currently a starter in advanced single-A, but with his power fastball he projects as a good reliever down the road.
Ramirez reminds me a lot of Ryan Madson as they are both very tall, lanky, right handers. They also have a very similar repertoire, as they both have good overpowering fastballs, changeups, and a breaking pitch. Ramirez differs a bit from Madson because his breaking pitch is a slider compared to Madson's curveball, and Ramirez's slider is his #2 pitch where Madson's changeup was his #2 pitch. In the first 4 seasons of both pitchers' careers, Ramirez has posted a 4.1 era in 406 innings compared to Madson's 3.77 era in 394 innings. Madson pitched his entire minorleague career as a starter and wasn't converted to a reliever until he was promoted to Philadelphia. I believe the Phillies will take a similar approach to Ramirez based on how his pitches develop.
Ramirez has definitely pitched below his abilities to this point in his career but this is mainly due to having to pitch in a hitter friendly park in 2009 and being younger than his competition. Many Hispanic born pitchers take longer to develop than American pitchers due to signing at such a young age. Many Hispanic born prospects are signed at 16 years old. Personally, I was just studying for my permit test. Not quite as much pressure as playing professional baseball against 21-22 year olds.
I do believe that Ramirez is better suited for a reliever role but if he can improve both of his offspeed pitches, he can easily project into an elite starting pitching prospect. Keith Law, who works for ESPN, has stated that he projects Ramirez as a potential #2 starter in the majors. This is very high praise for a Ramirez and makes me think that his offspeed pitches are better than advertised. 2010 will be a big year for Ramirez as he will be 21 years old and pitching in AA Reading. Ramirez is another prospect that could make a serious jump in the prospect rankings or fade a bit if he repeats his 2009 numbers.
Ramirez looks like a thrower more than a pitcher at this point in his career but still is young, 21, and has time to learn. He throws a hard fastball that reaches 96 mph, a hard slider, and an improving changeup. Ramirez can be erratic at times, but he is only 21 years old, most 21 year old pitchers are erratic. He hasn’t quite put it all together as a pitcher because he is still very raw. In his 4 years in the minors, Ramirez has posted a 4.12 era in 406 innings. Even though Ramirez is a bit erratic, batters still have a difficult time hitting him as he has only given up 369 hits in those 406 innings. Ramirez is currently a starter in advanced single-A, but with his power fastball he projects as a good reliever down the road.
Ramirez reminds me a lot of Ryan Madson as they are both very tall, lanky, right handers. They also have a very similar repertoire, as they both have good overpowering fastballs, changeups, and a breaking pitch. Ramirez differs a bit from Madson because his breaking pitch is a slider compared to Madson's curveball, and Ramirez's slider is his #2 pitch where Madson's changeup was his #2 pitch. In the first 4 seasons of both pitchers' careers, Ramirez has posted a 4.1 era in 406 innings compared to Madson's 3.77 era in 394 innings. Madson pitched his entire minorleague career as a starter and wasn't converted to a reliever until he was promoted to Philadelphia. I believe the Phillies will take a similar approach to Ramirez based on how his pitches develop.
Ramirez has definitely pitched below his abilities to this point in his career but this is mainly due to having to pitch in a hitter friendly park in 2009 and being younger than his competition. Many Hispanic born pitchers take longer to develop than American pitchers due to signing at such a young age. Many Hispanic born prospects are signed at 16 years old. Personally, I was just studying for my permit test. Not quite as much pressure as playing professional baseball against 21-22 year olds.
I do believe that Ramirez is better suited for a reliever role but if he can improve both of his offspeed pitches, he can easily project into an elite starting pitching prospect. Keith Law, who works for ESPN, has stated that he projects Ramirez as a potential #2 starter in the majors. This is very high praise for a Ramirez and makes me think that his offspeed pitches are better than advertised. 2010 will be a big year for Ramirez as he will be 21 years old and pitching in AA Reading. Ramirez is another prospect that could make a serious jump in the prospect rankings or fade a bit if he repeats his 2009 numbers.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Phillies Sign Danys Baez
The Phillies finally addressed their biggest need, the bullpen. The Phillies officially welcomed righthanded reliever, Danys Baez, as they signed him to a 2-year $5.25 million contract. Baez has had a solid career as a reliever, including an all-star appearence in 2005 as the Devil Rays closer. Since then he has really tailed off and has become fairly pedestrian as he posted a 4.02 era in 2009.
Even though a 4.02 era is not very inspiring as the only bullpen acquisition to date, Baez does hold the ability to be a dominant reliever. As previously stated, Baez was an all-star closer in 2005. Baez also didn't pitch at all during 2008 as he had elbow surgery, so a 4.02 era in 2009 isn't too bad when you define it as a recovery season.
Baez will be taking the place of the departed Chan Ho Park. Park would have been great to retain but he was asking for too much money and he wanted to be a starter again. Apparantly he thinks teams are searching for starters that have an era close to the height of Dikembe Mutombo Mpolondo Mukamba Jean-Jacques Wamutombo. I am not expecting Baez to be as effective as Park, the reliever version, but he should be a dependable arm. Baez should definitely be improved from last year as he will be regaining strength in his elbow, but still shouldn't be expected to pitch at his all-star level. Anything in between there should be a welcome addition to the Phillies bullpen.
On a related note, Scott Eyre is not expected to return to the Phillies due to salary demands. This means that Bastardo will officially be in the bullpen the entire year and Escalona will be on the major league squad until J.C. Romero comes back from injury.
With the addition of Baez, only one more bullpen spot will need to be filled. This spot will most likely be filled by right-handed Scott Mathieson. I can only hope that the Phillies don't go out and sign a below average free agent reliever, because Mathieson has the ability to be the Phillies' next Ryan Madson.
Many are disappointed as how the current bullpen stands. I really don't think it's that bad. Lidge will be, at the very least, an above average closer again. Madson, will again be an elite setup man. The combination of Romero and Bastardo will be two of the best loogies in the league. The key to the bullpen is Durbin, if he can pitch anywhere close to how he appeared in 2008, the bullpen will be very good. The 2008 Phillies bullpen was one of the best in the league. The 2009 Phillies bullpen was one of the worst in the league. The pitchers in the 2010 bullpen should pitch much more like the 08 bullpen than the 09 bullpen. The Phillies have the best defense, the best offense, and a very good rotation. If the bullpen is average, the Phillies will again find themselves playing in the fall classic.
Even though a 4.02 era is not very inspiring as the only bullpen acquisition to date, Baez does hold the ability to be a dominant reliever. As previously stated, Baez was an all-star closer in 2005. Baez also didn't pitch at all during 2008 as he had elbow surgery, so a 4.02 era in 2009 isn't too bad when you define it as a recovery season.
Baez will be taking the place of the departed Chan Ho Park. Park would have been great to retain but he was asking for too much money and he wanted to be a starter again. Apparantly he thinks teams are searching for starters that have an era close to the height of Dikembe Mutombo Mpolondo Mukamba Jean-Jacques Wamutombo. I am not expecting Baez to be as effective as Park, the reliever version, but he should be a dependable arm. Baez should definitely be improved from last year as he will be regaining strength in his elbow, but still shouldn't be expected to pitch at his all-star level. Anything in between there should be a welcome addition to the Phillies bullpen.
On a related note, Scott Eyre is not expected to return to the Phillies due to salary demands. This means that Bastardo will officially be in the bullpen the entire year and Escalona will be on the major league squad until J.C. Romero comes back from injury.
With the addition of Baez, only one more bullpen spot will need to be filled. This spot will most likely be filled by right-handed Scott Mathieson. I can only hope that the Phillies don't go out and sign a below average free agent reliever, because Mathieson has the ability to be the Phillies' next Ryan Madson.
Many are disappointed as how the current bullpen stands. I really don't think it's that bad. Lidge will be, at the very least, an above average closer again. Madson, will again be an elite setup man. The combination of Romero and Bastardo will be two of the best loogies in the league. The key to the bullpen is Durbin, if he can pitch anywhere close to how he appeared in 2008, the bullpen will be very good. The 2008 Phillies bullpen was one of the best in the league. The 2009 Phillies bullpen was one of the worst in the league. The pitchers in the 2010 bullpen should pitch much more like the 08 bullpen than the 09 bullpen. The Phillies have the best defense, the best offense, and a very good rotation. If the bullpen is average, the Phillies will again find themselves playing in the fall classic.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
What is Happening with the Bullpen
The 2009 Phillies had a good season as they won the National League for the second year in a row, even though it seemed that a few aspects of the team performed under their capabilities. There is no question that Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, and Brad Lidge had less than stellar seasons. I expect all three to rebound from their 2009 seasons and based on their career numbers, they should have no problem returning to form. Rollins puts up consistent numbers when comparing seasons as a whole, Hamels never really had a bad season until 2009, and Lidge has always followed up a bad season with a career year. With an improved Rollins, the already potent lineup becomes a wrecking machine. With an improved Hamels, the Phillies rotation boasts 2 bonafide aces with the potential for a third, in Happ. With an improved Lidge, the back of the bullpen becomes solidified, but the bullpen in general still has to be viewed as the weakest part of the team.
Going into the offseason, the Phillies weaknesses were pretty easy to identify. These weaknesses were the bench, thirdbase, and most importantly, the bullpen. The Phillies significantly improved their bench with the additions of Gload, Schneider, and Castro. Even without the additions of these three players, the Phillies improved their bench dramatically just by discarding Eric Bruntlett. If that isn’t the definition of addition by subtraction, I don’t know what is. The Phillies also improved the thirdbase position as they refused to pick up the option on Pedro Feliz and then acquired Placido Polanco to replace him. That would be a classic addition by addition move. With all the moves that the Phillies have made this offseason, it seems as if they have avoided their biggest need, bullpen help. Granted there were more valuable players at other positions, but the bullpen needed the most improvement. The Phillies have officially lost Park and Myers, and the return of Eyre is still in question.
The Phillies have been rumored to be in talks with many different relievers this offseason including, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, Ron Mahay, and the latest being Mike Macdougal and Danys Baez. Lyon and Rodney could have been high on the Phillies priority list in the beginning of the offseason, but they quickly became out of the Phillies price range after devoting $18 million to Placido Polanco. This then limited the Phillies to go after a few mid-level relievers. It really is unfortunate that this free agent class is the worst class this decade. As more and more players are being signed, it seems that the Phillies are content on their current bullpen options. At first glance, this appears as a horrible decision because the Phillies bullpen was horrendous last year and they could potentially lose 4 pitchers in Myers, Park, Eyre, and Condrey. How could this be viewed as an improvement, if anything, the porous bullpen has digressed. So how can the Phillies be content on their current bullpen options? Who are these options?
These options are 47-year old Jamie Moyer and a collection of pitchers from the Phillies farm system. If you take a look at the Phillies prospects, they are bullpen heavy, and outfield heavy. Many times the relief pitching prospects will not get much attention because they will be viewed as having limited ceilings. Generally they are older prospects as they are either converted starters or were college closers. The way the Phillies have drafted in recent years, they seem to draft high potential toolsy type position players early, and then alternate between high school and college pitchers in the later rounds. Because of this, the Phillies have a smorgasbord of good relief pitchers in their farm system.
The minor league pitchers that could find themselves with a legitimate opportunity to pitch in the Phillies bullpen in 2010 are almost unlimited. There are 2 starters in Lehigh Valley that could find time in Andrew Carpenter and Joe Savery. There are 3 more starters in Reading that could see Philadelphia in Yohan Flande, Vance Worley, and Michael Stutes. And there are 4 relievers in Reading that could be given a shot in Scott Mathieson, B.J. Rosenberg, Michael “not David” Schwimmer, and Sergio Escalona. That is 11 different pitching prospects in just 2 levels, and that is not even including Antonio Bastardo who finished the season on the major league squad. All of the aforementioned pitchers have major league talent and many of them will be major league ready in 2010. The pitchers that have the best chance of appearing in the Phillies bullpen in 2010 are Mathieson, Bastardo, Escalona, Carpenter, and as a long shot, Vance Worley.
Mathieson originally was destined to start the 2010 season in triple-A but with the lack of movement by the Phillies front office, it appears that Mathieson is all but guaranteed a bullpen spot out of spring training. Mathieson, once he makes it back to the majors, will be an amazing story. Mathieson was originally a starting pitcher in the Phillies farm system and was promoted to the Phillies starting rotation in 2006. Mathieson didn’t do stellar as he fell off towards the end of the season but he showed a lot of promise in his fastball and slider. It became apparent on why Mathieson fell off during the end of the 2006 season, as he had severe elbow issues and had to be shut down due to injury. Since the end of the 2006 season, Mathieson has undergone 3 elbow surgeries, 2 of which were Tommy John surgeries. Even before the array of elbow injuries, Mathieson was projected as a future closer based on his over powering fastball and hard biting slider. After his 3 elbow surgeries it made the decision much easier to change him from starter to reliever. Mathieson made it back on the mound towards the end of this year for the first time in over 3 years and showed that the surgeries didn’t affect his ability to pitch at all. In 22 games, through 3 different levels, Mathieson was 4-0 with a 0.84 era while striking out 34 compared to only 17 hits allowed. I mentioned before that he has an overpowering fastball and that could stand as an understatement. I have witnessed on multiple occasions his fastball reaching 102 mph. With a 102 mph fastball and a good slider, it hurts to say but Billy Wagner would be a great comparison to Mathieson. Lucky for the Phillies, Mathieson is actually liked by teammates and doesn’t possess facial features or personality traits that resemble disease carrying rodents.
Antonio Bastardo is a very interesting prospect as he has been a starter in the Phillies farm system for his entire career and was thrust into the Phillies rotation in 2009 but will be expected to be a major part of the Phillies bullpen in 2010. If the Phillies do not bring Scott Eyre back, Bastardo will be the primary left-handed reliever in the Phillies bullpen, at least for the beginning portion of the 2010 season. This exists because J.C. Romero will be recovering from off-season elbow surgery and is not expected to be ready by the opening of the season. Bastardo has starting ability, there is no question about that, but currently provides more value to the Phillies as a reliever. Bastardo is 23-years old and throws a low 90s fastball, a filthy changeup, and slider. Bastardo doesn’t get much attention in terms of a young player coming up through the system. This surprises me because he has absolutely embarrassed batters in his 3 seasons in the minors. First of all, it is extremely rare for a non collegiate player to go through the farm system in less than 3 years. In Bastardo’s first full season in the Phillies system, he went 10-0 with a 2.14 era. Overall, Bastardo is 19-9 with a 2.58 era in 271 innings. What makes Bastardo such an incredible prospect is that he strikes out batters at a very good rate and he refuses to allow batters to get contact on his pitches. In his 3 seasons in the minors, Bastardo has struck out 10 batters per 9 innings and only allowed 6.7 hits per 9 innings. Bastardo appears to be very deceiving as he consistently blows batters away with his 90 mph fastball and makes them then look silly on his changeup. As a reliever, Bastardo appears almost identical to J.C. Romero, as they are both left-handed, throw the same exact pitches with almost identical throwing motions, are the same size, and are both Caribbean born. With both of these players on the team and in the same exact role, it should really benefit Bastardo as he can really learn a lot from Romero.
As long Romero is injured, Escalona will be on the major league squad as he is the next best left-handed option in the Phillies system. Escalona is a good minor league reliever as he has posted a 3.40 era in 306 innings, he has struck out 309 batters, and allowed only 294 hits. Escalona does not have electric stuff as his fastball sits at about 88-89 but he changes speeds affectively enough to get batters out. Escalona is a solid option as the second left-hander out of the pen. He wouldn’t do any worse than Jack Taschner last year.
Carpenter is also interesting because he has made a few spot starts for the Phillies in the past and will be involved in the competition for the 5th starter’s spot in spring training. Carpenter has been a good starter in the Phillies farm system for a few years even though he doesn’t appear to have dominating stuff. In 2009, Carpenter was one of the better pitchers in the International League as he was 11-6 with a 3.35 era. Carpenter usually sits in the low 90s with his fastball and throws an average slider and changeup. He projects as a decent middle reliever and could take Clay Condrey’s previous position.
A long shot to make an appearance in the Phillies bullpen would be double-A starter, Vance Worley. Worley was just drafted last year so he still is very inexperienced but the Phillies front office seems to really like Worley. Worley was being scouted by advanced scouts including Ruben Amaro Jr., during the time of Bastardo’s promotion and then again during the trade deadline. The Phillies would rather take time and develop Worley as a starter but if the other bullpen options fail, Worley could get a look.
It seems like a risky move for a championship contending team to go with a handful of unknown pitchers in the bullpen but talent usually wins out over experience. The Phillies took a similar risk in 2003 on minor league starter Ryan Madson. That year, Madson was undeniably the best reliever the Phillies had and would not have found themselves in a playoff race without him. The current options that the Phillies possess are talented enough to not be concerned about their lack of experience.
Going into the offseason, the Phillies weaknesses were pretty easy to identify. These weaknesses were the bench, thirdbase, and most importantly, the bullpen. The Phillies significantly improved their bench with the additions of Gload, Schneider, and Castro. Even without the additions of these three players, the Phillies improved their bench dramatically just by discarding Eric Bruntlett. If that isn’t the definition of addition by subtraction, I don’t know what is. The Phillies also improved the thirdbase position as they refused to pick up the option on Pedro Feliz and then acquired Placido Polanco to replace him. That would be a classic addition by addition move. With all the moves that the Phillies have made this offseason, it seems as if they have avoided their biggest need, bullpen help. Granted there were more valuable players at other positions, but the bullpen needed the most improvement. The Phillies have officially lost Park and Myers, and the return of Eyre is still in question.
The Phillies have been rumored to be in talks with many different relievers this offseason including, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, Ron Mahay, and the latest being Mike Macdougal and Danys Baez. Lyon and Rodney could have been high on the Phillies priority list in the beginning of the offseason, but they quickly became out of the Phillies price range after devoting $18 million to Placido Polanco. This then limited the Phillies to go after a few mid-level relievers. It really is unfortunate that this free agent class is the worst class this decade. As more and more players are being signed, it seems that the Phillies are content on their current bullpen options. At first glance, this appears as a horrible decision because the Phillies bullpen was horrendous last year and they could potentially lose 4 pitchers in Myers, Park, Eyre, and Condrey. How could this be viewed as an improvement, if anything, the porous bullpen has digressed. So how can the Phillies be content on their current bullpen options? Who are these options?
These options are 47-year old Jamie Moyer and a collection of pitchers from the Phillies farm system. If you take a look at the Phillies prospects, they are bullpen heavy, and outfield heavy. Many times the relief pitching prospects will not get much attention because they will be viewed as having limited ceilings. Generally they are older prospects as they are either converted starters or were college closers. The way the Phillies have drafted in recent years, they seem to draft high potential toolsy type position players early, and then alternate between high school and college pitchers in the later rounds. Because of this, the Phillies have a smorgasbord of good relief pitchers in their farm system.
The minor league pitchers that could find themselves with a legitimate opportunity to pitch in the Phillies bullpen in 2010 are almost unlimited. There are 2 starters in Lehigh Valley that could find time in Andrew Carpenter and Joe Savery. There are 3 more starters in Reading that could see Philadelphia in Yohan Flande, Vance Worley, and Michael Stutes. And there are 4 relievers in Reading that could be given a shot in Scott Mathieson, B.J. Rosenberg, Michael “not David” Schwimmer, and Sergio Escalona. That is 11 different pitching prospects in just 2 levels, and that is not even including Antonio Bastardo who finished the season on the major league squad. All of the aforementioned pitchers have major league talent and many of them will be major league ready in 2010. The pitchers that have the best chance of appearing in the Phillies bullpen in 2010 are Mathieson, Bastardo, Escalona, Carpenter, and as a long shot, Vance Worley.
Mathieson originally was destined to start the 2010 season in triple-A but with the lack of movement by the Phillies front office, it appears that Mathieson is all but guaranteed a bullpen spot out of spring training. Mathieson, once he makes it back to the majors, will be an amazing story. Mathieson was originally a starting pitcher in the Phillies farm system and was promoted to the Phillies starting rotation in 2006. Mathieson didn’t do stellar as he fell off towards the end of the season but he showed a lot of promise in his fastball and slider. It became apparent on why Mathieson fell off during the end of the 2006 season, as he had severe elbow issues and had to be shut down due to injury. Since the end of the 2006 season, Mathieson has undergone 3 elbow surgeries, 2 of which were Tommy John surgeries. Even before the array of elbow injuries, Mathieson was projected as a future closer based on his over powering fastball and hard biting slider. After his 3 elbow surgeries it made the decision much easier to change him from starter to reliever. Mathieson made it back on the mound towards the end of this year for the first time in over 3 years and showed that the surgeries didn’t affect his ability to pitch at all. In 22 games, through 3 different levels, Mathieson was 4-0 with a 0.84 era while striking out 34 compared to only 17 hits allowed. I mentioned before that he has an overpowering fastball and that could stand as an understatement. I have witnessed on multiple occasions his fastball reaching 102 mph. With a 102 mph fastball and a good slider, it hurts to say but Billy Wagner would be a great comparison to Mathieson. Lucky for the Phillies, Mathieson is actually liked by teammates and doesn’t possess facial features or personality traits that resemble disease carrying rodents.
Antonio Bastardo is a very interesting prospect as he has been a starter in the Phillies farm system for his entire career and was thrust into the Phillies rotation in 2009 but will be expected to be a major part of the Phillies bullpen in 2010. If the Phillies do not bring Scott Eyre back, Bastardo will be the primary left-handed reliever in the Phillies bullpen, at least for the beginning portion of the 2010 season. This exists because J.C. Romero will be recovering from off-season elbow surgery and is not expected to be ready by the opening of the season. Bastardo has starting ability, there is no question about that, but currently provides more value to the Phillies as a reliever. Bastardo is 23-years old and throws a low 90s fastball, a filthy changeup, and slider. Bastardo doesn’t get much attention in terms of a young player coming up through the system. This surprises me because he has absolutely embarrassed batters in his 3 seasons in the minors. First of all, it is extremely rare for a non collegiate player to go through the farm system in less than 3 years. In Bastardo’s first full season in the Phillies system, he went 10-0 with a 2.14 era. Overall, Bastardo is 19-9 with a 2.58 era in 271 innings. What makes Bastardo such an incredible prospect is that he strikes out batters at a very good rate and he refuses to allow batters to get contact on his pitches. In his 3 seasons in the minors, Bastardo has struck out 10 batters per 9 innings and only allowed 6.7 hits per 9 innings. Bastardo appears to be very deceiving as he consistently blows batters away with his 90 mph fastball and makes them then look silly on his changeup. As a reliever, Bastardo appears almost identical to J.C. Romero, as they are both left-handed, throw the same exact pitches with almost identical throwing motions, are the same size, and are both Caribbean born. With both of these players on the team and in the same exact role, it should really benefit Bastardo as he can really learn a lot from Romero.
As long Romero is injured, Escalona will be on the major league squad as he is the next best left-handed option in the Phillies system. Escalona is a good minor league reliever as he has posted a 3.40 era in 306 innings, he has struck out 309 batters, and allowed only 294 hits. Escalona does not have electric stuff as his fastball sits at about 88-89 but he changes speeds affectively enough to get batters out. Escalona is a solid option as the second left-hander out of the pen. He wouldn’t do any worse than Jack Taschner last year.
Carpenter is also interesting because he has made a few spot starts for the Phillies in the past and will be involved in the competition for the 5th starter’s spot in spring training. Carpenter has been a good starter in the Phillies farm system for a few years even though he doesn’t appear to have dominating stuff. In 2009, Carpenter was one of the better pitchers in the International League as he was 11-6 with a 3.35 era. Carpenter usually sits in the low 90s with his fastball and throws an average slider and changeup. He projects as a decent middle reliever and could take Clay Condrey’s previous position.
A long shot to make an appearance in the Phillies bullpen would be double-A starter, Vance Worley. Worley was just drafted last year so he still is very inexperienced but the Phillies front office seems to really like Worley. Worley was being scouted by advanced scouts including Ruben Amaro Jr., during the time of Bastardo’s promotion and then again during the trade deadline. The Phillies would rather take time and develop Worley as a starter but if the other bullpen options fail, Worley could get a look.
It seems like a risky move for a championship contending team to go with a handful of unknown pitchers in the bullpen but talent usually wins out over experience. The Phillies took a similar risk in 2003 on minor league starter Ryan Madson. That year, Madson was undeniably the best reliever the Phillies had and would not have found themselves in a playoff race without him. The current options that the Phillies possess are talented enough to not be concerned about their lack of experience.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Hitting Prosect #8: Zach Collier
I said a while ago that I would be working on a prospect list, but with everything that has gone on in the past few weeks, I have gotten away from that. Worry not, I am back to the prospect list. I left off with Steven Susdorf as my #9 hitting prospect. With my eighth selection, I continue with another outfield prospect from the 2008 draft, Zach Collier.
Collier was drafted by the Phillies in the first round, 34th overall, in the 2008 draft out of Chino Hills HS in California. Collier is a classic Phillies draft choice as he is a raw but toolsy player. Collier could become an all-star caliber outfielder or just aspire to publish a book titled “another guy’s life in the minor leagues.” Collier is a very athletic outfielder who projects to have plus speed, plus power, a plus arm, a plus bat, and a plus glove. Collier is 6’2” and 185 lbs, but is only 19 years old so he should fill out more as he matures. This will add to his power potential down the road.
As Collier is extremely raw, his production in the low minors has been very poor as he has appeared overmatched by single-A pitching in 2009. Collier did fair pretty well in 2008 as he hit .271 in rookie ball but hit only .221 with 1 homerun after being promoted to Williamsport and Lakewood in 2009. Collier did show good speed though, as he swiped 20 bases in 2009. Promoting 18-year olds to single-A is definitely an aggressive promotion, so having a disappointing season is no reason to give up on them as they usually are about 2-3 years younger than their competition. A main reason that high school batters usually don’t fair too well in single-A the first time around is the adjustment to wooden bats, and of course the increased competition from high school. Many batters find it a little bit easier to hit 75 mph fastballs in high school compared to 80 mph curveballs in the minors.
A good comparison for Collier would be Shane Victorino, as they have a very similar skill set. If Collier develops like expected, he will develop 20 homerun ability which is a little better than Victorino. Similar to Collier, Victorino struggled mightily as a 19 year old in single-A, as he only hit .246 at a lower level. Collier played rightfield for Lakewood in 2009 even though he has centerfielder skills. This is because Lakewood had another prospect that is a bit faster, about 56 steals faster. Yes, you heard that correct, Anthony Gose stole 76 bases in 2009. It is tough to compete with that type of speed as another outfielder.
Collier should not be expected to reach the majors anytime soon, but this is not based on lack of talent. Collier has plenty of talent, and almost unlimited potential, but is incredibly raw. It will take a good amount of time for Collier to develop his skills, but as he gains more experience, a severe increase in production should be expected. It is fortunate for Collier and the Phillies that he was drafted so high because it will force the organization to be more patient with him. Organizations that invest high draft picks and money to young players are willing to dedicate more time for them to develop. There is no true need for the Phillies to rush Collier as Domonic Brown, Tyson Gillies, and Anthony Gose are all ahead of him in the organizational depth chart. Due to Collier’s poor performance in 2009 and the Phillies lack of pressure to push him along, he should repeat single-A at Lakewood in 2010.
Collier is going to be a hit or miss type of player. He could be an all-star or never make it to the majors. If Collier has a breakout season in 2010, he could wind up being a top 3 prospect for the Phillies. Collier could also drop out of my top 10 prospects if he repeats his 2009 performance. It is important to understand that Collier could continue to have the on the field production of Eric “the modern day Mario Mendoza” Bruntlett, but if the Phillies are patient with him, Collier should be a successful outfielder for the Phillies down the line.
Hitting Prospects
8.) Zach Collier
9.) Stephen Susdorf
10.) Kyrell Hudson
Collier was drafted by the Phillies in the first round, 34th overall, in the 2008 draft out of Chino Hills HS in California. Collier is a classic Phillies draft choice as he is a raw but toolsy player. Collier could become an all-star caliber outfielder or just aspire to publish a book titled “another guy’s life in the minor leagues.” Collier is a very athletic outfielder who projects to have plus speed, plus power, a plus arm, a plus bat, and a plus glove. Collier is 6’2” and 185 lbs, but is only 19 years old so he should fill out more as he matures. This will add to his power potential down the road.
As Collier is extremely raw, his production in the low minors has been very poor as he has appeared overmatched by single-A pitching in 2009. Collier did fair pretty well in 2008 as he hit .271 in rookie ball but hit only .221 with 1 homerun after being promoted to Williamsport and Lakewood in 2009. Collier did show good speed though, as he swiped 20 bases in 2009. Promoting 18-year olds to single-A is definitely an aggressive promotion, so having a disappointing season is no reason to give up on them as they usually are about 2-3 years younger than their competition. A main reason that high school batters usually don’t fair too well in single-A the first time around is the adjustment to wooden bats, and of course the increased competition from high school. Many batters find it a little bit easier to hit 75 mph fastballs in high school compared to 80 mph curveballs in the minors.
A good comparison for Collier would be Shane Victorino, as they have a very similar skill set. If Collier develops like expected, he will develop 20 homerun ability which is a little better than Victorino. Similar to Collier, Victorino struggled mightily as a 19 year old in single-A, as he only hit .246 at a lower level. Collier played rightfield for Lakewood in 2009 even though he has centerfielder skills. This is because Lakewood had another prospect that is a bit faster, about 56 steals faster. Yes, you heard that correct, Anthony Gose stole 76 bases in 2009. It is tough to compete with that type of speed as another outfielder.
Collier should not be expected to reach the majors anytime soon, but this is not based on lack of talent. Collier has plenty of talent, and almost unlimited potential, but is incredibly raw. It will take a good amount of time for Collier to develop his skills, but as he gains more experience, a severe increase in production should be expected. It is fortunate for Collier and the Phillies that he was drafted so high because it will force the organization to be more patient with him. Organizations that invest high draft picks and money to young players are willing to dedicate more time for them to develop. There is no true need for the Phillies to rush Collier as Domonic Brown, Tyson Gillies, and Anthony Gose are all ahead of him in the organizational depth chart. Due to Collier’s poor performance in 2009 and the Phillies lack of pressure to push him along, he should repeat single-A at Lakewood in 2010.
Collier is going to be a hit or miss type of player. He could be an all-star or never make it to the majors. If Collier has a breakout season in 2010, he could wind up being a top 3 prospect for the Phillies. Collier could also drop out of my top 10 prospects if he repeats his 2009 performance. It is important to understand that Collier could continue to have the on the field production of Eric “the modern day Mario Mendoza” Bruntlett, but if the Phillies are patient with him, Collier should be a successful outfielder for the Phillies down the line.
Hitting Prospects
8.) Zach Collier
9.) Stephen Susdorf
10.) Kyrell Hudson
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Is Happ the Next Kendrick?
Can a player's public perception be affected solely by another player's performance? In sports, athletes like to believe that they have control over how they perform and how the public views them. Philadelphian's beg to differ.
J.A. Happ put together an impressive performance in 2008, as he took over the starting duties of the failing Kyle Kendrick. Without Happ and his 2.32 era over those 4 starts, the Phillies might have never had the opportunity to breeze through the 2008 playoffs. Happ then continued to fight for a full time rotational spot in 2009, but was unfortunately inserted into the bullpen where he posted a 2.59 era. The Phillies finally realized their mistake on May 23rd, and put Happ in the rotation where he finished the season with a 2.92 era. It has been 17 seasons since a Phillies starting pitcher has posted an era that low. One would think that the public perception of a pitcher with those numbers early in his career would be unanimously high. Wrong?
Due to the recent performance of Kyle Kendrick, all successful rookie pitchers for the Phillies will be continually questioned until the day that they officially retire. If Kendrick was not part of the Phillies organization, Philadelphia would probably be praising Happ as the next Cy Young. That is not the case, instead, fans will continue to wait until he falters. They will continue to say "the league will adjust to him," or, "there's no book on him yet." Happ has pitched over 200 innings in his major league career. The MLB isn't that slow to adjust to players. Happ has appeared in 44 career games. There is more than enough game tape developed on Happ for batters to figure out what exactly he's doing out there.
The comparisons between the two pitchers are just ridiculous as they almost have nothing in common. When attempting to initially compare Happ and Kendrick, they pitch from completely different sides of the plate, and they share only one pitch. When comparing their rookie seasons, Happ had a better era, more innings, less hits per inning, more strikeouts per inning, less walks per inning, do I need to go on. How about PRAR, the measure of total value a pitcher provides, is the best utility when comparing pitchers. Happ's 2009 PRAR (41)was almost double that of Kendrick's 2007 PRAR (21).
It is true about how rookies can appear as if they are overachieving based on the league's lack of familiarity to the player. But that has to be viewed as the exception to the rule, not the rule itself. With more and more information available to players and coaches such as advanced statistics, scouting reports, and game film, it doesn't take long for the league to catch up to young players. It took the league less than 150 innings to catch up to Kendrick. If the league were to catch up to Happ, it would have happened already.
Kendrick failed in his second season because he didn't have enough reliable pitches to throw. Because of this, batters were able to sit on his sinker which allowed them to consistently hit Kendrick hard. Happ does not have this issue at all. Happ throws 4 quality pitches; a 4-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Happ also has the ability to throw all of these pitches for strikes. Like most pitchers he works off of his fastball, but what makes Happ so effective is that he throws two separate fastballs that have two separate motions. This does not allow hitters to square up on the ball, even if they are able to recognize fastball. Happ has shown the ability to work every area of the strikezone which makes him even harder to anticipate by batters. The way Happ pitches and approaches the game makes him very easy to compare to another Phillies ace. I mean Mariners ace. Yup, that's a Cliff Lee comparison. They both are lefthanded, throw the same exact pitches, and utilize all areas of the strikezone. If Happ had been in the starting rotation the entire season, Happ and Lee would have possessed the same 2009 VORP. The only reason that Lee holds a higher VORP over Happ is the difference in innings pitched. When Lee and Happ were at the same amount of innings, 166, they shared the same exact 2009 VORP of 46.7.
Another perception of Happ is that he possesses a low ceiling and is not going to improve from where he currently is. First of all, does Happ really need to improve any more from what he currently is? A 2.93 era is exactly Pedro Martinez's career era. I'd be o.k. with a Pedro Martinez era in the Phillies rotation. Obviously I am not comparing the two, just displaying how affective he's been.
Kyle Drabek was widely acknowledged as the best pitching prospect and had the highest ceiling in the Phillies' farm system. I am not disagreeing that he was the best pitching prospect in the Phillies' farm system. Fans and sportswriters all around the Philadelphia area will claim that Drabek is the better of the two down the road. I beg to differ, again. Drabek has an overpowering fastball and an amazing curveball, but that is about it as his changeup is a mediocre pitch at best. I do believe that Drabek will be a very good major league pitcher, but if you compare his minor league numbers to Happ's, they don't appear as impressive as many would think. Up to this point in Drabek's career, he has posted a 3.70 era, 8.1 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 7.6 SO/9. Throughout Happ's minorleague career, he posted a 3.34 era, 7.5 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 9.3 SO/9. As you can see, Happ has outperformed Drabek in almost every possible pitching statistic. Drabek could have a better career than Happ in the end, but based on their minorleague careers, it shouldn't be concluded that Drabek was the better long-term option.
Obviously not all Philadelphia fans have these opinions of Happ, but the beliefs do exist and I felt the need to address it, and shut them down.
J.A. Happ put together an impressive performance in 2008, as he took over the starting duties of the failing Kyle Kendrick. Without Happ and his 2.32 era over those 4 starts, the Phillies might have never had the opportunity to breeze through the 2008 playoffs. Happ then continued to fight for a full time rotational spot in 2009, but was unfortunately inserted into the bullpen where he posted a 2.59 era. The Phillies finally realized their mistake on May 23rd, and put Happ in the rotation where he finished the season with a 2.92 era. It has been 17 seasons since a Phillies starting pitcher has posted an era that low. One would think that the public perception of a pitcher with those numbers early in his career would be unanimously high. Wrong?
Due to the recent performance of Kyle Kendrick, all successful rookie pitchers for the Phillies will be continually questioned until the day that they officially retire. If Kendrick was not part of the Phillies organization, Philadelphia would probably be praising Happ as the next Cy Young. That is not the case, instead, fans will continue to wait until he falters. They will continue to say "the league will adjust to him," or, "there's no book on him yet." Happ has pitched over 200 innings in his major league career. The MLB isn't that slow to adjust to players. Happ has appeared in 44 career games. There is more than enough game tape developed on Happ for batters to figure out what exactly he's doing out there.
The comparisons between the two pitchers are just ridiculous as they almost have nothing in common. When attempting to initially compare Happ and Kendrick, they pitch from completely different sides of the plate, and they share only one pitch. When comparing their rookie seasons, Happ had a better era, more innings, less hits per inning, more strikeouts per inning, less walks per inning, do I need to go on. How about PRAR, the measure of total value a pitcher provides, is the best utility when comparing pitchers. Happ's 2009 PRAR (41)was almost double that of Kendrick's 2007 PRAR (21).
It is true about how rookies can appear as if they are overachieving based on the league's lack of familiarity to the player. But that has to be viewed as the exception to the rule, not the rule itself. With more and more information available to players and coaches such as advanced statistics, scouting reports, and game film, it doesn't take long for the league to catch up to young players. It took the league less than 150 innings to catch up to Kendrick. If the league were to catch up to Happ, it would have happened already.
Kendrick failed in his second season because he didn't have enough reliable pitches to throw. Because of this, batters were able to sit on his sinker which allowed them to consistently hit Kendrick hard. Happ does not have this issue at all. Happ throws 4 quality pitches; a 4-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and curveball. Happ also has the ability to throw all of these pitches for strikes. Like most pitchers he works off of his fastball, but what makes Happ so effective is that he throws two separate fastballs that have two separate motions. This does not allow hitters to square up on the ball, even if they are able to recognize fastball. Happ has shown the ability to work every area of the strikezone which makes him even harder to anticipate by batters. The way Happ pitches and approaches the game makes him very easy to compare to another Phillies ace. I mean Mariners ace. Yup, that's a Cliff Lee comparison. They both are lefthanded, throw the same exact pitches, and utilize all areas of the strikezone. If Happ had been in the starting rotation the entire season, Happ and Lee would have possessed the same 2009 VORP. The only reason that Lee holds a higher VORP over Happ is the difference in innings pitched. When Lee and Happ were at the same amount of innings, 166, they shared the same exact 2009 VORP of 46.7.
Another perception of Happ is that he possesses a low ceiling and is not going to improve from where he currently is. First of all, does Happ really need to improve any more from what he currently is? A 2.93 era is exactly Pedro Martinez's career era. I'd be o.k. with a Pedro Martinez era in the Phillies rotation. Obviously I am not comparing the two, just displaying how affective he's been.
Kyle Drabek was widely acknowledged as the best pitching prospect and had the highest ceiling in the Phillies' farm system. I am not disagreeing that he was the best pitching prospect in the Phillies' farm system. Fans and sportswriters all around the Philadelphia area will claim that Drabek is the better of the two down the road. I beg to differ, again. Drabek has an overpowering fastball and an amazing curveball, but that is about it as his changeup is a mediocre pitch at best. I do believe that Drabek will be a very good major league pitcher, but if you compare his minor league numbers to Happ's, they don't appear as impressive as many would think. Up to this point in Drabek's career, he has posted a 3.70 era, 8.1 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 7.6 SO/9. Throughout Happ's minorleague career, he posted a 3.34 era, 7.5 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 9.3 SO/9. As you can see, Happ has outperformed Drabek in almost every possible pitching statistic. Drabek could have a better career than Happ in the end, but based on their minorleague careers, it shouldn't be concluded that Drabek was the better long-term option.
Obviously not all Philadelphia fans have these opinions of Happ, but the beliefs do exist and I felt the need to address it, and shut them down.
Monday, December 21, 2009
The Future of Jayson Werth
I am here to regrettably admit that I was wrong on the contract statuses of Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. I originally stated that Rollins and Victorino would become free agent eligible after 2010. Rollins signed a contract extension with the Phillies in 2005 that expires at the end of 2010 but I failed to acknowledge the 2011 club option attached to the end of that. There is no reason to discuss what the Phillies will be doing with that option, as the Phillies have already exercised the 2011 option which is worth $8.5 million. Shane Victorino, on the other hand, has an additional year of arbitration, past this year.
With Victorino still being arbitration eligible for 2011, it makes the decision to lose Werth to free agency, look easier. It would seem to be a simple decision, tender Victorino, and replace Werth with highly touted prospect, Domonic Brown. If the Phillies were to go this route, it would make very good business sense but not necessarily great baseball sense. Tendering Victorino in 2011 would probably cost the Phillies about $7-8 million but it really comes down to how valuable the arbitrators view him.
Jayson Werth was one of the best corner outfielders in the league last year and is currently being severely underpaid. Werth got paid only $2.5 million in 2009 while posting the highest VORP of any rightfielder in the National League. When compared to Alex Rodriguez and his $32 million 2009 salary, Werth had 6 more homeruns, 1 less RBI, and 20 more runs. Werth is one of the most valuable players on the Phillies due to his offensive production and defensive skills. But what makes Werth so valuable to the Phillies is that he brings a much needed right-handed bat to the middle of the batting order. It is generally accepted that top prospect, Domonic Brown, will be replacing Werth if he leaves after 2010. It makes sense because Brown is a very similar player to Werth and has shown all the tools necessary to become an all-star at the major league level. Even though Brown is by far the best outfield prospect the Phillies have had since Pat “the bait” Burrell, and should be ready to replace Werth in 2011, he is not the correct replacement for Jayson Werth. This has nothing to do Brown’s abilities or the type of player he is, it is solely on the fact that replacing the Phillies’ only right-handed power bat with a left-handed rookie would dismantle the balance of the lineup.
There is no telling what the 2011 free agent market is going to hold or what type of contract Werth could expect, if and when he gets there. Jason Bay, a corner outfielder at a similar age and with similar 2009 numbers, is rumored to have been offered a $75 million contract over 5 years from the New York Mets. For the mathematically challenged, that is $15 million per year which is about double whatever Victorino can expect in arbitration. This isn’t the greatest comparison ever because the Metropolitans historically overpay for their free agents and are incredibly desperate after the embarrassing 2007, 2008, and 2009 seasons. If Werth does become a free agent in 2011 and repeats his 2009 success, a $75 million contract would not be out of the question. Aaron Rowand got $80 million in 2007, albeit that was in a better economy and is one of the worst contracts in baseball. If Werth has any inkling that he can obtain a contract of that size, then there is no way that he will be sharing a locker room with a 7 foot fuzzy green “thing,” past 2010.
When it comes down to it, the Phillies will have to decide long-term between Victorino and Werth and who fits better into the organization. The departure of Victorino seems to be a radical idea as he is an all-star, a gold glove winner, a world champion, and is under team control at a moderate price tag. Victorino was one of the building blocks for the Phillies when they turned their franchise around in 2007, but if you look at the moves that the Phillies have made in the past month, Victorino stands as the most expendable position player. Victorino has already allegedly lost his spot in the batting order due to the Placido Polanco signing. The Phillies also traded away the perfect 2011 replacement to Jayson Werth, in Michael Taylor. And after all the trades were completed, only one position player was returned to Philadelphia, a centerfielder in Tyson Gillies.
There is no questioning the value that Jayson Werth brings to the 2-time reigning National League Champions, and there is no questioning that the Phillies would love to continue with Werth past 2010. Based on how the Phillies’ major league and minor league teams are currently setup, Werth holds significantly more value than Victorino and should be kept long-term over him. I am not naïve, I understand that there can only be so many $10+ million players on one team. If the Phillies feel they can lock Werth up long-term without getting financial warnings from their accountants, then they must do this. By resigning Werth, Victorino then could not be offered arbitration in 2011 and would be pushed to free agency. Brown represents a much better replacement for Victorino than he does for Werth. The Phillies should start making an attempt to resign Werth now, at least at a preliminary level. If it gets to the end of the 2010 season and Werth is still playing under his original contract, then Werth will hit the free agent market and will be lost forever.
With Victorino still being arbitration eligible for 2011, it makes the decision to lose Werth to free agency, look easier. It would seem to be a simple decision, tender Victorino, and replace Werth with highly touted prospect, Domonic Brown. If the Phillies were to go this route, it would make very good business sense but not necessarily great baseball sense. Tendering Victorino in 2011 would probably cost the Phillies about $7-8 million but it really comes down to how valuable the arbitrators view him.
Jayson Werth was one of the best corner outfielders in the league last year and is currently being severely underpaid. Werth got paid only $2.5 million in 2009 while posting the highest VORP of any rightfielder in the National League. When compared to Alex Rodriguez and his $32 million 2009 salary, Werth had 6 more homeruns, 1 less RBI, and 20 more runs. Werth is one of the most valuable players on the Phillies due to his offensive production and defensive skills. But what makes Werth so valuable to the Phillies is that he brings a much needed right-handed bat to the middle of the batting order. It is generally accepted that top prospect, Domonic Brown, will be replacing Werth if he leaves after 2010. It makes sense because Brown is a very similar player to Werth and has shown all the tools necessary to become an all-star at the major league level. Even though Brown is by far the best outfield prospect the Phillies have had since Pat “the bait” Burrell, and should be ready to replace Werth in 2011, he is not the correct replacement for Jayson Werth. This has nothing to do Brown’s abilities or the type of player he is, it is solely on the fact that replacing the Phillies’ only right-handed power bat with a left-handed rookie would dismantle the balance of the lineup.
There is no telling what the 2011 free agent market is going to hold or what type of contract Werth could expect, if and when he gets there. Jason Bay, a corner outfielder at a similar age and with similar 2009 numbers, is rumored to have been offered a $75 million contract over 5 years from the New York Mets. For the mathematically challenged, that is $15 million per year which is about double whatever Victorino can expect in arbitration. This isn’t the greatest comparison ever because the Metropolitans historically overpay for their free agents and are incredibly desperate after the embarrassing 2007, 2008, and 2009 seasons. If Werth does become a free agent in 2011 and repeats his 2009 success, a $75 million contract would not be out of the question. Aaron Rowand got $80 million in 2007, albeit that was in a better economy and is one of the worst contracts in baseball. If Werth has any inkling that he can obtain a contract of that size, then there is no way that he will be sharing a locker room with a 7 foot fuzzy green “thing,” past 2010.
When it comes down to it, the Phillies will have to decide long-term between Victorino and Werth and who fits better into the organization. The departure of Victorino seems to be a radical idea as he is an all-star, a gold glove winner, a world champion, and is under team control at a moderate price tag. Victorino was one of the building blocks for the Phillies when they turned their franchise around in 2007, but if you look at the moves that the Phillies have made in the past month, Victorino stands as the most expendable position player. Victorino has already allegedly lost his spot in the batting order due to the Placido Polanco signing. The Phillies also traded away the perfect 2011 replacement to Jayson Werth, in Michael Taylor. And after all the trades were completed, only one position player was returned to Philadelphia, a centerfielder in Tyson Gillies.
There is no questioning the value that Jayson Werth brings to the 2-time reigning National League Champions, and there is no questioning that the Phillies would love to continue with Werth past 2010. Based on how the Phillies’ major league and minor league teams are currently setup, Werth holds significantly more value than Victorino and should be kept long-term over him. I am not naïve, I understand that there can only be so many $10+ million players on one team. If the Phillies feel they can lock Werth up long-term without getting financial warnings from their accountants, then they must do this. By resigning Werth, Victorino then could not be offered arbitration in 2011 and would be pushed to free agency. Brown represents a much better replacement for Victorino than he does for Werth. The Phillies should start making an attempt to resign Werth now, at least at a preliminary level. If it gets to the end of the 2010 season and Werth is still playing under his original contract, then Werth will hit the free agent market and will be lost forever.
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