Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Phillies Sign Ross Gload

Late Tuesday night, the Phillies signed outfielder Ross Gload to a 2-year contract. Gload is primarily used as a lefthanded pinch hitter but can play the outfield and firstbase. As a Phillie, Gload will be taking on the duties of Matt Stairs as a late inning lefthanded bat off the bench. Stairs will probably still be in spring training as a minor league free agent, but it would be a surprise if he won one of the final roster spots.

Gload is 33 years old and has played 8 majorleague seasons with the Cubs, Rockies, White Sox, Royals and Marlins. He is a career .283 hitter with 28 career homeruns. Gload is a good contact hitter with decent power coming off the bench. This completes the Phillies offseason quest to fill their bench as Gload will be the 5th outfielder behind Ben Francisco.

The only thing left to address is the bullpen and possibly a 5th starter. I doubt the Phillies are really willing to spend money on a starter so the bullpen is the last and possibly most important need.

As I stated previously, Lyon would be a great addition but it is reported that he could be priced too high for the Phillies. With Romero and Eyre both being uncertain pitchers in 2010, the Phillies could pursue a lefthanded relief pitcher. Charlie Manuel did say he is fine with Bastardo and Escalona to begin the season, but I would still be surprised if the Phillies didn't get any insurance for those 2 pitchers. Ron Mahay is a possible lefty reliever that could attract attention, he is a 38 year old lefthanded relief pitcher with a career 3.8 ERA.

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Hitting Prospect #9: Steve Susdorf

Outfielder Steve Susdorf is a lefthanded hitting prospect who is very similar to pitching prospect Michael Cisco. Like Cisco, he is not highly touted based on his perceived limited ceiling, but he has performed very well in his short minorleague career. Susdorf was drafted in the 19th round in 2008 out of Fresno State. The knock on Susdorf is that since he played four seasons at Fresno State, he began his professional career at an older age. Susdorf is currently 23 years old and finished the 2009 season at Reading.

Susdorf is a great contact hitter but does not hit for much power and has average skills in the outfield. In fact, after being promoted to Reading later in the season, Susdorf split time between LF and DH. This does not mean that he is a bad outfielder though, as Reading had a very good defensive outfield with Domonic Brown, Quintin Berry, and Mike Spidale.

Susdorf has hit .313 in his 2 years in the minors and has been promoted very quickly throughout the system due to his success and maturity. He played exceptionally well in 2008 especially in the beginning of the season where he played in Lakewood and Clearwater and hit .333 and .371 respectively. Towards the end of the season he was promoted to Reading and his success tailed off quite a bit and only hit .221 in 24 games. This drop off in production could have been due to the increase in competition or a player hitting the late season wall. I believe that it was a little bit of both in Susdorf's case as this was his first full season in the minors and has never played this late into the baseball season.

To give a little bit more background on Susdorf, he had an incredible career at Fresno State, most notably as a senior. In his last season as a Bulldog, Susdorf hit an amazing .343 with 13 homeruns, 88RBIs, and 32 doubles. The overall statistics may not seem very impressive but keep in mind that the college season is much shorter and he played in only 77 games. To develop a better comparison, if Susdorf's 2007 season was projected out to a 162 game season, his statistics would increase by a significant margin. He would have hit .342 with 27 homeruns, 185 RBIs, and 67 doubles.

Even though Susdorf is an older prospect and doesn't appear to possess great long-term potential, one cannot ignore his success up to this point in his baseball career. The thing that goes against Susdorf the most is that he plays the corner outfield which doesn't bode well for him as both Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown are currently blocking his way to the majors. In all likelihood, Susdorf will make it to the majors in a different organization. I believe that Susdorf has the ability to have a successful major league career and if he develops well he could become an average Major League starter. If Susdorf stalls in his development I believe he will project as a Greg Dobbs type player. Susdorf will start the 2010 season in Reading and will be given the opportunity to be promoted to Lehigh Valley towards the end of the season. Susdorf played at three different levels in 2008, so the Phillies organization does not seem to be concerned with challenging him.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

How Polanco Affects the Lineup

.266, .249, .246, .211, and .248. Those are the batting averages of the Phillies third basemen over the past 5 years. With the signing of Placido Polanco the Phillies finally have brought some form of legitimacy to the thirdbase position since Scott Rolen. Fortunately for the Phillies, this third baseman will not flee to Canada in efforts to acquire national health care. But in Rolen's defense, he clearly needed that as he hasn't played an injury free season since 2006. Polanco is a career .303 hitter and is one of the most consistent hitters in the majors. He is also one of the toughest players to strikeout as he rarely strikes out more than 40 times in a season. Based on his style of hitting, Polanco is suited perfectly for the second position in the lineup which presents an interesting dilemma for Charlie Manuel.

Going into the offseason, the Phillies appeared satisfied with the top of their lineup. Rollins and Victorino have been igniting the potent Phillies lineup the past 3 seasons. The acquisition of Polanco means that these three players will occupy the 1, 2, and 7 positions in the lineup.

Typically, the 7 hitter in the lineup will have a lower batting average but will display good power. The Phillies do not have a great need to fill the 7 hole with a power hitter as they had 4 players hit over 30 homeruns in 2009 and are guaranteed to pace the NL in homeruns, again. The Phillies have never been an organization to build their team in typical fashion so why start now.

The most probable scenario on how the lineup will be setup is Jimmy Rollins leading off, followed by Polanco, and Victorino will be moved down to the 7th spot. In the end, it won't matter where these three players hit as all three are good professional hitters that can generally be inserted anywhere throughout the lineup.

When carefully analyzing these three players it would make sense theoretically for the Phillies to remove Jimmy Rollins from the leadoff position. It is imperative that the top 2 hitters in a lineup have high on-base percentages while placing players with better power numbers lower in the lineup. While taking this into effect, Victorino and Polanco should be placed first and second in the lineup and Rollins should be dropped to 7th. Rollins historically owns low on-base percentages but has improved his power numbers significantly in the past 3 seasons.

Jimmy Rollins may be the hardest player on the Phillies roster to analyze as he can be the best player one week and the worst player the next. Many people will acknowledge that Rollins had a disappointing 2009 season. Whether Rollins can revisit his 2007 MVP season is unknown. If Rollins 2009 season does not prove to be an anomaly, then he he presents the best fit for the 7th spot in the Phillies lineup. Rollins had a sub .300 OBP while hitting an impressive 21 homeruns and 43 doubles in 2009.

As Rollins statistically proves to be the best fit for the 7th spot in the lineup, moving Rollins to that position should and never will happen. Of all major American sports, baseball is the most statistically analyzed sport. In this scenario, statistically comparing these players is the incorrect approach. Removing Rollins from the leadoff position would adversely affect the Phillies offense. Even though it makes sense based on Rollins statistics to drop him in the lineup, Rollins performs worse along with the Phillies offense, when he is removed from the leadoff position. This can be easily compared to the Yankees scenario when they acquired Alex Rodriguez in 2004. I promise this will be the last time I compare these two organizations. In any matter, it would have made sense for the Yankees to place A-Roid at the SS position as he is a much better defensive SS than Derek Jeter, but they couldn't do this because it would affect the organization too much as Jeter was the leader of the Yankees.

This is one of the rare situations where batting statistics should be ignored. Rollins needs to be the leadoff hitter for the Phillies because when he succeeds as a leadoff hitter, the Phillies are almost an unbeatable team. In 2009, the Phillies were an astounding 61-19 when Rollins scored a run. Whether you are J-Roll fan or not, you cannot disagree that he is the leader of the team and demoting him in any fashion would hurt the Phillies offense. This is why I believe the Phillies never seriously considered Chone Figgins, irrelevant of his reported high price tag.

With the lack mobility of Rollins throughout the lineup, Polanco deserves the 2nd position because he posts a higher batting average while Victorino can hit with significantly more power. Victorino hit only 10 homeruns in 2009 but being placed lower in the lineup should change his approach to hitting. If Victorino is asked to place an emphasis on power over batting average, I believe he has the ability to be a 20 homerun hitter. There are certain hitters that have the ability to hit with more power in this league but choose not to because it benefits the team more when they place an emphasis on their on-base percentage. Victorino is one of those players and when placing him in the 7th hole for 162 games, fans should see a surprising rise in his power numbers.

After everything is taken into account, the Phillies will appear a little different offensively but will be much better for it. Now just imagine if Carlos Ruiz could play the regular season like he plays the postseason. The Phillies would then be too good for the National League and should be allowed to start their own league called the "Let Me Know When the World Series Starts League."

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Phillies Sign Placido Polanco

In the shadows of the 76ers bringing back Allen Iverson, the Phillies felt it necessary to continue the Philadelphia trend by reacquiring Placido Polanco. It is being announced that the Phillies have signed Placido Polanco, 34, to a 3 year, $18 million contract with a mutual option for a fourth year. Polanco will not bring as much hype as the addition of Iverson but also won't be bringing enough domestic violence charges to fill Citizens Bank Park. Nonetheless, Polanco will be a welcome addition to the Phillies as he is good fielder, a good hitter, and is a popular teammate.

As many fans will remember, Polanco was a fan favorite in Philadelphia for all of 4 seasons as he was a welcome replacement to Scott "that's not in my contract" Rolen. Polanco is a career .303 hitter but doesn't hit with great power as he averages less than 10 homeruns a season. It is promising that Polanco's two best power seasons were in 2003 and 2004 as a part of the Phillies. During those two season, Polanco blasted 14 and 17 homeruns respectively.

Polanco was by far the safest free agent within the thirdbase class as he is a model of consistency in terms of hitting. As previously stated, he is a career .303 hitter, and in 2009 he hit .285 which was his lowest batting average since hitting .277 in 1999. Even though Polanco is a very good player, the signing isn't without question, as Polanco has been a second baseman his entire career but will be expected to play exclusively at third in 2010. Polanco has only played 1 game at thirdbase since being traded to the Tigers in 2005. Polanco has played a total of 321 games at thirdbase, but that was primarily at the beginning of his career, in St. Louis. While at secondbase, Polanco has won the AL gold glove two of the previous three years. Defensively speaking, Polanco is very quick, has great range, and has a very accurate arm. The only aspect of Polanco's abilities that can be put into question is his arm strength as he is moving across the diamond and will have to throw much further. With how quickly Polanco signed and both parties understanding the defensive situation, it doesn't seem that anybody is having any doubts about Polanco's ability to play thirdbase in 2010.

The Phillies organization seems to be really turning a corner in their management style. Maybe it has something to do with Ruben Amaro, but this is two consecutive offseasons where they have signed players, in their mid-30's, to long-term deals. In the past the Phillies have avoided taking risks on such players, but in Polanco's case, he does not appear to be as risky as most 34-year old baseball players. Polanco is a professional hitter who does not hit for high power numbers, instead he relies on the ability to make contact with the ball on a consistent basis. That is a skill that rarely deteriorates as a player becomes older. This is relevant in his statistics as last year he posted a career high in RBIs, 72, while only striking out 42 times. In the next three years I would find myself in shock if Polanco has declined much at all.

Overall, I believe everybody is going to be pleased about this signing as he will provide good defense at third and bring a well above average bat to the plate. There is something to say about bringing players back to an organization. Philadelphia seems to be saying that a lot, nowadays. Who knows, maybe the Eagles will be signing Randall Cunningham.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Poll Closed: 5th Rotation Spot

The 5th rotation spot poll is complete and Jamie Moyer predictably won with Drabek coming in a close second.

Jamie Moyer - 5
Kyle Kendrick - 2
Andrew Carpenter - 2
Kyle Drabek - 4
Pedro Martinez - 0
Other - 2

Jamie was hospitalized recently due to ailments related to his groin surgery and will undergoe minor knee surgery next month. Based on these events, Jamie Moyer will not be able to return by the beginning of spring training. Due to this it is rumored that the Phillies may pursue a cheap starting option such as John Smoltz.

I personally don't understand these rumors because nothing makes sense about it. I just hope that the Phillies organization has a strong legal team as Smoltz will be taking legal action against the leftfield wall more times than Ryan Howard strikes out in a season. It also can't be overlooked that the Phillies are trying to add players that can compete at a higher level than Adam Eaton. Unfortunately, team Smoltz has decided to put themselves in the Adam Eaton league of pitchers after not retiring 3 years and 5 surgeries ago.

If the Phillies do not make any moves in regards to their starting rotation, Kyle Kendrick should find himself pitching every 5th day in Philadelphia. Well, at least until the Phillies feel Moyer is healthy or Drabek is developed enough.

Phillies Sign Brian Schneider

On Tuesday, the Phillies signed catcher Brian Schneider, to a 2-year deal worth $2.75 million. Schneider is currently 33 years old and is a career .251 hitter with 59 career homeruns. Schneider will serve as the Phillies backup catcher and is a clear improvement over what the Phillies have had in the past. I think this is a great move on the Phillies part and am actually quite surprised by it. Based on the minimal salary that the Phillies offered Juan Castro, I am shocked the Phillies would give almost $3 million to a backup catcher. Not that I believe this is too much money for Schneider, or a backup catcher, I was just expecting the Phillies to pursue a cheaper option. I was also surprised that Schneider signed with the Phillies knowing he would be used only as a backup. Schneider has been a starting catcher for basically his entire career. Excluding last years injury plagued season, Schneider has averaged 430 plate appearances since 2003.

Having a backup catcher who is not anemic at the plate is very rare. This is rare because catchers in general are poor hitters and backup catchers are valued based on their defensive and game calling abilities. Throughout Schneider's career, he has shown the ability to be incredibly durable and has superior defensive skills behind the plate. Over his 10 year career, Schneider averages an FRAR of 21.3 which is incredibly impressive. To give a comparison, Carlos Ruiz who is praised for his defensive abilities, has averaged an FRAR of 22 over the past 3 seasons. For those who are unfamiliar with FRAR, it is Fielding Runs Above Replacement. This represents how many additional runs a player saves or gives up defensively, compared to a replacement player at the same position. Any number above 5 usually represents a solid defensive player at that position.

After this signing, it is likely that the Phillies will move their search onto the bullpen and thirdbase. It is also worth noting that Schneider should ease some concerns about the Phillies' willingness to spend this offseason. Also, the Detroit Tigers did not offer salary arbitration to Placido Polanco, this makes the signing of Polanco more probable as the Phillies would not be forced to lose a draft choice.

Pitching Prosect #9: Michael Cisco

Michael Cisco is a different prospect than many that I have evaluated and will continue to evaluate. When you see prospect lists by such publications as scout.com or baseball America, long-term potential is valued more than actual production. This isn’t necessarily wrong as that is how one is supposed to scout young baseball players. Cisco is a pitcher that has had very good success in his two years in the minors. I will be the first to admit that I am much higher on Cisco than most. He does not have the most electric stuff compared to other minorleague pitchers, but he has much better control than most.

Cisco was drafted in the 36th round in the 2008 MLB draft out of the University of South Carolina. He is the grandson of Galen Cisco, who was a pitching coach for the Phillies in the late 90s, which probably was a reason why the Phillies gave him enough attention to draft him. After being drafted in 2008, he pitched for Williamsport and Lakewood and did nothing but impress. He pitched in 17 games, 7 starts, while posting an incredible ERA of 0.99. As impressive as his sub 1.00 ERA was, he possessed even more impressive control statistics as he only walked 5 batters in over 52 innings. After being promoted to Lakewood, Cisco pitched 35 innings without issuing a walk. The thing to pay attention to when evaluating college prospects is that most college rookies perform well in their first season as many times they are competing against younger high school prospects. Still, his success cannot be ignored.

2009 was a bit more of a struggle for Cisco even though he still performed well. Cisco started the season on the DL as he had an elbow injury even though he did not have surgery. After a few weeks sitting out, Cisco pitched in Clearwater and continued to show the organization that he was well worth being drafted. While in Clearwater he was 7-3 and posted a 3.31 ERA in 73 innings. He also continued his more than impressive control statistics as he only walked 15 batters. These numbers are especially impressive considering he was coming off an injury, as control is always the last thing to come back to a pitcher after being injured. Cisco was eventually promoted to Reading and had some initial difficulties due to the increased competition. The jump from single-A to double-A is the largest jump in the minors and it is very common to see a dip in overall production. Cisco still posted a respectable 4.5 ERA but showed improvement towards the end of the season as he started to feel more comfortable within the Eastern League. I personally saw Cisco multiple times and was originally disappointed when I discovered he was not a Black R&B artist with silver hair while performing to the Thong Song. Nonetheless, Cisco still showed that he consistently attacks the strike zone while being able to throw multiple pitches for strikes.

Cisco will never be defined as a power pitcher but that doesn’t mean he can’t possess the ability to be a successful Major League starter. He is a prototypical sinkerball pitcher as his fastball has good sinking motion and sits in the low 90s, he also consistently throws a good changeup and slider. I hate to throw out overly impressive comparisons for pitchers without incredible stuff but if Cisco continues to show the ability to control multiple pitches while not getting hit on a consistent basis, he could develop into a Brandon Webb type pitcher. If he stalls at all in his pitching development I can’t believe he would be any worse than what Kyle Kendrick currently is. If you have followed my previous posts, Kendrick as a worst case scenario, is nothing to be ashamed of. Cisco will start the year in Reading and will most likely be promoted to Lehigh Valley by year’s end, assuming he continues to develop on his current track.